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Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements

Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements. COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop NATO Studies Centre. Agenda. Underlying Principles Underlying Process Management of the process. What is Defence Policy?.

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Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements

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  1. Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop NATO Studies Centre

  2. Agenda • Underlying Principles • Underlying Process • Management of the process

  3. What is Defence Policy? Defence Policy “ involves the political direction of a nation’s defence resources as a whole with a view to ensuring national security, protecting vital interests and furthering the international aims of the state” …the hand-maiden of a nation’s Foreign Policy

  4. Why? • Major Change • Internal • External • Differing objectives • Appropriate (Roles, Size, Shape, Capabilities, Equipment, Professionalism) • Accountable (mechanisms, openness, transparency) • Affordable (Public Expenditure, Efficiency)

  5. Why? “The aim of the National Defence Strategy is to make Armed Forces and their supporting structures modern, professional, accountable and efficient. They also have to be affordable within a medium term economic framework.”

  6. National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ? Defence Issues

  7. National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ? Security Sector Issues Defence Issues

  8. National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ? State Security Issues Security Sector Issues Defence Issues

  9. National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ? • National Defence Strategy should start from Foreign Policy goals, but it is only a Defence Review • The Security Sector Review is much broader • more holistic approach for SSR, to include all security sector actors • SSR addresses defence as just one element

  10. Advantages of SSR vs NDS • Establish optimum resources for Defence vs rest of public sector • Identify best/alternative means of addressing threats • Identify non-military tasks that require military response

  11. Security Sector Reform Process Develop ContextDescriptions A 1 Identify security threats B 2 Develop Security Policy C 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options D 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options E 7 … Develop Legal Framework F Develop associated Policies, etc 8 G … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies H Publication 9

  12. National security and defence hierarchy NATIONAL SECURITY LEVEL THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY 1 [GOVERNMENT PROGRAM (DEFENCE)] - THE NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY - 2 MILITARY STRATEGIC LEVEL STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND DEPARTAMENTAL PLANS THE NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY 3 GUIDELINES OR STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVES, SPECIFIC TO THE INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE TASK-ASSIGNED IN THE DEFENSE AREA OF EXPERTISE 4 DEFENSE PLANNING GUIDANCE STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVE JOINT STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES PLAN 5 6 JOINT DOCTRINE OF THE ARMED FORCES ANNUAL PLANS CONCERNING THE MODERNIZATION AND THE TRAINING OF FORCES BASED ON LONG TERM PROCUREMENT STRATEGY OPERATIONAL LEVEL SERVICESDOCTRINES REGULATIONS (FIELD MANUALS); DISPOSITIONS; GUIDELINES TACTICAL LEVEL

  13. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 1 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  14. Stage 1: Develop Context Descriptions • What ? • Rational views of the possible future covering best to worst (“scenarios”) • How ? - Based upon establishing “drivers” • Physical, Technological, Economic, Social/Cultural, Legal, Political, Military • Who? • Defence Policy staff • Government Departments (Foreign Affairs, Finance, Interior, Other) • Civil society (academics) • Parliament

  15. The new Strategic Realities (1) • A new Europe and Eurasia • The rise of ethnic and religious tensions • Weak states and ungoverned areas • Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction • Drugs and organised crime • Terrorism • Environmental degradation

  16. The new Strategic Realities (2) • Population growth and demographic change • Urbanisation and transnational migration flows • Resource shortages, especially of water and oil • Globalisation and growing disparities • The pace of technological change • The pace of social change

  17. The New Strategic Environment compared to Cold War Era • More interdependent • More vulnerable due to increasing reliance on technology • More uncertain due to increasing range of challenges & threats • More varied due to the nature of challenges & threats • More demanding due to complexity • An environment with smaller scale, but more frequent use of force international issues, often asymmetrical operations

  18. The New Strategic Environment (2) • Complex, dynamic, having a lot of instability sources • The threat of a major military conflict has diminished Risks • Regional (tensions and conflicts that may extend) • Asymmetric (terrorism, weapons mass destruction) • Transnational (drug trafficking, organized crime, illegal immigration) • Contingencies (placed in the area of uncertainty)

  19. Other factors • National interests • Values • International Commitments and Responsibilities • Security Priorities: • Support to the Civil Power • Europe • Outside Europe

  20. Future worlds

  21. Future worlds

  22. Constitutional, peaceful and stable Professionalising military with gradually improving civil military relations Professionalising military with difficult civil military relations Contempt of constitution and law Military government Disintegration and warlordism Military drivers Best state Problem state

