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Outline: Chapter 4 Valuation of Bonds and Stocks

Outline: Chapter 4 Valuation of Bonds and Stocks. Financial Assets Determining Bond Values and Yields Bond valuation Interest rates and bond prices Bonds issued by the government Bonds issue by firms Determining the yield to maturity Bonds with semi-annual interest

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Outline: Chapter 4 Valuation of Bonds and Stocks

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  1. Outline: Chapter 4Valuation of Bonds and Stocks • Financial Assets • Determining Bond Values and Yields • Bond valuation • Interest rates and bond prices • Bonds issued by the government • Bonds issue by firms • Determining the yield to maturity • Bonds with semi-annual interest • Consols and preferred stock • Bond valuation and financial management

  2. Outline: Chapter 4Valuation of Bonds and Stocks(continued) • Determining Common Stock Values • Dividend valuation • No growth in cash dividends • Constant growth in cash dividends • Nonconstant growth in cash dividends • To invest or not to invest? • Non-dividend-paying stocks • Volatility, liquidity, and stock prices

  3. Outline: Chapter 4Valuation of Bonds and Stocks(concluded) • The Present Value of Growth Opportunities • Price/earnings ratios • Growth opportunities and value creation • Growth opportunities and bond valuation • Returns and Financial Management • Returns • Expected versus realized returns • Importance for financial management

  4. Financial Assets • Two major financial assets • Bonds • What is a bond? • A financial asset, or claim against a firm • Promissory note • Fixed income security • Issued by a firm or government • 10 to 30 years maturity • Source of funding for corporations • Stock • What is a stock? • A financial asset, ownership of the firm

  5. Determining Bond Values and Yields • Definitions • Par (maturity) value is the stated or face value of a bond (usually $1,000) • Coupon interest rate is the interest, as a percentage of par, that is paid annually • Maturity is the length or term, expressed in years, at the end of which the firm is legally obligated to redeem the bond at par • New corporate bond issues are sold in the primary market with the proceeds going to the issuing company • Outstanding bonds trade in the secondary market between investors

  6. Determining Bond Values and YieldsBond Valuation • Market price of a bond • Equal to the sum of the present values of the series of interest payments and of the maturity value • Equation

  7. Determining Bond Values and YieldsBond Valuation(continued)

  8. Determining Bond Values and YieldsBond Valuation(concluded) • An example Consider a $1,000 par value bond that has a 10% coupon rate and a 25 year maturity. If this bond has a required rate of return of 10% and pays interest annually, what is its market value? Answer: The market price of the bond is equal to its face value because the market rate (or required rate of return) is equal to the coupon rate

  9. Determining Bond Values and Yields Interest Rates and Bond Prices • Market price of bonds fluctuates with changes in • Risk-free rate • Compensates for changes is expected inflation • Best proxy is short term T-Bill rate • Investors’ risk premium • Bond prices (returns) are negatively (positively) related to • Risk-free rate • Risk premium

  10. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued by the Government • Expected inflation • An example Assume that the 25-year, 10% coupon rate, bond from the last example is a Government of Canada bond. Expected inflation jumps by 6%. If you own this bond what is the new market value of your $1,000 par value bond? Is your bond selling at a premium or a discount from its par value? Answer: Your bond is selling at a discount because the market interest rate is greater than the coupon rate

  11. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued by the Government(continued) • An example Assume that expected inflation falls by 2%, such that the required return is 8% for similar government bonds issued today. What is the market value of your $1,000 par value bond? Is it selling at a premium or a discount? Answer: Your bond is selling at a premium because the market interest rate is less than the coupon rate

  12. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued by the Government(continued) • Interest rate risk and the maturity premium • An example Assume you own a government bond with three years to maturity (instead of 25 years). Coupon rate is still 10%. Relative to a 25-year government bond, how will an increase in expected inflation of 6% and a decrease in expected inflation of 2% affect the value of your three year bond? What can we conclude?

  13. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued by the Government(continued) Answer: Given our previous answers of $634.17 and $1,213.50 we can conclude that bonds of shorter maturity are less sensitive to changes in expected inflation i.e., they have less interest rate risk.

  14. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued by the Government(continued) • Bond’s market price, interest, and maturity Market value of bond ($) 25 - year bond • 1,400 • • • • Par value = 1,000 • 3 – year bond • • • 600 Market rate of interest (%) 0 4 8 12 16

  15. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued By Firms • Unlike government bonds, corporate bonds have • Default premium • To cover expected costs if firm goes out of business • Liquidity premium • To cover expected costs when bonds are not easily traded on secondary markets • Issue-specific premium • To cover expected costs from special provisions attached to bond agreements

  16. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bonds Issued By Firms(concluded) • Reinvestment risk • The risk that an investor's income will fall if there is a need to reinvest in another bond issue • Event risk • Risk shifting due to a firm's capital structure change

  17. Determining Bond Values and Yields Determining a Bond's Yield to Maturity • An example You are told that your 20-year maturity, $1,000 par value bond with an 8% coupon rate sells for $908.32. What discount rate makes the present value of the interest of $80 per year and the maturity value of $1,000 equal to $908.32?

