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AMY’08 Science and Implementation Plan. http:// mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp /. Jun Matsumoto & Bin Wang The 2nd AMY’08 Workshop at Bali, Indonesia, September 3-4, 2007 Kuta Beach in the morning of September 2, 2007. Backgroung (1).

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  1. AMY’08 Science and Implementation Plan http://mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/ Jun Matsumoto & Bin Wang The 2nd AMY’08 Workshop at Bali, Indonesia, September 3-4, 2007 Kuta Beach in the morning of September 2, 2007

  2. Backgroung (1) • August, 2006 : The concept of the “AMY’08’ was first proposed in the international workshop, “Impact of elevated aerosols on radiation-monsoon-water cycle interaction” in Xi’ning. • The proposal has gained strong supports from CLIVAR and GEWEX of WCRP. The AMY’08 concept has stimulated continuing discussions at GEWEX/MAHARSI monsoon workshop, Tokyo, January 8-10 2007, the GEWEX SSG meeting, Honolulu, January 22-25 2007, and CLIVAR/AA-Monsoon Panel Meeting, Honolulu, Feb. 19-22, 2007.

  3. Backgroung (2) • On Mar. 26-30 2007 in the 28th WCRP-JSC in Zanzibar, Tanzania, the JSC has endorsed the concept of the AMY’08 and the International Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major initiative to promote broad-based climate research for the monsoon systems of the world. The AMY’08 initiative was visualized as “a coordinated national and international observation and modeling activity to better understand the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction and the aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction of the Asian monsoon system, for improving monsoon prediction”.

  4. Backgroung (3) • A series of conferences or workshops has been organized to coordinate the ongoing activities and to plan the AMY’08 after the WCRP-JSC meeting. China hosted the 1-st International Workshop on AMY’08 in Beijing, Apr. 23-25 2007. Informal discussions have been continued in IUGG XXIV 2007 Monsoon system session in Perugia, Italy Jul. 2-13 2007, International symposium, “Celebrating the monsoon”, July 24-28 2007 at Bangalore, India, and the AOGS, Thailand Jul. 30-Aug. 4 2007.

  5. Backgroung (4) • Following the resolution of the First International Workshop on AMY’08 at Beijing, the Second AMY’08 workshop jointly hosted by CLIVAR and GEWEX is now held at Bali, Indonesia on September 3-4, 2007. The major objectives of this workshop are to discuss and finalize the Science plan and Implementation Plan for AMY’08.

  6. Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008(Draft Ver. 5 August 30, 2007)Outline 1. Introduction 1.1 Programmatic development 1.2 Participants 2. Science background 2.1 Diurnal cycle 2.2 Intraseasonal variability 2.3 Annual cycle 2.4 Interannual variability 2.5 Interdecadal variability and future change 2.6 Extreme and high impact weather 3. Science foci 3.1 Cross-cutting themes 3.2 Overarching science questions

  7. 4. Goals and objectives 4.1 The overarching goals 4.2 Objectives 5. Strategy 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building 5.3 Organization 5.4 Collaboration and linkages 6. Planned activities 6.1 Field experiments: Ocean, Land, Special processes 6.2 Data management: Archiving and assimilation 6.3 Modeling coordination: Global coupled models, Regional models 7. Expectations (contributions to AMY, resources, timelines)

  8. 2.1 Diurnal cycles • What is the fundamental relationship between diurnal cycle and surface orography and land/sea configurations? • Is there any specific distance that land derived diurnal signal propagates over the surrounding ocean? • How much diurnal variations over the open ocean affect the diurnal cloud/rainfall variations? • How are diurnal cycles are modulated by MISO and seasonal cycle? • How important is the modulation of the diurnal cycle in interannual monsoon variations? • How can we improve the model physics and correct the model diurnal errors? Will the models getting diurnal cycle right improve the modeling of low-frequency variability (intraseasonal to interannual)?

  9. GPS SG Example in Sumatera Island (Wu et al., submitted) Observation（TRMM）: much rainfall over the Indian Ocean in the vicinity of Sumatera ↓ however… Simulation（high-resolution GCM）: much rainfall over Sumatera island Climatology of rainfall around Sumatera strongly depends on moisture transport processes induced by maritime continent. TRMM （2A25） 6-year average rainfall （1998- 2003） Rainfall system around Sumatera could be simulated by cloud-resolving numerical model. MRI-GCM TL959 （20km mesh） 10-year average rainfall 2004 April mean rainfall (mm/hour) simulated by MM5 mm/year

  10. 2.2 ISV • How do we evaluate model simulations and measure ISO predictability and prediction skill? • What are the current level of performances and common problems in the models? How to correct these systematic errors? • How do the errors in simulating ISO impact simulation of the interannual variability? • To what extent is the MISO predictable? • What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction play in sustaining MISO? • What is the role of mesoscale systems in determining the heating profile (convective/stratiform) and how does this impact the evolution of ISO? How to get them right in the models?

  11. 2.2 ISV (continued) • Do models simulate correctly the heating partitioning between the small-scale, high frequency and large-scale, low frequency disturbances? • What is the role of radiative heating in tropical heating profile? How do model properly moistening the lower-troposphere? • What is the influence of MJO on tropical cyclone and extratropical predictability? • How do low-frequency components of climate modulate MISO and its statistical

  12. Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005) Numbers: four phases, phase interval: 8 days Wang et al. 2006 • Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal(Yasunari 1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and northwestward propagation in WNP(Nitta 1987) • Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band(Maloney and Hartmann 1998,Annamalai and Slingo 2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and Webster 2002,Waliser et al. 2003) • Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E)(Wang, Webster and Teng ‘05) • Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and WNP.

