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Assessing Undergraduate Curriculum Through Student Exit Vectors. Christopher M. Keane Leila Gonzales Cynthia Martinez 15 December 2008. The World has Changed. Historical counter-cycle of geoscience is not in effect Points people miss ~50% of Chinese manufacturing has gone offline in 2008
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Assessing Undergraduate Curriculum Through Student Exit Vectors Christopher M. Keane Leila Gonzales Cynthia Martinez 15 December 2008
The World has Changed • Historical counter-cycle of geoscience is not in effect • Points people miss • ~50% of Chinese manufacturing has gone offline in 2008 • Russian economic proxies show contraction of nearly 80% • Indian outsourcing growth ended 2 years ago • Our boom was built on credit and developing nation growth • This time it wasn’t commodity inflation….
But now coupled to Construction? • Largest environmental companies are construction-related • Bechtel, URS, etc. • Environmental activity is a COST-CENTER of construction • No credit = no building = no jobs • Obama stimulus likely a short-term boost
Government 18% Petroleum 43% Academia 17% Exec. Management Mining 1% 12% Environmental 8% Other Services 1% Neither is totally true • Hiring has slowed substantially across sectors • Jobs will rise with renewed economic growth • Environmental jobs will rise with renewed growth • Gov. jobs will return with tax revenue • Academia is likely to continue to contract
Problem of Exit Info • Only about 50% of departments conduct exit surveys of bachelor recipients • Little department tracking of employment and out-year status • Complexity of workforce data vs. precision of degrees
Placement = Success? • Is a job placement really success? • Environmental Industry example • Environmental Science new hire • Weak math, little field work • Ill-equipped to move past entry level • 3-Year target “career” • Geology new hire • Better math, real field work • Flexible assignments
Near Term Trends • The best grads with the best fundamentals will be hired • Likely hiring in environmental as a result of stimulus • But will the rat push through the snake? • System is warped – metrics will be a challenge beyond fundamentals
Long-Term Trends • Strong core geoscience skills will be in demand • Energy • Water • Ability to integrate interdisciplinary collaboration will prosper • Will such skills be the success definition?
Fallacy of a Fad? • Push towards “Environmental” across the board • What really need to do is push towards “Interdisciplinary”
Solid Earth Environmental Physical Science Departmental “Focus”U.S. BS-Degree Granting 700 600 500 400 Departments 300 200 100 0 1980 1990 2000 Year
Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics1950s vs 1980s Environmental/Hydro Economic Geology 1950-59 Geochemistry 1980-89 Geophysics Igneous/Metamorphic Stratigraphy/Paleo Sedimentary Geology Structure/Tectonics Other 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Number of Theses and Dissertations AGI 1991
Skill Portfolio Strategy • Academia functions in silos • Rest of the arena functions on problems • Problems are solved with a cohort with a set of skills • Environmental example • Engineering, biology, chemistry, hydrology, soils, geology, accounting, legal
Where’s the next “Plastics” • Ye who fits into the most portfolios • One likely hot area: fluid dynamics • Waste migration • Water resources • Geothermal • Nuclear • Reservoir Characterization • Carbon Sequestration • Lots, and lots outside of core geo careers
Australian Trends • Substantial drop in K-12 Earth Science exposure • Commensurate drop in new undergrads • Hot mining industry recruiting students BEFORE getting their bachelors • No grad students -> no new faculty • No new faculty == death of discipline
South African Trends • Massive brain-drain post-apartheid • High sensitivity to job availability • Ease of migration • Students receive excellent bachelors, but exit country and do not return
Whither the future? • Focus on how your students fit in the skills portfolio of the economy • The system is currently warped • Increases in job sensitivity may destabilize the pipeline • Fundamentals in math, geology, and field will prevail • Need longitudinal surveys!