Excess Casualty Insurance Markets in the Post-Crisis World: A Looming Tort Crisis?

1. Excess Casualty Insurance Markets in the Post-Crisis World:A Looming Tort Crisis? March 9, 2010 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520  Cell: 917.453.1885  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

2. Presentation Outline • Insurance Industry Financial Overview & Outlook • Profitability • Premium Growth • Underwriting Performance • Financial Market (Investment) Overview • Financial Strength • Tort Environment/Casualty Risk Assessment • Profitability • Premium Growth • The Economic Storm: Financial Crisis, Recession & Recovery • Exposure Overview & Outlook • Public Policy Initiatives Affecting Casualty Insurance Markets • Financial Service Regulation/Systemic Risk • Terrorism Risk Insurance Program in Jeopardy Q&A eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

3. I.P/C (Re)Insurance Financial Performance Profitability, Premiums, Investment Performance, Capacity & Financial Strength 3

4. Profitability A Profit Recovery is Underway, But Is it Enough and Can it Endure? 4

5. P/C Net Income After Taxes1991–2009P ($ Millions) P-C Industry profits for full-year 2009 were up sharply from 2008, but are still well below pre-crisis levels • 2005 ROE*= 9.4% • 2006 ROE = 12.2% • 2007 ROE = 10.9% • 2008 ROE = 0.3% • 2009:Q3 ROAS1 = 4.5% * ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 4.5% ROAS for 2008 and 5.9% for the first 9 months of 2009. 2009:Q3 net income was $20.5 billion excluding M&FG. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

6. ROE: P/C vs. AllIndustries1987–2009:Q3* (Percent) P/C Profitability isCyclical and Volatile Katrina, Rita, Wilma Sept. 11 Hugo Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years 4 Hurricanes Andrew Financial Crisis* Northridge * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 and 2009 through Q3. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

7. ROE vs. Equity Cost of Capital:US P/C Insurance:1991-2009:Q3* (Percent) The P/C Insurance Industry Fell WellShort of Its Cost of Capital in 2008/09 -1.7 pts -4.6 pts +2.3 pts -7.1 pts -9.0 pts -13.2 pts The Cost of Capital is the Rate of Return Insurers Need to Attract and Retain Capital to the Business US P/C Insurers Missed Their Cost of Capital by an Average 6.7 Points from 1991 to 2002, but On Target or Better 2003-07, but Fell Well Short in 2008/09 * Excludes mortgage and financial guarantee insurers Source: The Geneva Association, Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

8. A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: 90-95 is Where It’s At Now Combined ratio of about 100 generated a 6% ROE in 2009, 10% in 2005 and16% in 1979 Combined Ratio / ROE Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs * 2009 figure is return on average statutory surplus. 2008 and 2009 figures exclude mortgage and financial guarantee insurers Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data

9. Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line* Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline *Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums **US domestic reinsurance only. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

10. P/C Reserve Development, 1992–2011E Reserve Releases Will Expected to Taper Off in 2010 and Drop Significantly in 2011 Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclay’s Capital; A.M. Best. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

11. Net Prior Year Reserve Development by Line, 2008 Reserve release have contributed to the bottom line for several years, but pace will eventually slow Sources A.M. Best, ISO, Barclay’s Capital Research. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

12. Calendar Year vs. Accident Year P/C Combined Ratio: 1992–2010E1 Accident Year Results Show a More Significant Deterioration in Underwriting Performance. Calendar Year Results Are Helped by Reserve Releases Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclay’s Capital; A.M. Best. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

13. Number of Years with Underwriting Profits by Decade, 1920s–2000s Number of Years with Underwriting Profits Underwriting Profits Were Common Before the 1980s (40 of the 60 Years Before 1980 Had Combined Ratios Below 100) – But Then They Vanished. Not a Single Underwriting Profit Was Recorded in the 25 Years from 1979 Through 2003 * 2000 through 2009. 2009 combined ratio was 100.7 through Q3. Note: Data for 1920–1934 based on stock companies only. Sources: Insurance Information Institute research from A.M. Best Data. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

14. Performance by Segment:Commercial/Personal Lines & Reinsurance 17

15. Calendar Year Combined Ratios by Segment: 2008-2010P Commercial lines and reinsurance combined ratios are expected to deteriorate in 2010 while personal lines is expected to improve Overall deterioration in 2010 underwriting performance is due to expected return to normal catastrophe activity along with deteriorating underwriting performance related to the prolonged commercial soft market Sources: A.M. Best (historical and estimates/projected for 2009 and 2010); Insurance Information Institute. 18 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

16. Number of Top 10 Jury Awards, 1995 - 2007 TX, NY and CA lead the U.S. in jumbo-size jury awards Source: LawyersWeekly USA,, January 22, 2008. *All against Iran for terrorist activity

