1 / 44

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

World Oil and Gas Resources How much is left? Where is it? How do we find it?. Peter J. McCabe U.S. Geological Survey. APPEA Perth, April 2005. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey. World Energy Production. Other. 400. Hydro. Nuclear. Natural Gas Liquids. 300.

lazar
Download Presentation

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. World Oil and Gas Resources How much is left? Where is it? How do we find it? Peter J. McCabe U.S. Geological Survey APPEA Perth, April 2005 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

  2. World Energy Production Other 400 Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Liquids 300 Quadrillion Btu Crude Oil 200 Natural Gas 100 Coal 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

  3. The Problem with Renewables Annual World Energy Consumption: 411 quads* “Using available renewable energy technologies, an estimated 200 quads of renewable energy could be produced worldwide on about 20% of the land area of the world.” Pimentel and others, 2002, BioScience *Quadrillion (1015) Btu

  4. The future needs some combination of: • Continued fossil fuel supply. • Energy conservation using existing and new technologies. • New technologies to make alternate energy sources (solar, wind, nuclear etc) more economically viable. Alternative: an end to global economic growth.

  5. Hubbert analysis – predicting a cycle of production Known amount of resource = Ultimate cumulative production Production rate Time

  6. 1990 Estimates: Ultimate resource: 6.00 billion barrels Cumulative production: 3.10 billion barrels Australia - Crude Oil Production Thousand barrels/day 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1995 2000

  7. 1990 Estimates: Ultimate resource: 6.00 billion barrels Cumulative production: 3.10 billion barrels Australia - Crude Oil Production Thousand barrels/day 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1995 2000

  8. Australia - Crude Oil Production Thousand barrels/day 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1995 2000

  9. Australia - Crude Oil Production Thousand barrels/day 2005 Estimates: Ultimate resource: ??? Cumulative production: 6.19 billion barrels 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1995 2000

  10. Australia - Crude Oil Production Thousand barrels/day 2005 Estimates: Ultimate resource: 14.2 BBO (USGS, 2000) Cumulative production: 6.19 billion barrels 1965 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1995 2000

  11. Canada - Crude Oil Production and Campbell’s Forecasts of Production Actual Thousand barrels/day 1996 Forecast 1991 Forecast

  12. U.S. - Crude Oil Production and Campbell’s Forecasts of Production Actual Thousand barrels/day 1996 Forecast 1991 Forecast

  13. Resource cycle of production Peak determined by the interaction of supply and demand. No reason why the curve should be symmetrical. Production rate Time

  14. USGS World Energy Assessment 2000 Conventional Hydrocarbons 2659 Exclusive of U.S. 2249 Numbers in BBOE (Billions Barrels of Oil Equivalent) Reserve Growth Undiscovered Remaining Reserves 324 Cumulative Production to Date Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids

  15. World Conventional Oil (Including U.S.) 2029 Remaining recoverable oil* 68% 952 Cumulative Production to end of 2004 32% Billions of Barrels * From USGS 2000, USGS 1995, and MMS 1996

  16. Remaining Global Oil Resources ? Future resources Oil in U.S. – undiscovered & reserve growth# Reserve growth in conventional fields (outside U.S.)* Undiscovered conventional oil (outside U.S)* 2029 billion barrels Reserves of conventional oil (outside U.S.)* *USGS 2000 # USGS 1995 and MMS 1996,

  17. Remaining Global Oil Resources Future resources: Unconventional Conventional small fields Conventional in frontier areas Reserve growth beyond 2025 ? Canadian oil sands reserves‡ Oil in U.S. – undiscovered & reserve growth# Reserve growth in conventional fields (outside U.S.)* Undiscovered conventional oil (outside U.S)* 2029 billion barrels Reserves of conventional oil (outside U.S.)* *USGS 2000 # USGS 1995 and MMS 1996, ‡ 180 billion barrels, Oil & Gas Journal 2002

  18. Conventional Oil USGS World Energy Assessment 2000* Reserve Growth in Conventional Fields 612 Undiscovered Conventional Oil 649 Remaining Reserves of Conventional Oil 859 Cumulative Production to Date 539 Billions of Barrels (* exclusive of U.S.)

  19. Conventional Oil USGS World Energy Assessment 2000* Reserve Growth in Conventional Fields 612 Undiscovered Conventional Oil 649 Remaining Reserves of Conventional Oil 859 Cumulative Production to Date 539 Billions of Barrels (* exclusive of U.S.)

  20. Conventional Oil USGS World Energy Assessment 2000* Reserve Growth in Conventional Fields 612 Undiscovered Conventional Oil 649 Remaining Reserves of Conventional Oil 859 Cumulative Production to Date 539 Billions of Barrels (* exclusive of U.S.)

  21. Reserve Growth The amount of oil in most fields is underestimated. • Stratigraphic extension of a field • Geographic extension of a field • Better recovery factors over time • Initial estimates of reserves are often conservative for political, financial, or other reasons.

