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Contribution Analysis: An introduction

Contribution Analysis: An introduction. Anita Morrison Scottish Government. Evaluation in Scottish Government. A need to revisit our practice in context of performance management and outcomes-based approach – shift balance from small scale, process evaluation

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Contribution Analysis: An introduction

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  1. Contribution Analysis: An introduction Anita Morrison Scottish Government

  2. Evaluation in Scottish Government • A need to revisit our practice in context of performance management and outcomes-based approach – shift balance from small scale, process evaluation • Building a more ‘strategic’ approach to evaluation planning and delivery - multiple policies / interventions to deliver outcomes • Ensure the right kind of evidence is available – answering questions of effectiveness, contribution, for Spending Review 09 and beyond

  3. Key analytical questions • What progress are we making towards the Purpose, Purpose targets and National Outcomes? • What contribution have our policies and programmes made? • How cost-effective are our policies and programmes? • What are the lessons for future policy intervention /changes in resource allocation? Contribution Analysis

  4. Contribution analysis • Holy grail of attribution…“Builds a reasonably credible case about the difference the program is making.” (John Mayne) • Good contribution analysis is, in effect, theory-based evaluation • Use of logic models and results chains strengthens programme planning and design • Clearly sets out assumptions and external factors • Also strengthens approach to research / analytical planning Developing in a couple of ways in Scotland: contribution of organisations; contribution of policies and programmes

  5. High level outcomes Intermediate outcomes Increased priceReduced incentives Increased sobriety & stability Short-term outcomes Compliance with laws Increased detection rate Alcohol industry Adults with alcohol problems Reach Licensed trade Drivers Taxation,displays, promotions, advertising Enforcement actions Outputs Random breath testing Addiction services Enforcement of planning controls & licensing laws Industry regulation Detox, Intensive support Activities Enforcement of drink driving laws SG, UK govts, EU Inputs Local authorities Vol orgs Police Alcohol – Partner Contributions to Outcomes Improved mental wellbeingReduced inequalities in healthy life expectancyReduced inequalities in alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions BehaviourReduced alcohol consumption levelsLess drunkenness; less drink-driving EnvironmentsPhysical:Reduced exposure to alcohol-related hazardsEconomic: Reduced availability/affordability of alcohol Social: Drunkenness less attractive; sensible drinking thenorm Service uptake & engagement Understanding risks, attitudes to drinking Hazardous and harmful drinkers General public - targeted Preventive services Sensible drinking messages Media campaigns Brief advice Scottish Govt NHS

  6. A Basic Results Chain Program (Results) Chain of Events (Theory of Action) Key Questions WHY? Indirect Influence 7. End results 7. What is our impact on ‘ends’? 6. Practice and behavior change 6. Do we influence [behavioural] change? WHAT? 5. Knowledge, attitude, skill and / or aspirations changes 5. What do people learn? Do we address their needs? Direct Influence 4. Are clients satisfied? How do people learn about us? 4. Reactions WHO? 3. Who do we reach? Who uses / participates? 3. Engagement / involvement Control 2. What do we offer? How do we deliver? 2. Activities and outputs HOW? 1. Inputs 1. How much does our program cost? ($, HR etc) Source: Adapted from Claude Bennett 1979. Taken from Michael Quinn Patton, Utilization-Focused Evaluation: The New Century Text, Thousand Oaks, California, 1997, p 235. 9 steve.montague@pmn.net

  7. Assembling and critiquing the story Multiple sources of evidence to accommodate; can include: • Population based statistics • Survey data • Needs assessments • Process and outcome evaluations • Economic analysis and evaluation • Systematic reviews and other evidence synthesis • International policy and analytical work Baseline and forward look – data /evidence gaps

  8. How do you actually do this in practice? • To date – few ‘live’ examples of contribution analysis applied in the UK – Health Scotland led on this • Scottish Government early work: outcome 15, GES population target, interest on outcome 8, outcome 12 • Sessions to develop and discuss logic model (mix of analysts and policy leads) • Baseline ‘narrative’ and performance story so far • Analytical planning – what data and analysis will we need in the future?

  9. Some tentative conclusions • Outcomes focus is an opportunity to undertake longer-term, more strategic analytical work • Needs input of policy, practice and analytical professionals • Contribution analysis not a panacea – but a tool to help think and discuss policy and service development differently • Does help you to plan any research and analysis required in assessing progress

  10. Over to you…. • Are you using this, or components of this, already? • Can this be applied to outcomes / indicators in Communities? • Or to larger programmes you are evaluating?

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