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County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2008 to 2018

County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2008 to 2018. County Projections Procedures. Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties. Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.

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County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2008 to 2018

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  1. County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2008 to 2018

  2. County ProjectionsProcedures • Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties. • Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force. • Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern. • Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.

  3. Population Projectionsfor New JerseyOverview Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2018 2008-2018 2000-2008 1990-2000 2008-2018 2000-2008 1990-2000 • New Jersey’s 2008-2018 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

  4. County Population: 2008 and 2018 • Population is projected to increase in all counties except Cape May, with various growth rate, from 2008 to 2018.

  5. Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region

  6. Population Growth by Region • The Coastal and Central regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2008 to 2018. • The rate of population growth in the Northern region is projected to be slower than other regions between 2008 and 2018.

  7. Population Growth by Region • The rural Northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases. • Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the Southern region.

  8. Population Projections by county • Bergen County will continue to be the state’s most populous county. • By 2018, Ocean will replace Hudson as the state’s fifth most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2008) and Passaic(ranked 9th in 2008) will exchange their population rankings in the state. • Salem will continue to be the least populous county, and Cape May will be the only other county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2018.

  9. Population Projections for New JerseyOverview • Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.

  10. Projections of County Population by Race • The share of non-Hispanic Whites in the state’s population is projected to decline gradually. • Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion of non-Hispanic whites in its population (86% in 2018). • By 2018, non-Hispanic whites will account for just aboutone-third of Essex and Hudson counties’ residents.

  11. Projections of County Population by Race • Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41% by 2018). • Approximately one-half (49.8%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just fourcounties by 2018: Essex, Camden, Union and Middlesex. • Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean and Sussex counties will continue to have less than 5% blacks among their resident population.

  12. Projections of County Population by Race • The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county. • Middlesex,Bergen andHudsoncounties are projected to account for nearly one-half of the state’s total “other races” population in 2018. Approximately one in every four (24%)Middlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2018.

  13. Projections of County Population by Race Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties • However, the proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.

  14. Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin • Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state. • Middlesex, Bergen, Essex and Union counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics. • Together, these six counties will account for about two-third (64.5%) of the state’s total Hispanics by 2018.

  15. Population Projections for New JerseyOverview New Jersey Population by Age: 2008 and 2018 85+ 85+ 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 (Population in thousands) 2008 2018

  16. Projections of County Population by Age • Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (26.2%) of elderly population in the state by 2018, followed by Ocean County (23.8%). • Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth counties will have more than 100,000 senior citizens (65 or older) each by 2018. Together, these four counties will account for 37.5% of the state’s total elderly population. • Hudson County (11.8%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2018.

  17. Projections of County Population by Sex Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties • Females will continue to outnumber males in almost every county except Cumberland and Hunterdon. • The sex ratio ranges from Cape May County’s 92.0 to Cumberland County’s 106.8 in the year 2018.

  18. Labor Force Projections for New JerseyOverview • New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow slower than its population from 2008 to 2018. Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2028

  19. Labor Force Projections by County • Labor force is projected to increase in sixteen counties from 2008 to 2018, but will decline somewhat in Cape May, Essex, Hudson Passaic and Union.

  20. Labor Force Projections by County • Labor Force in Gloucester and Ocean counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the 2008-2018 period. • Parallel to the population growth pattern, the Coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth rate in the Northern regions is projected to below average.

  21. Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region

  22. Labor Force Projections by Age • As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 25.1% by 2018, from 19.1% in 2008. • By 2018, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.8% in Hudson County to more than 30% in Cape May and Ocean counties.

  23. Labor Force Projections by Sex • Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to virtually unchanged at 47% from 2008 to 2018. • The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 46% in Hunterdon County to 49% in Essex County as of 2018.

  24. County Labor Force Projections by Race • The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2008 to 2018. • Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.

  25. County Labor Force Projections by Race Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties • The proportion of “Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.5% in Salem County to 24.4% in Middlesex County by the year 2018.

  26. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin • Hispanics will account for about 95% of the state’s labor force growth between 2008 and 2018. • Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties, except Hudson, from 2008 to 2018.

  27. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin • The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 3.6% in Gloucester County to 38.7% in Hudson County as of 2008. The proportion in these two counties will be 4.8% and 37.9%, respectively, in 2018. • About 69% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2008: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Union. These six counties will still have 65% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2018.

  28. THE END Comments Welcomed Contact: Sen-Yuan Wu @ 609-292-0077 (phone) sywu@dol.state.nj.us (e-mail) http://lwd.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/(URL)

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