Fi8000 Valuation of Financial Assets

1. Fi8000Valuation ofFinancial Assets Fall Semester 2009 Dr. Isabel Tkatch Assistant Professor of Finance

2. Currency Exchange Rate (Spot) • A spot currency transaction is an exchange of one currency for another. • The currency exchange rate is a simple conversion factor: • The direct exchange rate is the number of $US to be paid for 1 unit of foreign currency (usually for the £UK and the Euro); • The indirect exchange rate is the number of foreign currency units paid for 1 $US (usually for the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen).

3. Currency Exchange Rate Numeric Example: The exchange rate between the $US and £UK is 1.6757 $US / £UK - i.e. one has to pay $1.6757 for £1 (direct). The same exchange rate can be presented as 1/1.6757 = 0.5968 £UK / $US - i.e. one has to pay £0.5968 for $1 (indirect).

4. Currency Exchange Rate Example continued: The exchange rate between the $US and £UK is 1.6757 $US / £UK. The exchange rate between the $US and J¥ is 0.007331 $US / J¥. What should be the exchange rate between the £UK and the J¥?

5. Currency Arbitrage • There are at least two ways to convert £UK to J¥: • Direct conversion of £UK toJ¥ • Conversion using an intermediary currency: • Convert £UK to $US • Convert $US toJ¥ • If there is no opportunity to make arbitrage profits, both conversion methods must imply the same £UK to J¥ exchange rate.

6. Currency Exchange Rate Example (data): 1.6757 $US/£UK or 0.5968 £UK/$US. 0.007331 $US/J¥ or 136.40 J¥/$US. We will use the no-arbitrage argument to calculate the no-arbitrage £UK/J¥ exchange rate.

7. ¥ Currency Exchange Rate £ J¥/£UK = ? £UK/J¥ = ? 0.5968 £UK/$US 1.6757 $US/£UK $ 0.007331 $US/J¥ 136.40 J¥/$US

8. Currency Exchange Rate Conversion using an intermediary currency: Convert £UK to $US: the price of 1 $US is 0.5968 £UK Convert $US to J¥: the price of 1 J¥ is 0.007331 $US The £UK price of 1 J¥: 0.5968 £UK/$US * 0.007331 $US/J¥ = 0.004375 £UK/J¥

9. Currency Exchange Rate The £UK/J¥ no-arbitrage exchange rate: The £UK/J¥ exchange rate is 0.004375, i.e. the price of 1 J¥ is 0.004375 £UK. The J¥/£UK exchange rate is 1/0.004375 = 228.5641, i.e. the price of 1 £UK is 228.5641J¥.

10. Currency Exchange Arbitrage Example continued: The $US/£UK exchange rate is 1.6757. The $US/J¥ exchange rate is 0.007331. Is there an arbitrage opportunity if the market £UK/J¥ exchange rate is 0.004494? Yes! The £UK/J¥ exchange rate in the market is different from the no-arbitrage rate (two-stage exchange rate): Market: 0.004494 £UK/J¥ > 0.004375 £UK/J¥ :No-arbitrage How can we make arbitrage profits?

11. Currency Exchange Arbitrage Cross currency (triangle) arbitrage strategy: Sell the expensive J¥: convert J¥ to £UK in one step: 1. Sell J¥ for £UK (convert J¥ to £UK) Buy the cheap J¥: convert £UK to J¥ in two steps, using the $US as an intermediary: 2. Buy $US with £UK (convert £UK to $US) 3. Buy J¥ with $US (convert $US to J¥) Note: this is a round trip transaction. You start with J¥ (before step 1) and you end up with J¥ (after step 3).

12. Currency Exchange Arbitrage Cross currency (triangle) arbitrage strategy: Sell the expensive J¥ - direct £UK to J¥ exchange rate: 1. Convert 1 J¥ to 0.004494 £UK. Buy the cheap J¥ - two stages, using the $US as an intermediary: 2. Convert 0.004494 £UK to $US. You will get 0.004494 £UK * 1.6757 $US/£UK = 0.00753 $US. 3. Convert 0.00753 $US to J¥. You will get 0.00753 $US * 136.40 J¥/$US = 1.02717 J¥. Arbitrage profit: you started with 1 J¥ and ended up with 1.02717 J¥.

13. ¥ Currency Exchange Rate £ 0.004494 £UK * 1.6757 $US/£UK = 0.00753 $US 1 J¥ * 0.004494 £UK/J¥ = 0.004494 £UK $ 0.00753 $US * 136.40 J¥/$US = 1.02717 J¥

14. Currency Exchange Arbitrage Cross currency arbitrage strategy (end up with $US): 2. Convert 136.40 J¥ to £UK. You will get 136.40 J¥ * 0.004494 £UK/J¥ = 0.6130 £UK. 3. Convert 0.6130 £UK to $US. You will get 0.6130 £UK * 1.6757 $US/£UK = 1.02717 $US. 1. Convert 1 $US to J¥. You will get 1 $US * 136.40 J¥/$US = 136.40 J¥. Arbitrage profit: you started with 1 $US and ended up with 1.02717 $US: an arbitrage profit of 0.02717 $US.

