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R&D: changing patterns and implications for growth

R&D: changing patterns and implications for growth. Sid Shanks. Goals of the project. Investigate changes in the nature and industry mix of R&D Investigate the drivers of R&D effort Investigate the influence of R&D on industry and national productivity growth.

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R&D: changing patterns and implications for growth

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  1. R&D: changing patterns and implications for growth Sid Shanks

  2. Goals of the project • Investigate changes in the nature and industry mix of R&D • Investigate the drivers of R&D effort • Investigate the influence of R&D on industry and national productivity growth

  3. The long run increase in Australian R&D activity

  4. Average annual growth in GERD and institutional contributions

  5. Business expenditure is the main driver

  6. High growth period: mid-80s to mid-90s

  7. GERD is more ‘market oriented’

  8. Services R&D now rivals manufacturing

  9. Implications for measuring the effect of R&D on productivity? • Significant differences in rates of growth, and differences by time periods across industries: variance in the relationship between R&D & productivity • Impact of changing industry shares in BERD on productivity • Impact of greater ‘market’ orientation of R&D on productivity • More “D” than “R” • Changing relationships over time • Indirect linkages – spillovers and role of domestic R&D in absorption • The ‘two faces’ of R&D

  10. Work-in-progress results • Basic model – • Some encouraging results … but • Problems with robustness of estimates and getting results on some variables of interest (particularly, ‘external’ R&D and spillovers) • Estimation challenges (for example, trending series) • Have only looked at market sector and manufacturing to date • Implications - • ‘Wide band’ on estimates of rates of return to R&D at this stage • Many extensions and issues yet to be investigated: some way to go in getting a “benchmark” set of results

  11. Key points • Long run increase in GERD • Driven mostly by business, but also increasing Higher Education R&D • Growth in service industries particularly strong • Growth in BERD strongest in the reform period • Increased market orientation in all sectors

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