Kriegsformen und Kriegsbilder im 21. Jahrhundert

1. Kriegsformen und Kriegsbilderim 21. Jahrhundert Eine Strukturskizze Prof. Dr.Dr.h.c.mult. R. Meyers WWU Münster

2. This file can be downloaded from my website • http://reinhardmeyers.uni-muenster.de • There you can also find further material to accompany our seminars on International Theory, International Politics, and Peace Research • Lost in the maze ??? Send email to meyersr@uni-muenster.de not later than July 31, 2012 !!

3. Cyber warfare

4. Internetschwerpunkte

6. Elemente einer historischen Formenlehre von Krieg und Frieden I

7. Elemente einer historischen Formenlehre von Krieg und Frieden II

8. Elemente einer historischen Formenlehre von Krieg und Frieden III

9. Elemente einer historischen Formenlehre von Krieg und Frieden IV

10. Elemente einer historischen Formenlehre von Krieg und Frieden V • Epoche: nach dem Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts – oder: postnukleares Zeitalter • Kriegsform: Neue Kriege • Charakteristik: Entstaatlichung des Krieges, Privatisierung der innergesellschaftlichen wie zwischengesellschaftlichen Gewaltanwendung, Streben nach sozialer Kontrolle der Bevölkerung • Politische Organisation: Vermischung staatlicher und substaatlicher, öffentlicher und privater Formen von Herrschaft und Machtausübung (Warlords, Mafiagang-Territorien, ethnische Mini-Republiken etc.) • Ökonomische Struktur: Bürgerkriegs- und Mafiaökonomien vermitteln zwischen lokaler/regionaler Ausbeutung von Ressourcen und prädatorischer Aneignung nicht selbst geschaffener (Mehr-) Werte und der Mobilisierung von Fluchtkapital oder (gewaschenem) Schwarzgeld und der Realisierung von Profiten im globalen Masstab • Friedensidee: Noch unbestimmte Entwicklung zwischen den Polen des Post Conflict Peace Building gestützt auf Zivilgesellschaft, Third Track Diplomacy, NGOs etc. und Global Governance andererseits

11. Kriegsentwicklung: Betrachtung nach Generationen • 4GW-Betrachtungsansatz • warfare has evolved through four generations: • 1) the use of massed manpower, • 2) firepower, • 3) maneuver, and now • 4) an evolved form of insurgency that employs all available networks—political, economic, social, military—to convince an opponent’s decisionmakers that their stra-tegic goals are either unachievable or too costly.

12. The first generation of modern warfare reflects tactics of the smoothbore musket, the tactics of line and column. Tightly ordered soldiers with top-down discipline. Close-order fighting & slow advance • The year of the Peace of Westphalia, 1648, is normally chosen as the beginning of this period. • It also marked the beginning of the ascendancy of nation-states in European affairs, replacing feudal and communal organizations as war-making entities.

13. Second generation warfare emerged in the middle of the 19th century. The technologies of steam, metallurgy, and mass production drove the birth of this stage of war. [industrialization of warfare] • It was warfare based on fire and movement at the tactical level. Fire- particularly that of artillery-became dominant on the battlefield. While linear formations still constrained tactics, the development and institutionalization of the concept of operational art gave depth to the battlefield. • This concept accommodated the deep penetrations, combinations, and "cauldron battles" of the Austro-Prussian and Franco-Prussian wars, and the two great European wars of the 20th century. • But despite the attraction of movement and the concept of penetration, attrition-based onfire-remained the principal characteristic of the battlefield.

14. The third generation was born of necessity; the Germans invented it in an attempt to restore operational freedom to the static western front in 1918. Later known as the blitzkrieg, the third generation of warfare emphasized qualitative maneuver over quantitative fire. It sought to achieve the annihilation of the enemy by short-circuiting his decisionmaking, inducing paralysis. Tactics of infiltration to bypass and collapse the enemy combat forces rather than seeking to cloe with and destroy them A warfare of speed and initiative

15. Fourth generationists argue that the "holy trinity" of Western war-making as the interaction of the state, the people, and the army is ending. • Nation-states are stars losing their warmth, and with it primacy as the entities that control the use of war. • In their place, a broad variety of nongovernmental entities are fighting wars for their own purposes. Tribal, racial, and even familial organizations now dispense violence once reserved for nation-states. • Sovereignty, expressed geographically, is no longer a useful index of war-making. • The fourth-generation world is a return to a pre-modern (i.e. pre-I648) politico-military environment.

16. The first three generations of warfare were each born primarily of the congruence of technological advancement and battlefield application, and secondarily of political necessity. • The fourth generation reverses this relationship. Its adherents assert that this stage is born principally of political utility; technology may become virtually irrelevant. • This analysis opines that military forces effective in the second and third generations will be largely useless in the fourth. Rhetorical examples which seem persuasive, are drawn from current hot spots. How does an MIAI tank contribute to operations against the Medellin cartel? How do F-14s booming overhead feed starving Somalis? • For the fourth generationists, the picture fades to black in the long run. Eventually, the decay of the nation-state erodes the technological structure that supports the high-tech weaponry we use today, and the F-14s cease to fly.

17. Asymmetrie als vorherrschende Kriegsform ?? • Integrale Kriegführung – Einwirkung auf die Bevölkerung • Irreguläre Strukturen, entgrenzte Mittel • Auslagerung/Outsorcing des Krieges (PMCs, Paramilitärs) • Aufstandsbekämpfung im Besatzungskrieg • Rückkehr der dezentralisierten Kriegführung • Desorganisation/ Delegitimierung des Staats in dem asymmetrischer Krieg stattfindet

18. Literaturtip • William S. Lind: Understanding Fourth Generation War, Military Review Sept.-Oct.2004, pp 12 – 16 • Antulio J. Echevarria II: Fourth-Generation War and other Myths. Strategic Studies Institute – unter www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/.../4gw-myths.pd. • Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr: Elegant Irrelevance: Fourth Generation Warfare. Parameters, Herbst 1993, pp 51 – 60 • Raul Zelik: Aufstandsbekämpfung und Besatzungskrieg. Die Entwicklung asymmetrischer Kriegführung durch den Westen, Peripherie 116, 29. Jg. 2009, pp 425 - 447

19. Literaturtip 2 • Colin S. Gray: Irregular Warfare. One Nature, Many Characters. Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2007, pp 35 – 57 • Steven Metz: New Challenges and Old Concepts: Understanding 21st Century Insurgency. Parameters, Winter 2007/08, pp 20 - 32

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