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Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead. Moderator: Dr. Paul Try, Senior VP, STC Rapporteurs: Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM) Mr. Floyd Hauth (OFCM/STC) Panelists: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCM Dr. Frank Marks, HRD

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Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

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  1. Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Moderator: Dr. Paul Try, Senior VP, STC Rapporteurs: Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM) Mr. Floyd Hauth (OFCM/STC) Panelists: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCM Dr. Frank Marks, HRD Dr. Ramesh Kakar, NASA Dr. Naomi Surgi, NCEP Dr. Richard Hodur, NRL-Monterey Dr. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island

  2. Strategic Research Plan Overview • Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies • Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC • Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories • Intensity • Structure • Track • Sea state • Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding • Storm surge • Precipitation • Observations

  3. Panel: Related Comments -- R2O Needs Greater Emphasis (Sensor/DA/Modeling/Outreach) Sensors: -- New Satellite and Aircraft capabilities Improving the System -- Continuing support for outyear new technologies (e.g., GEO MW array tech.) Modeling: Good Systematic/Well Planned Model Upgrades -- Moving to ESMF -- Need for Community standards (grids, etc.,) for > interoperability -- Ocean/Wave coupling coming soon -- Research Results Not Fully Realized/Optimized -- Major Improvements in Capability on Horizon!!!BUT ”IFF” (if and only if) Effective Research (incl:data analysis) and Planned R2O Must have greater Human and Computer Capacity Resources (i.e., Supplements in both research (B/A) and R2O required)

  4. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead • Summary: Plan’s Primary Features: • -- Strategic • -- Comprehensive • -- Collaborative • (Multi-agency Consensus) • -- Identifies Resources Required • -- Identifies Gaps 1st Step: Necessary comprehensive basis to build focused implementation on!

  5. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead Next Step (Actions): -- OFCM Multiagency Coordinated Effort (Leverage agency expertise, funding, mission needs, etc.,) -- 10 year TC Research Implementation Plan (Brief: Focused, Annual Review/Update, Timelines, Milestones, etc.,) -- NWP Development Improvement Plan (w/>R2O; > Academia; >resources) -- Strategic TC Recon Improvement Plan (incl: Manned, unmanned, satellite + Observing Strategies) -- OFCM Continue Review Hurricane Warning System -- Increase Focus on Deficiency in NWP Professionals

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