  23. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 2 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  24. Stage 2 - Develop Threat Descriptions • What ? Agreed understanding of security threats within chosen future worlds • How ? Individual , then group view

  25. Risk analysis No set format, should include: • Political & security risk analysis • Political threat assessment • Intelligence & security briefs • Military threat analysis • Military estimate (Aim, Factors, Own course, Plan/Recommendation) • Economic risk analysis • Commercial risk analysis

  26. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 3 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  27. Stage 3 - Establish Security Policy • What? • Statement of broad defence requirements of the State and role of the military and other instruments of State in addressing identified threats. • How? Based upon • Threats • Previously agreed policies or obligations (including regional co-operation) • Who? National Security Council & • Defence Policy staff • Foreign Ministry • Interior Ministry • Finance Ministry • Other Government Ministries • Civil Society • Parliament

  28. National Security Strategy International Environment Domestic Environment Assumptions Opportunities/ Threats Potential Power Analysis RISK COST National Interests MEANS ENDS Actual Power/ Instruments Objectives Plans Priorities Implementation Statecraft Policies and Results Evaluation

  29. Role of Foreign Affairs Ministry Role of Finance Ministry Role of Internal Affairs Role of Presidents/Prime Ministers Office Role of Justice Ministry Role of Intelligence Role of Education/ Health etc Stage 3 - Security Policy Components Role of Defence

  30. Stage 3 - Security Policy Foreign Affairs Finance Internal Affairs President’s/ Prime Ministers Office Justice Intelligence Defence Education/ Health etc

  31. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 4 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  32. Stage 4 - Develop Defence Policy • What? • Statement of defence role in meeting security priorities • How? • Based upon Security Policy • Who? • Defence Policy staff • Civil Society • Other Government Departments

  33. National Defence Strategy Process Develop ContextDescriptions Develop military threat descriptions Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capability & Force Options Develop associated policies processes structures

  34. Joint Strategic Planning System Capability Planning Requirements Planning Operational Planning Defence Policy Planning Resource Planning Effective linkage is essential

  35. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 5 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  36. Stage 5 - Develop Defence Missions and Military Tasks • What ? • Defence Missions & associated Military Tasks • How ? • Based on Defence policy and planning assumptions • Who ? • Defence Policy staff • Military Operational Staff • Military Support Staff

  37. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 6 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  38. Stage 6 - Develop Capability & Force Options • What? Options for Military Capability: Command & control; intelligence & surveillance; maneuver (doctrine and training); mobility & counter-mobility; firepower; protection; logistics • How? - Based upon components of missions and military tasks, planning assumptions, military doctrine • Who? - Defence Policy staff; Military Operational Staff; Military Support Staff; Civil Society ?

  39. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 7 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  40. Stage 7 - Agreement of Options • What ? • Agreed Military Capability • How ? • Costed options assessed against national needs • Who? • Defence Minister • Chief of Staff • Finance Minister • Cabinet/Prime Minister/President • Civil Society?

  41. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 8 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 77 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  42. Stage 8 - Develop associated policies, processes, structures etc • Personnel • Procurement & Logistics • Finance • Policy and planning • Accountability • Linkages to rest of government

  43. Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 9 Develop ContextDescriptions 1 Identify security threats 2 Develop Security Policy 3 5 6 Develop Defence Policy Develop Missions & Tasks Develop Capabilities & Force options 4 … Develop Law & Order Policy Agreement of options 7 … Develop Legal Framework Develop associated Policies, etc 8 … Develop Foreign policy … Amend social policies Publication 9

  44. Stage 9 - Publication • Make publicly available • Parliamentary debate

  45. Timetable • Will probably take longer than planned! Other countries experience:14 months to 2 years

  46. Management of the National Defence Strategy • Institutional framework • Top level involvement/support • Clear aims and objectives • Dedicated coordinating team • Continuity of (key) participants • Open and Inclusive process • Plan and manage the project • Realistic implementation plan

  47. Implementation • Long term • Quick wins • Build into normal planning processes • Delegate responsibility to specific individuals • Monitor progress, including oversight by Parliament • Flexible

  48. Questions ?

  49. 1st Border insecurity - dispute Norvetia /Eastlandia 2nd Destabilising external influences 3rd Border insecurity – Muslim armed separatist movement / Thrucazia 4th Organised crime, terrorism, proliferation WMD 5th Internal security – tensions Muslim community Civil disaster – major event 6th 7th Environmental stress/resource constraints – inadequate resources available Invenzia Generic Threats

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