17. After-Tax Return on Surplus (ROE) by Segment: 2008-2010P Personal lines ROEs should improve in 2010 and remain flat in commercial lines and reinsurance Profitability will rise or stabilize across most p/c lines, barring a financial crisis relapse or major catastrophic losses Sources: A.M. Best (historical and estimates/projected for 2009 and 2010); Insurance Information Institute. 21 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

18. Net Written Premium Growth by Segment: 2008-2010P Personal lines will return to growth in 2010 while commercial lines and reinsurance are expected to continue to shrink Rate and exposure are more favorable in personal lines, whereas a prolonged soft market and sluggish recovery from the recession weigh on commercial lines. Low catastrophe losses and ample capacity are holding down reinsurance prices while higher insurer retentions impact premiums Sources: A.M. Best (historical and estimates/projected for 2009 and 2010); Insurance Information Institute. 23 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

19. Change in Net Investment Income by Segment: 2008-2010P* Net investment income is expected to begin to recover in all segments in 2010 Investment income consists primarily of interest on bonds and stock dividends. Both were hit hard during the financial crisis as the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and corporations cut dividends. A recovery in investment asset values beginning in Q2 2009—which reduced realized capital losses—has helped offset some of the decrease in investment income. Sources: A.M. Best (historical and estimates/projected for 2009 and 2010); Insurance Information Institute. 24 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

20. Investment Yield by Segment: 2008-2010P* Investment yields are shrinking across all segments—down 10 to 100 bases points since 2008 The Fed slashed interest rates in 2008 and has kept them low since, eroding the yield on all types of bonds, especially US Treasury securities. Yields will not recover until the Fed begins monetary policy tightening. Sources: A.M. Best (historical and estimates/projected for 2009 and 2010); Insurance Information Institute. 25 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

21. Commercial Multi-Peril Combined Ratio: 1995–2010P Commercial Multi-Peril is Expected to Continue to Perform Reasonably Well *2009E and 2010P figures are for the combined liability and non-liability components. Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

22. P/C Premium Growth Primarily Driven by the Industry’s Underwriting Cycle, Not the Economy 30

23. Strength of Recent HardMarkets by NWP Growth (Percent) 1975-78 1984-87 2000-03 Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33 During the Great Depression. Expected decline of 1.6% in 2010. Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

24. Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004–4Q:2009) (Percent) Magnitude of Price Declines Shrank During Crisis, Reflecting Shrinking Capital, Reduced Investment Gains, Deteriorating Underwriting Performance, Higher Cat Losses and Costlier Reinsurance Market Remains Soft as Capital Restored and Underwriting Losses Fall KRW Effect Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

25. Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2009:Q4 Percentage Change (%) Most Major Commercial Lines Renewed Down in Q4:2009 by Roughly the Same Margin as a Year Earlier Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

26. Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Account Size: 1999:Q4 to 2009:Q4 Percentage Change (%) Peak = 2004:Q4 +28.5% Market has Been Soft for 6 years and Remains Soft as Capital is Restored and Underwriting Losses Fall Trough = 2004:Q4 -13.6% KRW Effect Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

27. Cumulative Qtrly. Commercial Rate Changes, by Account Size: 1999:Q4 to 2009:Q4 1999:Q4 = 100 Pricing today is where is was in Q2:2001 (pre-9/11) KRW Effect Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

28. Investment Performance Investments Drove Profit Decline in 2008 and Improvement in 2009 38

29. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2009P1 ($ Billions) Investment Gains Fell by 51% In 2008 Due to Lower Yields,Poor Equity Market Conditions. In 2009, the Return of Realized Capital Losses Helped Offset Lower Investment Income 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

30. Treasury Yield Curves: Pre-Crisis (July 2007) vs. Dec. 2009 Treasury yield curve is near its most depressed level in at least 45 years. Investment income is falling as a result Stock Dividend Cuts Will Further Pressure Investment Income Sources: Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve Bank; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

31. Capital/PolicyholderSurplus (US) Shrinkage, but Not Enoughto Trigger Hard Market 44

32. Declines Since 2007:Q3 Peak 08:Q2: -$16.6B (-3.2%) 08:Q3: -$43.3B (-8.3%) 08:Q4: -$66.2B (-12.9%) 09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%) 09:Q3: -$31.8B (-5.9%) 09:Q4: -$2.5B (-0.5%) Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2009:Q4P Capacity as of 12/31/09 was just 0.5% below the 2007 peak and will likely set a new record in 2010 Capacity Peaked at $521.8 as of 9/30/07 ($ Billions) Source: ISO, AM Best. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

33. Global Reinsurance Capacity Shrankin 2008, Mostly Due to Investments Global Reinsurance Capacity Source of Decline RealizedCapitalLosses Change inUnrealizedCapital Losses Hurricanes Global Reinsurance CapacityFell by an Estimated 17% in 2008 Source: AonBenfield Reinsurance Market Outlook 2009; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

34. Ratio of Insured Loss to Surplus for Largest Capital Events Since 1989* The Financial Crisis at its Peak Ranks as the Largest “Capital Event” Overthe Past 20+ Years (Percent) * Ratio is for end-of-quarter surplus immediately prior to event. Date shown is end of quarter prior to event ** Date of maximum capital erosion; As of 9/30/09 (latest available) ratio = 5.9% Source: PCS; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

