Whether the Abenomics Still Has Positive Effects On Japanese Economy?

ABE Whether the Abenomics Still Has Positive Effects On Japanese Economy? Present by Lun Wei(Allen) Fanjian Kong(Frank) Fanqi Peng(Jack) Pan Rao(Damon)

Shinzo Abe • 96th and current Prime Minister of Japan • the President of the LDP and chairman of the Oyagaku propulsion parliamentary group • right-wing nationalist • born into a political family

Abenomics • Three arrows • 1. fiscal stimulus: fiscal spending will increase by 2% of GDP • 2. monetary easing: 2% target inflation rate through quantitative easing • 3. structural reforms: encourage private investment 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Background • Lost Decade since the burst of the Japanese asset price bubble in the early 1990s. • Raised consumption tax from 3% to 5% in 1997. • Global economic recession in 2008. • Yoshihiko Noda government passed a bill to Increase consumption tax rate to 8% in 2014 and 10% in 2015. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

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Effects • Depreciation of Japanese yen • Unemployment rate fell from 4% in the final quarter of 2012 to 3.7% in the first quarter of 2013 • The yen became about 25% lower against the U.S dollar • The stock market had risen by 55%. • Worsened Japan’s trade deficit as the weaker yen increased the cost of imports. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

在此录入文字目录 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录 Nationality and characteristic of Japanese

Sense of discipline • Mikado ---the emperor of Japan. • Supreme leader of Shintoism in Japan. • There were huge amount of Japanese adore the Mikado and follow the Mikado especially in WW2 enthusiastically. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Japan in WW2 • The Mikado of Japan took an important role in WW2 include the invasion in China during 1937-1945 • Due to the sense of discipline, the Japan Army kill thousands and millions of people in China by following the instructions of the Mikado and the order by the superior. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Characteristic of Japanese 1.The Japanese always follow their boss order without any excuse no matter it is right or wrong. 2. Japanese tend to do their best in order to reach the standard which was set by their leaders. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Fact of WW2 • The Prime Ministers of Japan had apologized to China for the WWII about 23 times. • Meanwhile, the prime ministers in Japan are trying to obscure the fact of invasion to the other Asian country.(make it ambiguous among the Japanese). Evident:The time that the prime ministers had visited Yasukuni Shrine was 25 times • These 2 things seem very contradictory. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine • Background of Yasukuni Shrine: honers the class A WWII criminals. The visiting of Abe to Yasukuni Shrine hurt the people in neighbour country such as China and Korea. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Explaination of Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine • By visiting Yasukuni Shrine and obscure the fact of invasion to the other Asian country, the prime minister can keep a good reputation and authority of Mikado among the Japanese. • That is the way how the Japanese protect their leader(Mikado). 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Explaination of Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine Mr Abe is convincing his people that 1.Japan is a superior nation and it is better than any other country in Asia. 2. Outside of Japan, when it comes to visiting to Yasukuni, Mr Abe had to behave himself in a Japan-oriented way. Only in this way, he can lead Japanese people to believe in thier country and sacrifice for their country, thus, they will work harder, learn harder, which will improve national economy. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Economic Model Endogenous Model SenseofDiscipline Japanesecompletelyfollowtheeconomicpolicyandbirthcontrolpolicy Workharder, studyharder, Lowerbirthrate. Positiveimpact Lowerpopulationgrowthrate. Economictake-offduring1960-1980 Higherhumancapitalandlowerbirthrate SolowModel Endogenous Model Lackoflaborforce Economicslowdownnowadays. Negativeimpact

