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By: Zoe Fouka – 3rd General Lyceum of Karditsa

Laplace. By: Zoe Fouka – 3rd General Lyceum of Karditsa Antónıo Nozes - Escola Secundárıa com 3 Cıclo D. Manuel I.

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By: Zoe Fouka – 3rd General Lyceum of Karditsa

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  1. Laplace By: ZoeFouka – 3rd General Lyceum of Karditsa AntónıoNozes - EscolaSecundárıa com 3 Cıclo D. Manuel I

  2. Pierre Simon Laplace (1749 – 1827) was born at Beaumont-en-Auge in Normandy. He was a French mathematician, philosopher and astronomer. Because of his great mathematical potential, Laplace went to Paris at the age of 19, where he started his career. There, he began submitting mathematical papers, in order to get into the Science Academy in Paris. Some of his papers were about the theory of probability and statistics.

  3. Thetheory of probability According to Laplace, in probability theory we give theprobabilities of some simple events and then, we try todetermine the probabilities of compound events.Laplace called the probabilities of the simple events, possibilities.

  4. Example – The launch of a coin We can try to throwa coin. Thepossibleresults are: How can we know if we will get face orcrown? Face Crown

  5. Gettingface or crown depends on the "chance" of "luck" or "unluck" ... Thebehaviourbefore throwingthecoincan not determine which oneof the resultswill come out. We are in the presence of a "random phenomenon ",wich in probabilitiesis called a"randomexperiment".

  6. WeelofFortune Rules: Theplayer ( Mr. Thomas) winsthecontestif he getsone of thetworedparts. What is the probability of Mr. Thomas to win thecontest?

  7. There are 8 sectors on the wheel and only two are red.So, there are eight possible cases. There are two "favorable cases" markedwith red, so we can say that the chance of 'getting red' is 2 to 8, this is, 2 / 8. Wecansaythat: P(“getting red”)= the probability of an event comes in the form of fraction and it should be simplified whenever is possible. So, the probability of Mr. Thomaswinning is 1/4

  8. TheRule of Succession One well-known formula is the rule of succession, whichwasintroduced by Laplace in order to solve the sunrise problem: "What is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow? Suppose that we conduct an experiment and we know that itsresult will be a "success" or a "failure". If we repeat thisexperiment over and over again, forntimes and get ssuccesses,then what is the probability that the next repetition will be asuccess again? P(next outcome is a success) = s + 1/ n + 2 Laplace calculated the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow, giventhat it has never failed to in the past. (d is thenumber of times the sun has risen in the past) P(sun will rise tomorrow) = d+1/ d+2

  9. TheEnd

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