Spotting Fashions, Fads, and Gems in Emerging Technologies

1. Ch 9: Fast-Forward Spotting Fashions, Fads, and Gems in Emerging Technologies AJ Raven

2. Agenda Why firms stumble with ETs Separating hyperbole from substance Three emerging waves of technology The Unicorn connection

3. Jargon Decoder Three waves of emerging technologies… • Transcending: Transcend boundary between real and digital world • Overlaying: Overlay a digital thread on capital assets and humans • Scale transforming: Transform familiar into gigantic or tiny versions • Signal-to-noise ratio: substance-to-hype ratio • Artificial intelligence: allows computers to mimic human reasoning • Timing misjudgment: premature use of an ET before critical complements arrive • The IT unicorn: The erroneous belief that corporate IT cannot simultaneously be cheap and strategic

4. Circa 2040… • How’ll your industry look like in 10 or 20 years? • How can you ridethe trifecta instead of being swept away? • Reimagine bread-and-butter business if IT too fast to domesticate? • IT changes are self-cloaking – constant; entirely missable • Fable of the frog in the boiling pot • Non-IT managers can be • Eyes and ears to sense-make emerging technologies • Battle rivals unburdened by your industry’s legacy costs and ingrained assumptions • In a village of blind men…the one-eyed is… • 80% firms blind to weak signs of threats/ opportunities • Struggle with what to watch and what to ignore • Hyperbole versus substance using three waves

5. Fear the Newbie, not your Archrivals • Every big disruption since 1500 AD industry outsiders • Don’t share your assumptions or constraints • #1 threat: a newbie who does it differently • Industry outsiders: Music (Apple), publishing (Amazon), and entertainment (Netflix) • Next: auto, healthcare, finance, and education • Wrong bets and missed bets can both be fatal

6. Why Firms Stumble with New Technologies • Cannot separate signal from noise • Overinvest or underinvest in ETs • Forget that solely their application creates value • Their timing is off

7. Reason #1: Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio • Substance: hyberbole ratio low in early stages • Noise = assertions, beliefs, and hype • Bandwagon behavior epitomizes poor discipline in corporate IT investing Hype cycle Inflated expectations Actual potential Business value Productive use in business Disillusionment Time

8. Classification Errors The three lenses are your crystal ball • Will it tweak the digitization cube? Open opportunity spaces? • Will it alter the balance of power? Obviate assets or assumptions? • Will it alter business models or merely raise the floor? • Adoption is slow (phones: 50 years, Internet: 40; and digital music: 20) 1 4 Squandered opportunity Ignore Noise What it is classified as Mirage Invest Signal 2 3 Needle in haystack Signal Noise Hype without substance What it actually is = Errors of judgment

9. Reason #2: Application Begets Value “Things are only impossible until they are not” - Star Trek’s Picard • ETs can erase the boundary between science fiction and reality • New technologies often are solutions searching for problems • Science fiction as a treasure trove to mine not-yet-practical ideas • New business models must first be imagined…by non-IT managers • Curators of new business technologies • To connect the dots, you must know what the dots are What business wants What IT thinks it needs Emerging technologies expand this part What is feasible

10. SciFi Inspired Reality

11. SciFi Inspired Reality in Pictures 1968 1966 1931 1966

12. Reason #3: Timing Misjudgments • Too early if before complementary technologies arrive • Apple Pay and Google Wallet • Few stores had readers/ infrastructure to accept them • Misjudged competition (ubiquitous credit card readers) • Similarly • Palm versus iPhone before cellular data networks were ubiquitous • Creative versus iPod before digital music content was widely available • Lesson: Cannot see an ET in isolation from its complements

13. Timing Misjudgments Sold: 1 billion units 2007 2002 Sold: 400 million units 1998 2001

14. Three Coming Waves    Transcend physical-digital Overlay physical on digital Transform scale • Three patterns beneath the glut of emerging technologies • Most impact on IT laggards—government, healthcare, and education • 1/3rd of global GDP • Productivity bump will create new losers and winners Augmented reality 3D printing Robotics Gigantic Tiny Internet-of-things Artificial intelligence

