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Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society

Community Activities and Plans A.Will (BTU Cottbus) and the CLM-Community COSMO Meeting, Krak ów, 15-19 September 2008. Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society.

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Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society

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  1. CommunityActivities and Plans A.Will (BTU Cottbus) and the CLM-CommunityCOSMO Meeting, Kraków, 15-19 September 2008

  2. Relevance of Weather Prediction and Climate Change in the Society Google: Energy 527 106,Weather 481 106, Climate 146 106, Climate Change 53 106 Content of Physics Schoolbooks Classes 7/8 in Germany 2008: Optics, Mechanics, Elektricity, Heat, Atom- and Nuclear Physics, Acustics Additionally: Human, Energy and Environment with Renewable Energies, Atmospheric Physics, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity

  3. Economical Relevance of NWP and RCMExample: Current Line Overload Overload of 110KV current lines in 2007 Meteorological conditions for cooling of current lines assumed now: 0.5 m/s, 293.15 K Costs in 2007 of not transported electricity from windmills in northern Germany approx. 30 Mill. E Prediction of meteorological conditions in nowcasting and for future climate conditions Reason: extended wind-energy production in coastal regions and lack of consumers there

  4. Development of the CLM-Community New in 2007/2008: National Autonomous University of Mexico

  5. >5 new

  6. Cooperations 2008 COSMO Meeting CLM-Community Assembly COSMO/CLM Training and Seminar Community Univ./R.Cent. NWP-research Steering Committee CLM Coordination, Steering group Data Assimilation Preprocessing (PPP,PEP, int2lm) Reference Version User Support / Technical Aspects Dynamics and Numerics Numerical Aspects PP COLOBOC Physical Aspects Soil and Vegetation WG Chem.&Aeros. Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation Verification Interpretation and Application Evaluation

  7. Regions of Applicationand Transferability Studies verschiedene (50km - 3km) e.g. Polar Lows,CoastDat2 PACES / Laptev See Downscaling Experimente TROPCYC/ Taifune Panama Niederschlag ICTS RiftLink (FU Berlin) REGCLIMOSS ENSEMBLES-AMMA

  8. Fields of Activity:Model Development

  9. Preprocessor PEP Version 0.5 Provision of time invariant boundary data: Topography, vegetation, soils and others • Option DWD (operational): • Option ECO/DWD • monthly resolution of the vegetation parameters + FAO/DWD Soil • Option ECOCLIMAP • Monthly resolution + FAO/STASGO Soil Requirements: Fortran Compiler, NetCDF library, Perl, Perl-NetCDF, PerlGTK2 9 | V. Name | Organisationseinheit | TT.MM.JJJJ

  10. PGF90 GNU Fortran (Intel, AMD) GNU Fortran /Mac Preprocessor PEP Version 0.5 IN DWD Option Makefiles for

  11. Available parameter datain PEP

  12. Fields of Activity:Analysis of Phenomena and Components Publications 2007/2008 • September 2008 • Regional Climate Modelling with • COSMO-CLM • Special offer 10,- EUR at COSMO meeting • Simulation Results with • CLM_3 and • COSMO-CLM (cosmo_4) • summer cold bias (SCB) for COSMO-CLM SCB found for most configurations and external data. Final report this year.

  13. Fields of Activity:Analysis of Phenomena and Components Reports 2007/2008 www.clm-community.eu 1. H.-D. Hollweg et al. (MaD, BTU) Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios Presentation in December (Cottbus) 13 Variables, 35 Regions, 4x140y 2. Will, Woldt (BTU): Comparison of COSMO-CLM results with CM-SAF products: Radiation components ToA and at the Surface and Cloud Properties 16 Variables, 35 Regions, 2006

  14. Vergleich 1: Fields of Activity:Model Evaluation 1979-1998 Comarison 1: Quality of the regional model

  15. Vergleich 2 (20y) Fields of Activity:Evaluation versus control runs (1979-1998) Comparison2: Influence of the global model and internal variability

  16. Vergleich 3 (20y) Fields of Activity:ECHAM5 and COSMO model simulations Camparison 3: global model and the control climate

  17. Vergleich 4: (20y) Fields of Activity:COSMO climate change signal (50y) Comparison 4: Variability of the climate change signal

  18. Vergleich 5: T_2m, Klimatologischer Jahresgang (MEU) Fields of Activity:Added value of the COSMO model simulation Comparison 5: Consistencyof the climate change signal and Added Value

  19. Suggestions / Last Slide The CLM-Community is looking forward to future cooperation with COSMO Suggestions for future COSMO-CLM projects: • Categorisation and self explaining description of the namelist parameters • implementation of new developments as additional features with a dedicated time to make own tests. • Diagnostic for forecast times from 6h up to the climate state to better understand and fix the occurring problems. • List of variables characterising model physics and dynamics by the WGs • To shear observations for evaluation and verification for at least one year • To exchange mailing lest members Dziękóję bardzo za cierpliwość ! / Thank you very much for your attention !

  20. Fields of Activity:Climate Configuration, TERRA, daily forcing Dz(k+1)=S x Dz(k) S=3 S=2 S=1.5 S=1.2 Daily Forcing red: rock blue: clay Resolved by – – 16 points • • • 8 points – • – 4 points – • • 2 points at the surface and 1 point if T=0.1 K

  21. Introduction Regional Climate and Weather in the media. Schoolbooks National Economy is strongly affected by local Weather and Climate conditions (wind energy) Overviews Development of the CLM-Community Locations Members Working Groups and Projects Activities Regions of Simulation , Transferability Studies(Rockel) Fields of cooperation with COSMO COSMO/CLM Training and COSMO/CLM Seminar Homepage Standard configurations WG on Chemistry and Aerosols PP COLOBOC Education for Weather Services (B.Frueh (DWD), F.Kaspar (DWD), R.Stoeckli (MeteoSwiss) Regional climate Activities by COSMO-members (DWD, CIRA) Publications Special Issue, Meteorol.Z. 4.2008: Regional Climate Modelling with COSMO-CLM Final Draft of the Report: Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios (Description and Quality) First Draft of the Report: Comparison of COSMO-CLM results with CM-SAF products: Radiation components ToA and at the Surface and Cloud Properties Selected Results Sensitivity of Precipitation to model configuration Parameterizations: Bachner etal. Resolution: Feldmann Evaluation of Radiation Components Problems Identified Annual cycle in ΔT_2M (positive in MED and negative in SCA in JJA) Summer cold bias in COSMO-CLM for many configurations Too high total cloud cover and near surface RELHUM over land Model Developments Version maintenance of ppp, pep int2lm_clm, and cosmo_clm Regional Earth System Model COSMO-CLM – ComLandM (Senev.) COSMO-CLM – OASIS - Ocean (started) COSMO-CLM – Chemistry and Aerosols started Routing scheme Elbe (PIK) Mediterranean (IMK-IFU) Contributions to COSMO-CLM model systemit

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