  13. 2.3 Annual cycle • Archive dataset that can describe the comprehensive features of seasonal cycles of the Asian and Australian monsoon. • Identify the principal physical processes which determine the onset and retreat of regional monsoon system, in particular, occurring abrupt manners. • Design metrics for objective, quantitative assessing model performance, predictability and prediction skill. • Provide one-stop data source for cross-project use. • Identify key modeling issues and develop effective strategy for improving models.

  14. 2.3 Annual cycle (continued) • Encourage use of large-domain cloud resolving model or cloud system resolving model simulation to provide surrogate data for studying convective organization, and multi-scale interaction in MISO. • Improve initialization scheme, initial conditions, and representation of slow coupled physics in the coupled climate models. • Develop new strategy and methodology for sub-seasonal monsoon prediction. • Better understand physical basis for seasonal prediction and the ways to quantify the uncertainties associated the prediction.

  15. AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP heat source region Kang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn

  16. Two-tier 5-AGCM MME hindcast of JJA rainfall (21 yrs) Pattern Correlation Coefficient 5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr) • Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM rainfall. • TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall correlations in SM region that are at odds with observation (negative). • Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST results in the failure. OBS SST-rainfall correlation Model SST-rainfall correlation (Wang et al. 2005) Wang et al. 2005

  17. Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In Monsoon ISO Slingo2006: THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report

  18. Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario The general conclusion that emerges of the diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations: Asian summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced. From Kumar et al.

  19. 4.1 The Overarching goals The goal of AMY’08 is to significantly advance our understanding of the physical processes determining the Asian monsoon variability and predictability, to improve Asian monsoon predictions on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for societal benefits as well as for additional benefit of each participating projects, and to promote applications in order to support strategies for sustainable development. Success in meeting this overarching goal is critical to the new World Climate Research Program (WCRP) strategic framework.

  20. 4.2 Objectives In meeting the above goal, the AMY’08 aims to (1) Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmosphere-biosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction from diurnal to intraseasonal, and aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction in the Asian monsoon system. (Prof. Wu & Dr. Lau) (2) Determine the variability and predictability of the key components of Asian monsoon on intraseasonal to interannual time scales. In particular, the role of land surface processes in continental monsoon rainfall prediction. (Dr. Sikka)

  21. 4.2 Objectives(continued) (3) Improve physical representation in coupled climate models and develop data assimilation of the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon regions in order to advance climate prediction system with better forecast skill for seasonal and intraseasonal prediction of Asian monsoon. (Prof. Koike & Dr. Tam) (4) Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season), including a real-time monitoring capability and an integrated hydro-meteorological database in Southeast Asia. (Prof. Satomura & Prof. Hansa)

  22. 4.2 Objectives(continued) (5) Better understand how human activities in the monsoon Asia region interact with atmospheric, terrestrial and marine environmental components. (Dr. Ailikun, Prof. Yasunari)

  23. New coordinated field observation plan • Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (AMY’08) GEWEX- MAHASRI, CEOP CLIVAR- AMMP, IOP, POP ESSP-MAIRS WWRP-TMR – TCS08 THORPEX-YOTC, T-PARC China- 973AIPO,SCHeRex,NPOIMS.… Chinese Taipei- SoWMEX, DOTSTAR, EAMEX India- STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX Japan- JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, PRAISE, ARCS-Asia, PHONE08 Korea- PHONE08 USA- JAMEX

  24. 5.3 OrganizationAMY’08 Working Groups (2007.04.25) Scientific Steering Committee (Responsible for science and implementation plan): • Chairs:Bin Wang, Jun Matsumoto • Members: Guoxiong Wu, William Lau, Toshio Koike, D.R. Sikka, S. Gadgil, Tandong Yao, Congbin Fu, Renhe Zhang, Tetsuzo Yasunari, C.-P. Chang, Jagadish Shukla, Yihui Ding AMY Program Office:Jianping Li

  25. 5.3 Organization(continued) Observation Coordination Working Group: • Chairs:Dongxiao Wang, Manabu D. Yamanaka • Members: Zhanqing Li, Yaoming Ma, Yunqi Ni, Jong-Dao Jou, Popuri Sanjeeva Rao, R.C. Bhatia, Xiangde Xu, Si-Chee Tsay, Jianping Huang, Hongbin Chen, A. Higuchi, T. Nakajima, N. Christina Hsu, Brent Holben, Somchai Baimoung, Thi Tan Thanh Nguyen, Kok-Seng Yap, Fadli Syamsudin, Dolgorsuren Azzaya, Samarendra Karmakar, MadanL. Shrestha Central Data Archiving and Management Working Group: • Chairs: Kooiti Masuda, Guangqing Zhou • Members: Si-Chee Tsay, Kumar D. Preveen, Chi-yung Francis Tam, Mei Gao, M. Rajeevan

  26. 5.3 Organization(continued) Modeling and Prediction Working Group: • Chairs: Harry Hendon, Takehiko Satomura • Members: B. N. Goswami, Kun Yang, Xueshun Shen, Johnny Chan, Yongqiang Yu, Dehui Chen, Ailikun, In-Sik Kang, Jinhai He, Edvin Aldrian, Weijing Li, U.C. Mohanty

  27. The END Thank you! Terima kasih! .

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