Complexity in Public Policy: Metaphors and Methods

1. Complexity in Public Policy: Metaphors and Methods Philip Haynes

2. What do we mean by policy? • Government action • Linking of decisions • Intervention – political power

3. What do we mean by policy? • Implementation – management, professionalism… • Multidisciplinary

4. Policy Process • Policy as a rational process

5. Many perspectives on policy

6. Making sense of it all? • Patterns • Time and Space

7. Patterns • Action over time - policy trends • Spatial levels - global, national, local, organisation, team…

8. Policy systems External Factors National Government Local Government Policy organisations External Factors

9. Complexity Theory • Complex dynamic systems are constructed by the interaction of instability and stability. • Includes chaos theory, but goes beyond it Stability Edge of Chaos Instability

10. Complex or complicated?

11. Some core metaphors • Instability (chaos) • Nested systems • Attractors (order in disorder) • Interaction (not cause and effect) • Self organisation (order from within)

12. Chaos and instability

14. Instability and chaos in policy

15. Types of change

16. Types of change

17. Policy and Time • Evolution of macro policy • Which path does policy action take? • Path dependency • Punctuated equilibrium • Complex stability-instability

18. Some core metaphors • Instability (chaos) • Nested systems (fractals)

19. Nested systems Central Government Sub National Government Local Government Actor, 1., 2, 3, etc Organisation A Organisation B

20. Some core metaphors • Instability (chaos) • Nested systems (fractals) • Attractors (order in the disorder)

21. Attractor UK inflation (t-1) 1987-2004

22. Attractor UK inflation 1987-1990

23. Attractor UK inflation 1990--1997

24. Attractor UK inflation 1997-2005

25. Attractor UK inflation 1987-2005

26. Attractors - qualitative • Kontoupolous – ‘competing logics in public policy’ Managerialism Marketisation Professionalism Consumerism User involvement Citizenship Bureaucratic rules

27. Some core metaphors • Instability (chaos) • Nested systems (fractals) • Attractors (order in the disorder) • Interaction (rather than cause and effect) A Feedback B

28. System Interaction

29. Some core metaphors • Instability (chaos) • Nested systems (fractals) • Attractors (order in the disorder) • Interaction (rather than cause and effect) • Self organisation (Order from within)

30. Self organisation

31. Methods • How we can make sense of such complexity?

32. ‘We maybe able to able to learn a lot about the kind of dynamics involved in the functioning of such systems…Complexity theory underscores the importance of contingent factors… No general model can capture these singularities.’ Cilliers, 2001, p.145

33. Qualitative Comparative MethodCharles Ragin • Use of quantitative thresholds to make qualitative judgements • Better consideration of cases • Multiple ‘complex’ paths to outcome

34. Single quantitative model

35. As complex patterns QCA – truth tables • H W M S CH A AR Out id • 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 C AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND • 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 GERMANY • 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 GB • 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 US • 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 AUSTRIA • 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 HUNG • 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 NOR,CAN • 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 POLAND • 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 JAPAN • 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 SPAIN

36. Logical Statements Outcome 1 = higher expenditure on LTC policy h * (M*s*ch) + (m*S*a) N= (8) (5) + (3)

37. Country statements • h * m * S * ch * a * ar • (GB and USA)

38. Patterns – workflow diagrams Clearing Student Induction Publicity Admissions Learningand Teaching delivery Open days Progression Student stress System Stress (Info. Systems) Timetabling Subject strength Staff deployment Staff expertise Research grants Staff turn over Assessment Research publications Personal tutoring Staff stress Student services Higher Degree Recruitment Student retention Examination Boards Awards and Graduation

39. Indicator Dashboard 19.78 SSRs Student Retention Publications cited Grants awarded Student Targets Budget

40. Implications for practice ‘Decision makers should be content with setting minimum specifications, establishing boundaries and letting the system settle into a condition that satisfies the constraints placed on it.’ (Kernick 2004, p137)’

41. Airport paperback: five point summary • Don’t micro manage • Do both synthesis and analysis (the big picture is an important as the detail) • Celebrate positive feedback systems • Some places are trapped in negative feedback, consider intervening on a large scale. • Listen to local context and ‘stories’