35. Historically, Hard Markets FollowWhen Surplus “Growth” is Negative* Surplus growth is now positive but premiums continue to fall, a departure from the historical pattern (Percent) Sharp Decline in Capacity is a Necessary butNot Sufficient Condition for a True Hard Market * 2009 NWP and Surplus figures are % changes as of Q4:09P vs Q4:08 Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

36. Financial Strength & Ratings Industry Has Weathered the Storms Well 51

37. P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2009p 5 of the 11 are Florida companies (1 of these 5 is a title insurer) The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C Insurance Cycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

38. P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2009p 2009 estimated impairment rate rose to 0.36% up from a near record low of 0.23% in 2008 and the 0.17% record low in 2007; Rate is still less than one-half the 0.79% average since 1969 Impairment Rates Are Highly Correlated With Underwriting Performance and Reached Record Lows in 2007/08 *Combined ratio of 101.7 is through Q3:09; 0.36% 2009 impairment rate is III estimate based on preliminary A.M. Best data. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

39. Summary of A.M. Best’s P/C Insurer Ratings Actions in 2009 Despite financial market turmoil and a soft market in 2009, 76% of ratings actions by A.M. Best were affirmations; just 2.9% were downgrades and 3.2% were upgrades Other – 216 Affirm – 1,375 Under Review – 69 Initial – 44 Upgraded – 59 Downgraded – 53 P/C Insurance is by Design a Resilient Business. The Dual Threat of Financial Disasters and Catastrophic Losses Are Anticipated in the Industry’s Risk Management Strategy .Source: A.M. Best. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

40. Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2008 Deficient Loss Reserves and Inadequate Pricing Are the Leading Cause of Insurer Impairments, Underscoring the Importance of Discipline. Investment Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role Reinsurance Failure Sig. Change in Business Misc. Investment Problems Deficient Loss Reserves/In-adequate Pricing Affiliate Impairment Catastrophe Losses Alleged Fraud Rapid Growth Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2008 Impairment Review, Special Report, Apr. 6, 2008 eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

41. II. Tort Environment Overview Is the Pendulum Swinging Against Casualty Risks and their Insurers? 57

42. Over the Last Three Decades, Total Tort Costs* as a % of GDP Appear Somewhat Cyclical ($ Billions) 2009–2010 Growth in Tort Costs as % of GDP is Due in Part to Shrinking GDP * Excludes the tobacco settlement, medical malpractice Sources: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2009 Update on US Tort Cost Trends, Appendix 1A; I.I.I. calculations/estimates for 2009 and 2010 and 2011 eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

43. Cost of US Tort System ($ Billions) Tort costs consumed 1.79% of GDP in 2008, down from 2.24% in 2003 Per capita “tort tax” was $? in 2009, up from $838 in 2008 and $636 in 2000 Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, 2009 Update on US Tort Cost Trends.

44. Watch List • Rio Grande Valley & Gulf Coast, TX • Madison County, IL • Baltimore, MD • St Louis (the city of), St Louis and Jackson Counties, MO Dishonorable Mention • MA Supreme Judicial Court • MO Supreme Court The Nation’s Judicial Hellholes (2008/2009) Nevada Clark County (Las Vegas) Illinois Cook County West Virginia New Jersey Atlantic County (Atlantic City) California Los Angeles County Alabama Macon and Montgomery Counties South Florida Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

45. Watch List • California • Alabama • Madison County, IL • Jefferson County, MS • Texas Gulf Coast • Rio Grande Valley, TX Dishonorable Mention • AR Supreme Court • MN Supreme Court • ND Supreme Court • PA Governor • MA Supreme Judicial Court • Sacramento County The Nation’s Judicial Hellholes: 2010 Illinois Cook County West Virginia New York City New Jersey Atlantic County (Atlantic City) New Mexico Appellate Courts South Florida Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

46. Average Jury Awards 1998 - 2007 The average jury award more than doubled from 1998 to 2007 Source: Jury Verdict Research; Insurance Information Institute.

47. Average Jury Awards 1998 vs. 2002 and 2007 *Award trends in wrongful deaths of adult males. Source: Jury Verdict Research; Insurance Information Institute.

48. Sum of Top 10 Jury Awards 2004-2008 Total of Top 10 awards has more than doubled in the last three years. Source: Insurance Information Institute from Lawyers USA, January 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.

49. 2009 Top Ten Verdicts Source: Lawyers USA, January 15, 2010.

50. Trends in Million Dollar Verdicts* The frequency of multi-million dollar awards is increasing across virtually all types of defendants. Across all liability types, million dollar-plus awards rose from 13% of all awards from 2001-2003 to 17% in 2006-2007. *Verdicts of $1 million or more. Source: Jury Verdict Research; Insurance Information Institute.