Change in characteristic among Japanese man –Herbivoremenhypothesis • Herbivore men(草食男，草食系男子,초식계)or grasseaters • Trait: • 1.The men who shun marriage and rufuse to fall in love with girl. • 2.They are quiet, mild, lack of ambition • 3.Behave became feminized(女性化) 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Reason • Herbivore men: • 1Age between20-30. • 2 Born in a enviroment that lack of competitions. They don‘t have to worry what they eat and what they dress. 3These type of men became passive and tend to wait for the opportunities rather than searching for opportunities 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Effect on Economy • Herbivore men don't like to pay a lot of times and attentions on their jobs and works. Meanwhile, they like to spent their time at home by themselves. • The saving behavior of Herbivore men are tend to be conservative. They don't like to spent time on manage their money matter and investment. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Effects on economy 1 Lead to lower and lower birth rate (Herbivore men tend to avoid marriage), in long run, it will do harm to the economic growth. 2 The herbivore men in business became mild and lack of competitiveness. It will go against economic growth. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Revive the economy • Herbivore men hypothesisshow a negative development trend on nationalism. But Abe want to achieve the high economic growth again like the period in post world war 2. In the period of post ww2, Japanese government energize the Japanese economy by arousing people's nationalistic zeal in their mind. And their patriotic love for their country. Thus people worker harder and study harder in order to sacrifice for their country in the future. 在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录在此录入文字目录

Herbivore men hypothesis • TherearelotofreasonsandfactsthatleadedtoJapaneconomicslowdown.SuchastechnologydevelopmentinKoreaaremuchmorefasterthanJapantodayduetoimporttechnologiesdirectlyformUS.AndProfHughPatrickatHarvardsaidthatyoungJapaneseareasgoodastheoldJapanesealthoughtheymaylookdifferent.Butinthenearfuture,wecanseetheHerbivoremenhypothesiseffecttheJapaneconomyornot.

political

Simple Economic Policies • no special or new strategy • depreciation • Plaza Accord 1985

Political Appeals • make Japan a normal country • concentrate state power • central bank • implement Abenomics • cabinet legislative bureau • change constitution and get the right of collective self-defence • state television

Political Appeals • improve all citizens confidence • depreciate currency • reduce other Asian countries competitive power • visit Yasukuni Shrine • redefine Japan's actions during the second world war.

Fanli Asian Economic Region Flying Geese Model

Politicalaspect

Politicalactions Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni (靖国神社） The interview with Mr. Honda from WSJ was quiet surprising, which was about the reason of Mr. Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni and the subtext of Japanese military build-up, which was denied later.

Mr.Abe’s aggression on Fishing Island

Besides, Japan had been arguing with Korea about the Takeshima Island for a long time.

Consequencesof Political Side of Abenomics Besides, American government leader announced that they did not believe in Mr. Abe’s visiting at first, but they also got astonished after they had confirmed the news. America had thrown cold water on Japan. The commander of U.S Forces in Japan had emphasized that American military will not be involved with the conflict between China and Japan due to the Fishing Island issue.

Thereflections of other countries’s media towards Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni Korean Media, YTN TV Station said, Abe will rise while the whole Japan is going to fall Russian News Media, said, Top leader of Japan should not knee down in front of Japan’s criminals. Switzerland Media said, Abe’s promise for permanent peace is just saying. Malaysia Media said, Abe’s visiting to Yasukuni worsened the its relationship with the whole Asia.

Mr. Abe had aroused China’s public anger.

Economy consequences due to the political effect aroused by Abenomics The import and export from Japan to China and China to Japan had been descended sharply.

Empirical experience In 2013, volume of the trade between China and Japan was 312.55 billion dollar, which was decreased by 5.1%. Volume of goods and services export from China to Japan was 150.28 billion dollar, which was decreased by 0.9%. Volume of goods and services import from Japan to China was 162.28 billion dollar, which was decreased by 8.7%.

Empiricalexperience In 2012, nominal GDP of Japan is 5938.545 billion US dollar In 2013, nominal GDP of Japan is 4898.113 billion US dollar Decreased by 17.5%

Conclusion Mr. Abe’s political strategy does not suit for the situations in the present-day. It is undoubted that it is efficient to improve economy by arousing people’s passion and love for their country, which is also increasing human capital. However, if Mr. Abe keeps establishing his policy, it would harm the relationship with Japan and the whole Asia, which will definitely lead to a economy descend. Abenomics is only ethnocentrism if Japan does not behave humble to other countries. Abenomics, as an extremely dangerous political policy that it can hardly help Japan to develop economy in the future.

Whether the Abenomics Still Has Positive Effects On Japanese Economy?