Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

1. Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014

2. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

3. A Little History • Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997 • US Naval Research Laboratory • EVA Airways • MITRE Corporation

4. Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS AeroSafety World November2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

5. Benefits • Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment • Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index • Full explanation and breakdown of risk components • Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

6. Levels of Use • Corporate Management • Safety Department • Dispatch, Crew

7. How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies Central Server calculates Risk Index ALERT! Safety Manager Supporting Operations Databases

8. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors • Sector (City-pair) Factors • Aircraft Factors

9. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System • Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases • Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

10. Output • Risk Index • Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0 • Relative score • Compare to baseline (average) • Critical Parameter identification • Identify actionable over-limit parameters 10.0 1.0

11. Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2nd level review

12. FORAS Interface (EVA example)

13. Example: Single fleet, single route trend

14. Example: Single fleet comparison

15. What are the critical parameters?

16. Critical Parameters – City pair

17. Critical Parameter – One fleet

18. Method

19. Knowledge-based System Experts Performance Data Forensic Event Analyses Studies and Statistics

20. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

21. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

22. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

23. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

24. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

25. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Computation Flows Upwards

26. Example Risk Factors (ALAR) • Conditions which lead to increased risk • Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): • Inter-crew communication • Crew experience • Experience at airport • Transient fatigue • Cumulative fatigue • Approach and Landing related MEL items • Sector length • ATC skill • Complex approach • Airport congestion • Visual Conditions

27. FORAS Foundation • Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. • FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management • Managed by a committee of trustees • Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models • Progressively priced based on fleet size • Available installation and training • Stand-alone or cloud-based installation • Generic or customized risk models

28. FORAS Requirements • Crew Roster and Tracking • Flight Information System, MEL data • NOTAM access • Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

29. FORAS Foundation Further Information • Contact Flight Safety Foundation • Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation • Danny Ho, EVA Air

30. Summary

31. Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

32. Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

33. Thank you • Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation