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Emerging Modules for ESMs: Atmospheric chemistry / Aerosols

Emerging Modules for ESMs: Atmospheric chemistry / Aerosols. For presentation at the Arctic System Model Workshop III David Plummer. Chemistry effects on climate system. Unlike LLGHGs, ozone and aerosols can have important regional forcings. Antarctic ozone depletion.

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Emerging Modules for ESMs: Atmospheric chemistry / Aerosols

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  1. Emerging Modules for ESMs:Atmospheric chemistry / Aerosols For presentation at the Arctic System Model Workshop III David Plummer

  2. Chemistry effects on climate system • Unlike LLGHGs, ozone and aerosols can have important regional forcings

  3. Antarctic ozone depletion • trends over 1969-98 for temperature and geopotential height from radiosonde stations in Antarctica • from Thompson and Solomon, Science, 2002

  4. Antarctic ozone depletion • trends in polar cap temperature (70S to pole) from 2001 to 2050 • Figure 1 from Son et al., Science, 2008

  5. Antarctic ozone depletion • difference in ocean zonal wind stress between runs with and without a prescribed Antarctic ozone depletion • From Lenton et al., GRL, 2009 • decreased uptake of CO2 by 2.3 Pg-C between 1987-2004

  6. Arctic projections • no ozone hole formation • interaction of ozone with NH atmospheric circulation much more complex • active area of research • prescribed, monthly mean vs. prognostic • 21st century temperature trends predicted by a suite of different CCMs • From Butchart et al. (submitted to J. Clim)

  7. Arctic RF • pre-industrial to present day O3 RF at the tropopause • from Mickley et al. 1999 • black carbon • affects on surface albedo

  8. Interaction with other ESM components • experimental evidence for O3 damage to plants • decreased productivity • Sitch et al. 2007 • low and high sensitivity to O3 • reactive nitrogen (NOx) emitted and oxidized to HNO3 • NO3- deposition = important nutrient • OH, H2O2, O3 are powerful oxidants • DMS, SO2, VOCs

  9. Likely situation for GCMs in AR5 • several of the large centres have plans to run transient, coupled runs with interactive chemistry • most likely simplified tropospheric chemistry • prescribed or constrained stratospheric O3 • more consistency in approach to specifying Antarctic ozone trends

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