15. Wave #1: Transcending Physical-Digital Boundary Alter where physical world ends and the digital world begins Robotics 3D printing Internet Atoms Bits 3D Printing Unfinished cycle • Automating repetitive work • Service, accounting, driving • 6x productivity bump • Substitutes human labor • Amazon robots, Siri, dark factories • Dreamliner: 7 mins/15 hour flight • Zero transportation costs • Zeroes inventory costs • End of mass production? • Erosion of geography Medical implants Jet engine parts

16. Wave #2: Overlaying Digital on the Physical Digital thread overlaid on physical assets and humans wrings productivity Morphing old-school industries into information businesses Internet-of-things Augmented Reality Artificial Intelligence people Cheap sensors in ordinary objects • Adds context, historically unavailable • Eliminates guessworkoperations optimization • Entirely new ways for firms to interact with customers Examples • GE jet engine60 iphones/ hr data • FedExpackage trackers • Trains: 1 Mph bumpsaves $250m/ year • Precision farming to feed 10 billion humans Potential: costs and asset productivity ~ $10 trillion by 2025

17. Wave #2: Overlaying Digital… b. Augmented reality: Superimposes information on physical objects to aid human decisions Examples: • Boeing aircraft assemblers use VR glasses to drill • Warby Parker virtual try-ons for glasses • Selfies to reduce online clothing returns • Translators for street signs in Japanese c. Artificial intelligence: Allows computers to mimic human reasoning • Discovers rules beyond human ability by digesting examples • (programming requires encoding rules) • Big catalyst for 1950s idea: Big data + powerful processors Examples: • Facebook face tagging or cancer cells in medical images • Conversational computers connect billions illiterate • Vulnerable jobs: White-collar describable in steps (70% of today’s jobs) • e.g., X-ray technicians, paralegals, customer service • Data-intensive jobs in insurance, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare • New-new skills needed: Things that machines cannot do

18. Wave #3: Transforming Scale Creating gigantic or a tiny versions of the familiar activities • Gigantic: Assemblages of humans or machines • e.g., ecosystems such as iOS (200,000 firms + billion users) (Borg?) • e.g., meta-machines (40+ cars coordinated using dedicated 802.11p) • Others: venture funding (e.g., Kickstarter), banking (Kiva), artisan markets (Etsy), cartography (Open Street Map), product development (Quirky), R&D (Innocentive), genetics (Merck Gene Index), and even social innovation (Open IDEO) • Tiny: Blockchain, static-powered microscopic IoT • Opportunity • Using triefecta to reimagine delivering offerings using a global network • Untapped potential of machines’ growing ability to talk to each other

19. Summary • Firms stumble with ETs because they • Misjudge hyperbole for substance (S/N ratio) • Forget that business application alone creates value • Their timing is off • Signal-to-noise ratio clouds judgment use the three lenses • Three waves beneath the glut describe ETs’ business implications • Transcend physical-digital: Wipe physical constraints • Overlay a digital coat on physical assets and humans, squeezing productivity • Transform scale to gigantic or tiny • The unicorn: Cheap yet strategic corporate IT becomes real when non-IT managers contribute to IT strategy

20. Book Recap • Without non-IT managers’ business acumen  Corporate IT strategically limp + costly • IT = a possibility factory • In short supply: engaged non-IT managers to envision possibilities • Syncing IT propels in Red Queen competition • Getting your money’s worth requires… • Grasping the trifecta • Obsessing over ITstrategy link • Governing and sourcing IT well • Holding IT accountable for business results • Investing in the strategically-right places, and less elsewhere

21. Cheap yet strategic IT is a unicorn only until non-IT managers meet IT strategy

22. “Well, now that we have seen each other,” said the unicorn, “if you'll believe in me, I'll believe in you.”  Lewis Carroll Through the Looking-Glass.

23. Color version