Ec 1661 / API 135 Section Climate Change Science, Economics and Policy

1. Ec 1661 / API 135 SectionClimate Change Science, Economics and Policy Gabe Chan

2. Climate Science

3. Temperature Records Variations in the Earth’s surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, 2001)

4. Temperature Records Annual anomalies of global land-surface air temperature (°C), 1850 to 2005, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean. The smooth curves show decadal variations. (IPCC, 2007) Black: CRUTEM3, UK Met Office (Brohan et al.,2006) Blue: NOAA, National Climatic Data Center (Smith and Reynolds, 2005) Red: NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen et al., 2001; red) Green: Lugina et al. (2005)

5. Radiative Forcing and the Greenhouse Effect The mean annual radiation and heatbalance of the Earth. From Houghton et al., (1996: 58), which used data from Kiehl and Trenberth (1996). Figure from Withgott and Brennan (2007)

6. Radiative Forcing by Agent

7. Global Warming Potentials (IPCC, 2007) What are the implications for mitigation policy?

8. Historical Atmospheric CO2 Concentration first humans out of Africa

9. Changes in GHGs

10. Carbon Emissions and Concentrations 2000 2100 2200 2300 (IPCC, 2007)

11. Who Is Responsible? • Relative contributions by developing and developed countries to a) cumulative CO2 emissions, b) current annual CO2 emissions, c) the growth in CO2 emissions, and d) population (Raupach, et al., 2007)

12. Who Is Responsible? • Relative contributions by developing and developed countries to a) cumulative CO2 emissions, b) current annual CO2 emissions, c) the growth in CO2 emissions, and d) population (Raupach, et al., 2007)

13. Regional Distribution of GHG Emissions by Population and GDP

14. Climate Impacts

15. Sea Level Rise

16. Climate Impacts

18. Climate Policy

19. Timeline of Climate Policy Milestones (Ranson)

20. The Kyoto Protocol • Basics: • Participating Annex I (B) countries pledged to reduce emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 • Criticisms: “too little, too fast” • ● country exclusions (U.S.), • ● non-binding caps (China, India, etc.), • ● no long-term incentives, • ● no enforcement mechanism, • ● ambitious short-term targets • Strengths: • ● Market-based mechanism (emission trading, CDM) • ● Passed political “existence” test

21. Kyoto Emission Reduction Targets

22. Policy Instruments for GHG Control • Voluntary agreements (e.g. USCAP) • These already exist; environmental impact is close to zero • Command-and-control regulation (e.g. energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) • Not cost-effective, requires extensive information, behavioral advantages? • Carbon taxes • Cost-effective, but politically challenging • Cap-and-trade systems • Also cost-effective, politically more feasible? • Hybrid systems (essentially a cap-and-trade system with additional permits if the price crosses a lower or upper threshold) • Has features of a tax and a cap-and-trade system

23. Tips for PS #4 • Do research and cite your sources! • (but keep it simple, you only have 3 pages) • Some topics to address: (Jack)

24. Break for C-Learn • http://forio.com/simulation/climate-development/

25. Backup

26. Clean Development Mechanism • Annex I countries can buy an Emission Reduction Credit from projects in developing countries (Jack)

27. Clean Development Mechanism • 2 goals of CDM: • sustainable development • low-cost compliance • Project must be approved by CDM executive board and verified by an auditor • Credits can be traded like AAUs or emission allowances (Jack)

28. (Jack)

29. (Jack)