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STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS

STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS. LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION BASICS OBJECTIVES. INTRODUCTION. Statistical thinking Logical reasoning Data needed and proxies How to get the data Statistical tools Numerology. INTRODUCTION.

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STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS

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  1. STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION BASICS OBJECTIVES

  2. INTRODUCTION • Statistical thinking • Logical reasoning • Data needed and proxies • How to get the data • Statistical tools • Numerology

  3. INTRODUCTION • Good managers and directors get impress by intelligent comments (you can fool mediocre managers by appealing to his/her ego!!!) • Grading in class: good comments and group work is also rewarded. I try to measure everything!!!

  4. BASICS I

  5. BASIC PROBLEM I • Endogeneity • Circularity • Egg and chicken • Causality and correlation: two very different concepts!!

  6. BASIC PROBLEM I • Interpretation of any graph/table implies many assumptions. • However, these assumptions are almost never explicit. • Assumptions for the interpretation of the previous graph? • Direction • Omission

  7. BASICS II • 1936 US presidential election • Sampling list: mail out ballot cards to residential telephone subscribers and owners of cars. • Result of the poll: Landon (republican) will win with 57% of the vote over Roosevelt (democract).

  8. BASICS II • Outcome of the election: Roosevelt won with 62.5% of the votes (523 of the 531 electoral votes!!) • What happened? GROUP EXERCISE

  9. BASICS PROBLEM II • Sample selection problem. • Training courses for employees. • GROUP WORK

  10. BASICS PROBLEM II • Therapy of hormonal replacement for women with menopause. Does it work? • Possible problem. • Solution. • Why did the result with observational data was wrong? GROUP EXERCISE

  11. SOLUTION if possible • Randomized experiment. Example. • In business this alternative is NEVER AVAILABLE. • Look for other designs: “clever” regression.

  12. IMPORTANT!! • Statistical methods are never wrong! • It is their application by clumsy, un- experienced or careless researchers that makes the results wrong. • Remember: if you get the design /assumptions /data right the results will always be right.

  13. OBJECTIVES • Logical thinking using statistical facts. • Proper interpretation of statistical results • Posing hypothesis and checking their likelihood. • Sources of data.

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