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Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755. Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS. Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System. Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment

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Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

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  1. Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014

  2. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

  3. A Little History • Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997 • US Naval Research Laboratory • EVA Airways • MITRE Corporation

  4. Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS AeroSafety World November2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

  5. Benefits • Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment • Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index • Full explanation and breakdown of risk components • Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

  6. Levels of Use • Corporate Management • Safety Department • Dispatch, Crew

  7. How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies Central Server calculates Risk Index ALERT! Safety Manager Supporting Operations Databases

  8. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors • Sector (City-pair) Factors • Aircraft Factors

  9. Input • Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: • Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System • Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases • Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

  10. Output • Risk Index • Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0 • Relative score • Compare to baseline (average) • Critical Parameter identification • Identify actionable over-limit parameters 10.0 1.0

  11. Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2nd level review

  12. FORAS Interface (EVA example)

  13. Example: Single fleet, single route trend

  14. Example: Single fleet comparison

  15. What are the critical parameters?

  16. Critical Parameters – City pair

  17. Critical Parameter – One fleet

  18. Method

  19. Knowledge-based System Experts Performance Data Forensic Event Analyses Studies and Statistics

  20. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  21. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  22. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  23. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  24. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

  25. Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Computation Flows Upwards

  26. Example Risk Factors (ALAR) • Conditions which lead to increased risk • Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): • Inter-crew communication • Crew experience • Experience at airport • Transient fatigue • Cumulative fatigue • Approach and Landing related MEL items • Sector length • ATC skill • Complex approach • Airport congestion • Visual Conditions

  27. FORAS Foundation • Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. • FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management • Managed by a committee of trustees • Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models • Progressively priced based on fleet size • Available installation and training • Stand-alone or cloud-based installation • Generic or customized risk models

  28. FORAS Requirements • Crew Roster and Tracking • Flight Information System, MEL data • NOTAM access • Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

  29. FORAS Foundation Further Information • Contact Flight Safety Foundation • Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation • Danny Ho, EVA Air

  30. Summary

  31. Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

  32. Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

  33. Thank you • Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation

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