WorkPackage-2 “Real-Time Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters ”

1. SAFER PROJECT WorkPackage-2“Real-Time EstimationofEarthquake Source Parameters” Coordinator: Aldo Zollo, Università di Napoli Federico II - AMRA scarl

3. GeneralObjective Development, optimization and testing ofalgorithmsfor real-time earthquake location and magnitudeestimationadoptinganevolutionaryapproach.

4. WP2 - Tasks • Task 2.1 • “Real-time methodologies for event detection and location” • Task 2.2 • “Real-time methodologies for magnitude/ moment estimates” • Task 2.3 • “Near real-time processing of seismic arrays for earthquake rapidalert” • Task 2.4 • “Implementation and testing of virtual seismologist expert system” • Task 2.5 • “Application of developed techniques to selected European test sites”

5. Methodologies vs timefrom the eqkorigin Earthquake Earthquake location • E-larms • Array • PRESTo seconds • Tnow • Fault Mapping • VirtSeism • PreSeis • E-larms • RapidSpectralAnalysis • PRESTo • VirtSeism • Teleseismic moment magnitude minutes • PreSeis Earthquakemagnitude hours time

6. Matrix Methods/Data/Partners Methods Data Providers

7. Eqk detection and location : Summary • Approaches: • Real-Time (fewseconds): • Station barycenter (E-larms) • Tnow (Horiuchi) • RTLOC (Satriano et al.) • 3-station triggering (NIEP) • Near-Realtime (tensofsecs minutes): • Earthquake Information Distribution System (EMSC-ORFEUS) • Relative micro-eqk location for fault mapping (IMO) • Array location (NORSAR) • Conclusions: • Accurate eqk location a fewsecsafter the P-waves (<4 stations) • problem: eventsoutside the network • speeddependscritically on the robustnessof data transmission and distribution Data sets and regions Italy Greece Europe Iceland

8. Magnitudeestimation: Summary • Approaches: • Real-Time (fewseconds): • P & S initialamplitude(PRESTo, Taiwan) • P-wavedominantperiod (E-larms, Taiwan) • CAV (Cumulative Absolutevelocity) (KARL, Koeri) • Near-Realtime (tensofsecs minutes): • - Spectralamplitudes (GeoAzur, GFZ) • Conclusions: • A fewsecsafter the P-waves : ±0.7 • Afterabout 10 sec : ± 0.5 • Problems: P-peakdisplacementsaturatesabove M ~ 6.5, dominantperiod largeuncertainty • needofnear source data: accelerograms! Data sets and regions Italy Greece Europe Iceland

9. SAFER test sites Bucharest: National seismic network Regional seismic network Strong motion Arrays Istanbul: EW + RapidResponse network Onsite, based on thresholds Strong motion + broadband EW online, RR offline Naples: Regional network Strong-motion & Short period Athens: Accelerometric network Regional network 2 arrays Cairo: Regional strong motion/sismometricnetworks

10. WP2 researchactivities in SAFER test sites

11. Presentations PRESTo: the PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem in southern Italy (15 min) Satriano C., Zollo A., Iannaccone G., Elia L., Martino C., Lancieri M. and Festa G. (AMRA, Naples) Implementing the Virtual Seismologist Expert System (15 min) G. Cua, M.Fischer, T. Heaton, and S.Wiemer(ETH, Switzerland)  Moved to the afternoon Rapid magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system and the April 25, 2009 Mw= 5.3 event (15min) A.Marmureanu,C.Ionescu,Gh.Marmureanu (NIEP, Romania) Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me (10 min) D. Di Giacomo1, S. Parolai1, H. Grosser (GFZ , Germany)