  18. Determining Bond Values and Yields Determining a Bond's Yield to Maturity(concluded) Answer: We know your bond is selling at a discount. This implies that the yield to maturity must be more than 8%. The yield to maturity is simply an internal rate of return By financial calculator, kb = 9%

  19. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bond Values With Semiannual Interest • Equation

  20. Determining Bond Values and Yields Bond Values With Semiannual Interest(concluded) • An example Consider a bond with 20 years to maturity remaining and with a 14% coupon rate that pays interest semiannually. Assume a 10% annual or a 5% semiannual rate of return is presently required on this bond. What is the value of the bond? Answer:

  21. Determining Bond Values and Yields Consol Bonds and Preferred Stock • Consol • Perpetual coupon rate bond • The value of a perpetual bond is • An example If the required rate of return is 7.5% and the coupon rate is 10%, then a $1,000 par value perpetual bond would be worth $100 / 0.075 = $1,333.33

  22. Determining Bond Values and Yields Consol Bonds and Preferred Stock(concluded) • Preferred stock • The valuation is similar to consols as long as the preferred has no sinking fund provisions • An example If a preferred stock has a $50 par value and the dividend is 6.5% per year and the required rate of return is 9%, then the preferred stock's value is ($50)(0.065) / 0.09 = $36.11

  23. Determining Bond Values and Yields BondValuation and Financial Management • Bonds, like stocks, are means of providing capital for firms • Financial managers need to know how to value bonds • Financial managers need to know the yield to maturity, since it helps determine a firm's opportunity cost of capital • Knowing bond valuation helps managers decide between stocks and bonds

  24. Determining Common Stock Values • Definitions to understand common stock valuation

  25. Determining Common Stock Values Common Dividend Valuation • Dividend valuation approach • Common stock value is the present value of all expected cash dividends and future market price • An example You expect $5, $6, and $7 in dividends over the next three years, at which time you expect to sell your stock for $100. What is the current market value if the required rate of return on the stock is 14%? Answer: P0 = $5/(1.14)1 + $6/(1.14)2 + $107/(1.14)3 = $81.22

  26. Determining Common Stock ValuesNo growth in cash dividends • Common stock value is the present value of a perpetuity if infinite constant dividends with no growth is assumed • An example What is Po if you expect $1.00 dividend in perpetuity and ks = 16%? Answer: P0 = $1.00/0.16 = $6.25

  27. Determining Common Stock ValuesConstant Growth in Cash Dividend • Since dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate each year we are valuing a growing perpetuity • Common stock value is the cash dividend expected in one year (at t = 1) divided by the required return adjusted for expected growth

  28. Determining Common Stock ValuesConstant Growth in Cash Dividend(concluded) • Example The current (t=0) cash dividend of $1.00 is expected to grow to grow at 5% per year to infinity. Your required rate of return is 8%. What price would you place on this common stock? Answer:

  29. Determining Common Stock ValuesNonconstant Growth in Cash Dividends • Employ four steps to solve problems involvingnonconstant growth in cash dividends • Step 1: Determine the cash dividends until the series reverts to constant growth to infinity or no growth • Step 2: Determine the first year's dividend after the growth rate changes to constant growth to infinity or no growth • Step 3: Determine the market price of the stock as of the end of the nonconstant (or rapid) growth period • Step 4: Use Equation 4.4 and the required rate of return to discount both the expected cash dividends from step 1 and the expected market price from step 3 back to the present

  30. Determining Common Stock ValuesNonconstant Growth in Cash Dividends(continued) • An example Assume a required rate of return of 16%, Do = $1.00, and 10% growth in dividends for years 1 through 3, followed by 3% compound growth thereafter to infinity. Answer: Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:

  31. Determining Common Stock ValuesNonconstant Growth in Cash Dividends(continued) Step 4: Using Equation 4.4, we discount (by 16%) Dl, D2, D3 and P3 back to t = 0 and get P0 equal to about $9.46 0 1 2 3 4 $1.371 $1. 100 $1.210 $1.331 $0.9483 0.8992 0.8527 6.7565 $9.46 = P0 D $1.371 4 P = = 3 k - g 0.16 - 0.03 S = $10.5462

  32. Determining Common Stock ValuesNonconstant Growth in Cash Dividends(continued) • Relationship between expected growth and market value • There is a direct relationship between the amount and length of expected growth in cash dividends and a stock's market value, as can be seen from the previous calculations. If we had different conditions, then we would have had different results.

