1 / 16

An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?

An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?. Dr. Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Chief Science Officer President, American Meteorological Society. AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008. The Quadruple Convergence. Urbanization. Population Growth. A Perfect Storm? (and the impact

leda
Download Presentation

An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships? Dr. Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Chief Science Officer President, American Meteorological Society AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008

  2. The Quadruple Convergence Urbanization Population Growth A Perfect Storm? (and the impact on partnerships) Coastal Vulnerabilities Climate Change

  3. Ten(10) Largest Cities in 1000A.D. (M-Inhabitants) Sum - CY1000 (i=1,10) = 2.12M Source: Tertius Chandler: “4,000 Years of Urban Growth” (1987)

  4. Growth of Mega-Cities Sum – CY2015 (i=1,10) = 209.4M 68.3 (5) Sum – CY2000 (i=1,10) = 166.0M 266.7 (19) Source: UN Population Division, March 2000 379.3 (23) blue = coastal city (18) green = inland city (5)

  5. The March of Urbanization in the World (% global population) Today, 50% of the world’s population live in the cities and 1.3 million people move to the cities every week!

  6. Squatter Cities Kibera (Nairobi) One billion now live in squatter cities (1/6 of global population) Two billion more expected

  7. City-Atmosphere Interactions atmosphere impacts the city city impacts the atmosphere

  8. Tornado – Ft. Worth, TX (March 28, 2000) Path Length: Approximately 3 miles Path Width: 1/4 mileF-Scale: F1 (73-112mph) to F2 (113-157mph) simulation Source: North Central Texas Council of Governments March 28, 2000

  9. France -- Heat Wave (August 13-28, 2003 ) MODIS Imagery • 15,000 excess deaths in France • 30,000 excess deaths in N. Europe • Most in the cities Vegetation index anomaly Surface temperature anomaly Source: Zaitchik et al., 2006 Solid lines demarcate conventional climate zones.

  10. Hurricane Katrina (2005) – Coastal Vulnerability Courtesy of James Franklin, NHC

  11. Beijing -- Mega-City Smog

  12. Coastal Vulnerabilities • 53% U.S. population lives in coastal zone • 10 of 15 largest U.S. cities are coastal • Visitors swell coastal populations • Global Low-Level Coastal Zone: • ≤ 10m msl • 10% world population • 6% world urban population • 200M live ≤ 1m msl High-impact coastal zone

  13. Climate Change Impacts & the CitiesIPCC (FAR, 2007)

  14. Scale-Dependence of Weather Information Needs • Analysis/description of current atmospheric state • Nowcasting/very short-range forecasting (0+ to ~2 hrs) • Short-range mesoscale prediction (~3 to 48 hrs) mesoscale prediction Schematic illustration As the timescale of the prediction decreases -- toward analysis and short- term nowcasting – the observing and forecasting requirements become more application-specific Area (rel.) nowcasting Site of interest Time (rel.) analysis

  15. Urban Needs for Environmental Information • Urban dwellers have different weather information needs than their rural counterparts, due to the diversity of user groups and population sectors, which include: • the general public • air quality management agencies • water supply and sewage providers • electric power industry • fuel suppliers – natural gas, fuel oil, coal, gasoline • transportation sectors – aviation, marine, and surface • emergency response agencies • public safety agencies • insurance companies and underwriters • health care providers • recreation facility providers. The disparate groups of urban users and their weather information needs are a driving force for stronger partnerships among the public, private and academic sectors

  16. thank you! walter.dabberdt@vaisala.com

More Related