National River Linking Project Issues Underlying the Water Demand Estimation

1. National River Linking ProjectIssues Underlying the Water Demand Estimation Upali Amarasinghe IWMI Delhi

2. Outline • NRLP – Rationale, Components, Envisaged Benefits and concerns • IWMI’s Analysis of NRLP • Water Availability across river basins • Water Scarcities of river basins • Issues underlying Water Demand projections

3. NLRP - Rationale • NCIWRD’s water demand projections were the basis for inter basin transfers Total Water Demand by 2050 973 – 1180 km3 (low-high scenarios) Irrigation 628-807 km3 Domestic 90-111 km3 Industrial 63-70 km3 Environ. 20 km3 Others 81 km3 Irrigated Area 113-146 Million Hha Grain demand 420 - 494 Million Mt

4. NLRP - Rationale • Key Observations • High water demand > potentially utilizable water resources • Irrigated area ( high demand) > Ultimate potential of 140 M ha Source: http://nwda.gov.in

5. NLRP - Rationale • National Water Development Agency (NWDA) states ….for meeting 450 Million Mt of food grains, the irrigation potential has to be increased by 160 million ha for all crops by 2050….. ….. one of the most effective ways to increase the irrigation potential for increasing food grain production, mitigate flood and droughts and reduce regional imbalances in the availability of water is the interlinking of rivers…… Source: http://nwda.gov.in

6. NLRP – Project Components • Himalayan component • Store, transfer surplus water Brhamaputra and Ganga river basin to west and south through 14 link canals • Peninsular component • Transfer water to water short areas through 16 link canals Source: http://nwda.gov.in

7. NLRP - Envisaged benefits • Transfer 178 km3 of water through 12000 km of link canals • Irrigate 30 million ha • 25 M Ha of Surface, 10 M Ha Groundwater) • 30,000 MW of hydropower • Flood control • Domestic and Industrial water supplies • Navigation • Salinity and pollution control Source: http://nwda.gov.in

8. NLRP – Concerns Contentious issue among the civil society, media, and academics • Project concept itself was dubious • Needs assessment was not adequate • Alternative water management/development options were not fully explored • Environmental water needs, especially of the water surplus basins, were not given attention • Social displacement cost was enormous • Total cost of the project is very huge etc.

9. PHASE ACTIVITIES OUTPUT Phase I 9 Months 11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the Nation Phase II 15 Months Phase II A Phase II B Phase II A Phase II B 16 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop II 7 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop III How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge 2050? How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project Phase III 12 Months Phase III A Phase III B Phase III A Phase III A 14 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop IV 8 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop V If NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050? How best to put into operation the National Perspective Plan Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050 IWMI Analysis of NRLP

10. Water Availability – Spatial Variation

11. Water and Food accounting

12. Water Scarcities

13. Issues Underlying Water Demand projections • Total and regional Population growth • Economic growth, Urbanization and Consumption pattern changes • Economic growth and Domestic, Industrial and service sector water demand • Contribution of Irrigated agriculture to crop productivity growth • Expanding groundwater irrigation, environmental impacts • Potential in Rainfed agriculture and rainwater harvesting • Potential of Crop Diversification and Expanding Worlds food trade • Environmental water demand

14. Issues – Regional Population growth to 2050 i – Visaria & Visaria projections < UN Medium projections ii- New Population projections << could be 40 million less than NCIWRD projections

15. Issues – Regional Population growth • Where would this less growth occur?

16. Issues – Changes in consumption patterns • NCIWRD assumed substantial increase in food grain consumption in projecting total grain demand of 424 to 494 Million Mt. • Assumed 284 Kg/person/year of food grain consumption by 2050 • But, consumption has decreased 182 kg/person in 1991 to 175 kg/person by 2000 – A declining trend or ????

17. Issues – Changes in consumption patterns

18. Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand • NCIWRD’s domestic and Industrial water demand projections seems to be on the low side

19. Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand Per capita demand would increase many fold by 2050.

20. Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield NCIWRD assumptions of grain yield growth • Grain yields in 2050 are low compared with developed countries grain yields ate present. • Are there any scope for increase in water productivity?

21. Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield • What is the contribution of irrigation (surface and groundwater) to crop yield growth?

22. Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield • Groundwater Expansion

23. Issues – Scope for groundwater expansion and its impacts • Scope for expanding groundwater irrigation and then scope for increasing irrigated crop yield ? • What is the potential for increasing groundwater irrigated area without surface irrigation expansion? • What would be the implications of environmental impacts-depleting water tables, salinity, poor quality groundwater- on existing groundwater area?

24. Issues – Changes in rural employment patterns and Cropping patterns • Future trends of rural employments and their impacts on irrigated area expansion and cropping intensity? • NCIWRD assume that livelihood of much of the population depends on agriculture • What would be impact of cropping patterns changes on irrigated area expansion and cropping intensity increase? • NCIWRD assumes 67%-70% of the total crops area under grain crops by 2025 • But the grain crop area as a % of total area has decreased over the last decade and is already below the NCIWRD assumptions.

25. Issues – Rainfed potential • Scope for rainfed crop yield growth with supplemental irrigation? • Scope for supplemental irrigation through rainwater harvesting? • Locations where rainwater harvesting can have negative impacts?

26. Issues –Virtual water trade • Self sufficiency targets and international trade? • NCIWRD assumes national self sufficiency of grains including animal feed? • What are the implications of WTO agreements of agriculture on food trade? • Scope for virtual water trade between basins and between countries?

27. Issues – Environmental Water Demand • NCIWRD estimates of Environemntal water demand is only 20 km3. • Preliminary estimates of minimum river flows to maintain rivers in fair condition is in the order of 475 km3 • What are the environmental water demands of different basins? And How they will affect future water scenarios?

28. Thank You