  33. Determining Common Stock ValuesNonconstant Growth in Cash Dividends(concluded) • Resulting P0 assumes D0 = $1 and ks = 16%. ConditionResulting P0 g = 0% $6.25 10% Compound growth $8.03 for years 1-3, then g = 0% 10% compound growth $9.46 for years 1-3, then g = 3% to infinity g = 10% to infinity $18.33

  34. Determining Common Stock ValuesTo Invest or not to Invest? • Applying the concept of net present value (NPV) to stocks • Criteria for investment • Invest in all stocks with a NPV > 0 • Do not invest in , or sell, stocks with NPV < 0

  35. Determining Common Stock ValuesTo Invest or not to Invest?(continued) • An example • An investor is considering buying some shares of a stock today when the market price is $20. If it is expected that the current per share dividend (D0) of $1 will grow indefinitely at 10 % per year and the investor has a required rate of return of 16% should he buy the stock? Answer: NPV = $18.33 - $20 = -$1.67 He should not buy the shares

  36. Determining Common Stock ValuesTo Invest or not to Invest?(continued) • Applying the concept of internal rate of return (IRR) to stocks: • Calculate the rate of return that we expect to earn from an investment in the stock and compare it to our required rate of return, ks • Expected rate of return, kx • Criteria for investment: • If kx > ks invest in the stock • If kx < ks do not invest in the stock

  37. Determining Common Stock ValuesTo Invest or not to Invest?(concluded) • An example If an investor pays $15 for a share of stock today when it is expected that the current dividend (D0) of $1 will grow indefinitely at 10 percent per year. If the investor has a required rate of return of 16% should she buy the stock? Since this is greater than her required rate of return of 16%, she should buy this stock.

  38. Determining Common Stock ValuesNon-Dividend Paying Stocks • Three ways to value non-dividend paying stocks • Estimate when the firm will start paying dividends, as well as their size, growth rate, etc. Then proceed as previously discussed • Estimate some future market price and discount it back to the present • Employ earnings and multiply them by some factor (based on perceived growth, risk and/or estimates from similar firms) to arrive at value

  39. Determining Common Stock ValuesVolatility, Liquidity, and Stock Prices • Three variables affecting stock price volatility • Unexpected changes in a firm's cash flows and, therefore, cash dividends • Changes in the discount rate (ks) due to predictable changes in macro forces such as GDP, industrial production, and investment • Unexpected changes in the discount rate used • Investors demand additional compensation for investing in less-liquid stocks

  40. Determining Common Stock ValuesVolatility, Liquidity, and Stock Prices(concluded) • Although most investors do not employ the dividend valuation model directly, the intuition behind the dividend valuation model underlies their decision making process • Common characteristics between the dividend valuation model and investor's decision making process • Focus on cash flows and dividends • Consider the returns needed to compensate them for the risks incurred • Look for growth opportunities

  41. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesPrice/Earnings Ratios • Expected growth is valuable • Other things being equal, the market price of a firm which is expected to grow is higher than the market price of a firm that is not expected to grow • P/E ratio is the market price per share of common stock divided by the earnings per share, EPS • Dividend payout ratio • (Cash dividends paid per share of common stock)/EPS • D1 = (EPS1)(Dividend payout ratio)

  42. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesPrice/Earnings Ratios(concluded) • Using the constant growth model • This implies that the P/E ratio is a function of the firm's dividend payout ratio, the return demanded by investors, ks, and the expected future growth, g, for the firm • High P/E ratios may be "good news" or "bad news"

  43. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Value Creation • The value of a firm does not increase or decrease when it accepts zero NPV projects • To increase the value of the firm, projects with NPV > 0 are necessary • Investing in projects that provide the return demanded by investors, which is also the firm's opportunity cost of capital, does not create value • When firms accept projects with NPV < 0 , the firm and its investors suffer a loss in value

  44. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Value Creation(concluded) • Investing in a project that provides an average rate of return is not growth!

  45. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Bond Valuation • Convertible bonds • Allow the bondholder to exchange the bond for a specified number of common stocks • To value convertible bonds we must recognize: • The conversion date (not the maturity date) is important • The conversion value (not the maturity value) at the conversion date is important • Represent the total value of the shares that the bond will be converted into • Option to wait • This option has value and may be an important consideration in valuing convertible bonds

  46. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Bond Valuation(continued) • An example FSB Inc expects to grow at 8% for the foreseeable future. The firm’s stock is currently trading at $4.63. A years ago the firm issued 15-year bonds with a face value of $1,000 and a coupon rate of 7% that are convertible into 110 shares of common stock. The issue also has a call price of $1,025. FSB will call the bonds when the share price hits $10.87. The current required rate of return is 7.5%. How much would you be willing to pay for one of FSB’s bonds?

  47. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Bond Valuation(continued) Answer: The growth rate is 8% therefore

  48. The Present Value of Growth OpportunitiesGrowth Opportunities and Bond Valuation(concluded) You would be willing to pay up to $1,051.75 for the bond

  49. Returns and Financial ManagementReturns • Returns from investing in any financial asset comes from one of two sources: • Income from interest, dividends and so forth • Capital gains or losses

  50. Returns and Financial ManagementReturns(concluded) • An example You own 100 shares of stock in Canada Ltd. and expect to receive cash dividends of $5.00 per share at time t = 1. You pay $50 per share at time t = 0. At time t = 1, the price per share is $51. What is your return? Answer: k = [$5.00 + ($51 - $50)]/$50 = 12% For the 100 shares, your return is $6.00 ($5 dividend and $1 capital gain) per share or $600.00 total during this time period

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