240 likes | 398 Views
14th Annual Conference of the International Society of Exposure Analysis, Philadelphia , PA. Paper No. W2A-04 October 21, 2004. Continuous Measurements of Indoor-Outdoor Particulate PAH Concentrations in 7 Homes with Application to the Indoor Mass-Balance Model and Prediction Error.
E N D
14th Annual Conference of the International Society of Exposure Analysis, Philadelphia , PA Paper No. W2A-04 October 21, 2004 Continuous Measurements of Indoor-Outdoor Particulate PAH Concentrations in 7 Homes with Application to the Indoor Mass-Balance Model and Prediction Error
AUTHORS Paul Switzer Don Rozenberg Wayne Ott Neil Klepeis Department of Statistics Stanford University CONTRIBUTORS Mary Rozenberg Pamela Shreeve Laure Yadon George Angus Karen Johnson Lee Langan Peggy McClure
Indoor-Outdoor Model • Derived from Mass-Balance Equation • Theoretical Basis, Exact • Equally-Spaced Time Steps • Outdoor Concentrations as Input • Only Two Parameters Required • Predicted Indoor Concentration Compared with Measured Indoor Concentration
Modeling Approach(Piecewise-Constant Inputs and Piecewise-Exponential Outputs)
Persistence Parameter for Different Combinations of a and k for 1-min Time Step
Indoor Persistence Parameter versus (a + k) for 1-min and 5-min Time Steps
METHOD • Measure Continuous Outdoor and Indoor Total Particulate PAH (< 1 m) • Combustion Sources, Little Humidity Effect • Occupied, Nonsmoking Homes • Find Optimum Values of , • Compare Predicted Indoor Concentration with Measured Indoor Concentration • For , , Calculate Ranges of a, k, and p
Table 1 aCentrally located test home; b1-min averages; cArea of a single level.
Outdoor and Indoor PPAH, New Year’s Day San Francisco House No. 2
Arbitrary Parameters Optimal Parameters
Error Surface for Indoor Model Prediction Versus Indoor Measurement at San Francisco House No. 2 ( 1-min step time for 3.5 days)
Error Surface for Data at Redwood City House1994 - 1995 (17.5 days, 5-min time step)
Indoor Predicted vs. Indoor Measuredat Redwood City House, 17-1/2 Days
MeasuredOutdoor, MeasuredIndoorPPAH Predicted Indoor,Measured Indoor PPAH
DISCUSSION • Predicting indoor particle concentrations of • ambient origin using the mass balance model • requires only two parameters, and . • Using three parameters a, k, and p in the indoor • mass balance model is algebraically redundant.
CONCLUSIONS • Continuous Indoor-Outdoor PPAH Measurements in 7 Occupied Homes • Field Study Covered 10 Years • Indoor Model-Predicted Agreed Well with Indoor Measured at All Homes • Fireplaces and Wood Burning were the Major Sources of Ambient Particulate PAH • Motor Vehicles were a Minor Source • Indoor Model with 3 Parameters (a, k, and p) is Over-specified