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Risk

Risk. Risk is the product of Probability that something will go wrong And Severity of its consequences How to reduce risk? Reduce probability that something will go wrong Reduce severity of consequences. Technical Risk Management TRM. TRM 4-step Methodology Risk Identification

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Risk

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  1. Risk • Risk is the product of • Probability that something will go wrong And • Severity of its consequences • How to reduce risk? • Reduce probability that something will go wrong • Reduce severity of consequences

  2. Technical Risk ManagementTRM • TRM 4-step Methodology • Risk Identification • Risk Assessment • Risk Mitigation • Risk Monitoring

  3. Risk Identification • Risk Identification is best done as a group • Identify the desired outcome • Use brainstorming methods to identify risks • Continue until no more risks are identified

  4. Risk Assessment • Risk Assessment • What are the odds of the risk event occurring • Rare • Unlikely • Possible • Likely • Frequent

  5. Risk Assessment • Risk Assessment • What are the consequences of the risk event • Catastrophic • Severe • Marginal (not severe but significant enough) • Negligible • In design projects, the consequences are usually in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS targets.

  6. Risk Scoring Matrix

  7. Risk Assessment • Levels of Risk • Extreme – Do not accept level of risk • High – Do not accept level of risk • Medium – Mitigate if resources allow • Low - Accept

  8. Risk Mitigation Plan • Reducing the probability of failure • More knowledge  Less Risk • More accurate assessment • Analysis • Simulation • Experimentation • Published studies, statistical data • Design changes

  9. Risk Mitigation Plan • Reducing consequences of events • More accurate assessment of consequences • Analysis • Simulation • Experimentation • Published studies • Design Changes

  10. Example • Assessment: • Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic. • Mitigation • Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely. • Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR • Select higher strength or larger bolts • Add features to contain damage in case of failure

  11. Example • Risk • Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off • Probability: High • Consequences: Severe injury or death • Risk Assessment: Extreme

  12. Example • Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event) • More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm • Conclusions: Very unlikely • Design Changes • Add screws or other retaining parts • Use epoxy • Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

  13. Example • Mitigation (Reducing consequences) • More accurate assessment of consequences • Remains catastrophic • Reducing consequences of the event • Add an enclosure • Operate remotely

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