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Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearity and Feedbacks: New Terms for a New Millennium

Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearity and Feedbacks: New Terms for a New Millennium. We must transition out of our 19 th century view of Technology as basic engineering works and into a new view of Technology as an agent which changes material and energy flows within the earth.

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Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearity and Feedbacks: New Terms for a New Millennium

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  1. Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearity and Feedbacks: New Terms for a New Millennium We must transition out of our 19th century view of Technology as basic engineering works and into a new view of Technology as an agent which changes material and energy flows within the earth. Then we must develop an appropriate management plan in the wake of increasing unknown responses. Are we Brave Enough to do this?

  2. UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY FEEDBACKS

  3. We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES (the industrial revolution) to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS (chaos introduced by Humans)

  4. Whereas MACHINES • can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) • exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior • show proportionality of cause and effect, and (i.e. they are linear systems) • can be managed because their behavior predictable. . .

  5. COMPLEX SYTEMS • are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) • can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums) • show disproportionally of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), and • cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.

  6. We’re moving from a world of RISK to a world of UNCERTAINTY (unknown unknowns)

  7. So, we must move from “management” to Complex Adaptation Climate Change Climate Disruption Climate Volatility

  8. Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

  9. Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009): 240-44

  10. Statistical Outcomes IPCC 2007

  11. New Fields of Study Needed to Help With Management

  12. UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY FEEDBACKS

  13. LAGS • Between emission and climate response • Between cuts to emissions and reduction of warming • Between policy decision to change energy infrastructure and completion of this change

  14. “ [We show] that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near zero future carbon emissions. . . . As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.” Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira (2008), “Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions,” Geophys. Res. Lett.

  15. Hansen, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7 (2007): 2287-2312.

  16. UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY FEEDBACKS

  17. A Non-Linearity Ice Accumulation Rate (meters per year) Years before Present

  18. A Non Linearity 2008 4.52 mK2

  19. Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly. Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

  20. Up to 40 percent decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years Strengthening of the winds around Antarctica increases exposure of carbon-rich deep waters Strengthening of the winds due to global warming and the ozone hole Declining efficiency of the ocean sink Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science

  21. UNCERTAINTY LAGS NONLINEARITY FEEDBACKS

  22. Increased Carbon Dioxide amounts Global Air Temperature Increases Water vapor positive feedback Increased Greenhouse Absorption Increased Water Vapor In Atmosphere

  23. More rapid warming at poles Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming radiative positive feedback, fast Increased ocean absorption of sun’s energy Melting of ice Lower reflectivity of ocean surface

  24. Atmospheric warming emissions cycle positive feedback, slow Increased emissions Decreased efficiency of carbon sinks

  25. Atmospheric warming Accelerated carbon cycle positive feedback, potentially fast Death of forests Release of CO2 Rotting and burning of organic matter

  26. Atmospheric warming Methane cycle positive feedback, potentially fast Release of CH4 and CO2 Melting of permafrost Rotting of organic matter

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