15. ¥ Currency Exchange Rate £ 0.6130 £UK * 1.6757 $US/£UK = 1.02717 $US 136.40J¥ * 0.004494 £UK/J¥ = 0.6130 £UK $ Start Here: 1 $US * 136.40 J¥/$US = 136.40J¥

16. Currency Exchange Rate (Forward) • Forward or Futures Contracts • An agreement between a buyer and a seller, to trade at a specific date in the future, a specific quantity of a specific currency for an agreed exchange rate. • Forward – tailored OTC market contracts for creditworthy traders and large trades. • Futures – formal markets of standardized contracts (International Monetary Market in Chicago, London International Financial Futures Exchange).

17. Pricing Currency Forwards • There are at least two ways to invest money in a risk-free asset for one year: • Domestic risk-free investment • Buy US Treasury Bills • Foreign risk-free investment • Convert $US for foreign currency • Buy foreign risk-free bonds for 1 year • Convert the foreign currency back to $US (forward contract) • If there is no opportunity to make arbitrage profits, both investment strategies should have the same dollar denominated risk-free return.

18. Covered Interest Arbitrage Numeric Example: Suppose you would like to invest $100,000 in a risk-free security. In the US the annual risk free rate is 5.00%, while in the UK the annual risk free rate is 5.20%. Is there an arbitrage opportunity? – Find a way to compare the domestic and foreign investment strategies.

19. Covered Interest Arbitrage Numeric Example Continued: We need the spot and forward (one year) $US/£UK exchange rates to answer that question. Note that if we do not use a forward contract to “lock in” the exchange rate, the foreign alternative becomes a risky rather than risk-free investment strategy (exchange rate risk). Is there an opportunity to make arbitrage profits, if the spot exchange rate is 1.6750 $US/£UK and the (one year) forward rate is 1.6500 $US/£UK?

20. Comparing the Two Strategies 1. Domestic risk-free investment: 1a. Buy US Treasury Bills

21. Comparing the Two Strategies 2. Foreign risk-free investment: 2a. Convert $US for the foreign currency (£UK) 2b. Buy foreign (£UK denominated) risk-free bonds 2c. Convert the foreign currency (£UK) back to $US (forward rate)

22. Arbitrage Strategy Buy Cheap: Domestic risk-free investment Buy US Treasury Bills  get 5% dollar denominated risk free rate Sell Expensive: Foreign risk-free investment Convert £UK to $US Short sell UK risk-free bonds for 1 year Convert $US back to £UK (forward contract)  pay 3.63% dollar denominated risk free rate

23. Covered Interest Arbitrage

24. No-ArbitrageForward Exchange Rate ( F0($US/£UK) = 1.6718 )

25. No-ArbitrageUK Risk Free Rate ( rUK = 6.5909% )

26. Interest Rate Parity(Covered Interest Arbitrage) Intuition: If two investments are risk-free they must have the same rate of return. Therefore, any difference in the domestic and foreign risk-free rates must be offset by a difference in the spot and forward exchange rates.

27. Interest Rate Parity(Covered Interest Arbitrage) Notation: E0 = spot exchange rate ($US/£UK) or (£UK/$US) F0 = forward exchange rate ($US/£UK) or (£UK/$US) * Note that if you use the £UK/$US (indirect) exchange rate you will also have to reverse the ratio of interest rates.

28. Practice Problems Practice Problem #1 The annual risk-free rate in the US is 5.00% while in Japan it is 3.20%. What should be the spot J¥/$US exchange rate, if the (one year) forward J¥/$US exchange rate is 107.875? Answer: E0(J¥/$US) = 109.7565

29. Practice Problems Practice Problem #2 The annual risk-free rate in the US is 4.60% while in Japan it is 3.50%. The spot J¥/£UK exchange rate is 205.00 The spot $US/£UK exchange rate is 1.8825 The (one year) forward J¥/£UK exchange rate is 204.00 The (one year) forward $US/£UK exchange rate is 1.8900 Describe an arbitrage transaction: write down the strategy in the table format presented in the lecture notes.

30. Practice Problems BKM Ch. 23: 7th Ed.: 10, 12-14. 8th Ed.: 11-12, CFA: 2,3. Practice problems: Forward and futures contracts 1-5; Currency exchange rates 6-9.