  22. Magnitude of Reserve GrowthNorth Sea Oil Fields – 1985 to 2000 (15 yrs) Additions to reserves 1985 to 2000: Reserve growth – 12 billion barrels New field discoveries - 2 billion barrels From Klett and Gautier, 2005

  23. Magnitude of Reserve GrowthNorth Sea Oil Fields – 1985 to 2000 (15 yrs) Additions to reserves 1985 to 2000: Reserve growth – 12 billion barrels New field discoveries - 2 billion barrels From Klett and Gautier, 2005

  24. Reserve Growth Magnitude of Reserve GrowthNorth Sea Oil Fields – 1985 to 2000 (15 yrs) Additions to reserves 1985 to 2000: Reserve growth – 12 billion barrels New field discoveries - 2 billion barrels From Klett and Gautier, 2005

  25. World Conventional Oil (Including U.S.) 2029 Remaining recoverable oil* 68% 952 Cumulative Production to end of 2004 32% Billions of Barrels * From USGS 2000, USGS 1995, and MMS 1996

  26. World’s Conventional Oil Endowment < 1 Billion Barrels (BBO) 40 - 80 BBO 1 - 20 BBO 80 - 160 BBO 20 - 40 BBO > 160 BBO Based on USGS 2000 (World) and 1995 (U.S.) assessments

  27. Australia Population Pyramid 2005 Male Female Median age: 36.6

  28. Iraq Population Pyramid 2005 Male Female Median age: 19.4

  29. S. Arabia Iraq Nigeria Oman Angola Yemen Syria Gabon Congo Kuwait Iran Venezuela Libya Mexico Algeria India Indonesia Ecuador Egypt Malaysia Colombia Brunei Vietnam U.A.E. China Qatar Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Argentina Trinidad&T. Romania Cuba Russia Norway Canada U.K. Australia Denmark Remaining Conventional Oil in Top 50 Countries Ranked by Median Age of Population Exclusive of U.S. Billion barrels of oil <22 22-26 27-31 32-36 >36 Resource estimates from USGS 2000.

  30. S. Arabia Iraq Nigeria Oman Angola Yemen Syria Gabon Congo Kuwait Iran Venezuela Libya Mexico Algeria India Indonesia Ecuador Egypt Malaysia Colombia Brunei Vietnam U.A.E. China Qatar Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Argentina Trinidad&T. Romania Cuba Russia Norway Canada U.K. Australia Denmark Remaining Conventional Oil in Top 50 Countries Ranked by Median Age of Population Exclusive of U.S. Billion barrels of oil Russia <22 22-26 27-31 32-36 >36 Resource estimates from USGS 2000.

  31. Remaining Oil in Top 50 Countries Ranked by Median Age of Population Exclusive of U.S. Billion barrels of oil Alberta Oil Sands Russia <22 22-26 27-31 32-36 >36 Oil sand reserves from Oil & Gas Journal. Resource estimates from USGS 2000.

  32. Nuclear Renewables Natural Gas Oil Shale Frontier Basins Oil Sands Coal Billion barrels of oil Alberta Oil Sands Russia <22 22-26 27-31 32-36 >36 Oil sand reserves from Oil & Gas Journal. Resource estimates from USGS 2000.

  33. South America Indian Ocean Australasia Are There Any Frontier Basins Left? Arctic

  34. Mt. Everest Tibet Plateau Ganges Plain Mackenzie Delta Sedimentary prism 5 km 100 km

  35. Gulf of Mexico Cretaceous - Recent 5 km 100 km

  36. U.S. Gulf Coast >100,000 wildcat wells

  37. A Framework for Comparing Deltaic Systems Cratonic Shelf Foreland Basin Rift Polar Passive Margin Temperate Subtropical Active Margin Tropical Greenhouse Epoch Transitional Epoch Icehouse Epoch

  38. A Framework for Comparing Deltaic Systems Cratonic Shelf Foreland Basin Rift Polar Passive Margin Temperate Subtropical Active Margin Tropical Greenhouse Epoch Transitional Epoch Icehouse Epoch

  39. A Framework for Comparing Deltaic Systems Cratonic Shelf Foreland Basin Rift Polar Passive Margin Temperate Subtropical Active Margin Tropical Greenhouse Epoch Transitional Epoch Icehouse Epoch

  40. Basin Evolution Chart /depth

  41. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Basin Evolution Chart Burial – Thermal History Chart Burial depth (m)

  42. Conclusions: • There is a finite amount of oil in the world but considerably more than the pessimists would have us believe. • Much remaining oil and gas remains in basins that are currently producing – including most basins considered to be “mature”. • There are still frontier basins to be explored. Technological advances and political changes allow exploration to become viable in new regions. • Future exploration will require use of increasingly better geological and geophysical studies.

More Related