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Mariner Supply for A Sustainable Maritime Transportation System Shashi N. Kumar , Ph.D., Master Mariner Chief Academic Officer, USMMA Fulbright Senior Specialist Fellow Emeritus Professor of International Business & Logistics.

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  1. Mariner Supply for A Sustainable Maritime Transportation SystemShashi N. Kumar, Ph.D., Master MarinerChief Academic Officer, USMMAFulbright Senior Specialist FellowEmeritus Professor of International Business & Logistics Disclaimer: Views expressed in this presentation are the speaker’s own; they do not represent the views of the United States, the U.S. DOT or the Maritime Administration.

  2. Outline Introduction The Mariner Lineage Mariner Data LeadingMariner Supplier Nations Recruitment & Retention Issues Quality of Life Issues Outlook/Summary

  3. Introduction TikkunOlam • Leave the world a better place than it was when one came in Mankind’s development must meet the needs of the present and future generations • Secretary General Koji Sekimizu (2013) Supply of appropriately educated and trainedmariners is essential to maintain a sustainable maritime transportation system

  4. Introduction • I must down to the seas again, to the lonely sea and the sky, • And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by • Source: Sea-Fever by John Masefield • Is shipping an industry past its prime? • Command of the sea as the means to an end • Sir Walter Raleigh • Admiral Mahan The future is not what it used to be! • (Paul Valery, French poet, philosopher & essayist) • And so also the present --- • A new era of maritime realism • The “invisible” nature of maritime presence in contemporary global supply chains • Victim of one’s own success? • Impact on mariner supply

  5. The Mariner Lineage The uniqueness of mariners • There are three sorts of people; those who are alive, those who are dead, and those who are at sea. Anacharsis, 6th Century BC • What’s so special? • Behave in a seaman-line manner • Mental and physical ability to face the unknown • Good leader with sound judgment • Global citizens

  6. The Mariner Lineage 21st Century Mariner Skill-sets • Traditional mariner skills • Tremendous self-discipline • Tech savvy and multi-skilled • Quick decision maker • Lead effectively in a fast-paced work environment • Competent and self-confident • Strong ethics and integrity • Superior organizational skills • Respectable cross-cultural literacy • Multilingual communicator, and a diplomat

  7. Mariners: Do we have a count? Data, or the lack thereof • BIMCO/ISF Manpower Studies • Reliability limitations of a 5 year forecast • The 2005 Manpower Study • Shortage of 10,000 officers in 2005, worsening to 27,000 by 2015 • 2008 Nippon Foundation Study • Global shortage of 32,153 officers by 2020 • 2009 Drewry/Precious Associates Survey • Shortage of 33,000 officers in 2009, increasing to 42,700 by 2013 • 2010 McKinsey Report • Demand for officers escalating 20% from 2010 to 2015

  8. Mariners: Do we have a count? 2010 BIMCO/ISF Manpower Report • Balanced market for ratings (747,000) • Officer shortage of 2% in 2010 Demand = 637,000 Supply = 624,00 Key variables • The current age distribution of licensed officers • Cadet entry rate prior to attaining their 1st certificate of competency/license • Cadet attrition rates prior to attaining their 1st certificate of competency/license • Officer attrition rate • Officer retirement age

  9. Mariners: Do we have a count? Officer shortage will rise to 5% by 2015 and then decline under ceteris paribus conditions • Fleet growth is the most sensitive variable • 3.2% fleet growth will cause 11% officer deficit by 2015 • The lackluster global economy and anemic shipping markets have been helpful Recruitment and retention are both key to supply sustainability • 26% decline in British officers, and 2/3rd are over 40 years old

  10. World Regional Mariner Supply (percent)

  11. Officers: Top Twelve Supplier Nations

  12. Ratings: Top Twelve Supplier Nations

  13. The U.S. Mariner Labor Market • Far superior supply of officers compared to other traditional maritime countries • Market demand for licensed officers remain strong, especially for engineering officers • Officer supply dominated by the federal academy and six state maritime academies, supplemented by other maritime education and training service providers • Increasing number of maritime high schools • Supply of ratings remain very robust

  14. U.S. Maritime Academy Graduates

  15. Annual Increase in Officer Supply (percent) Two period moving average

  16. Placement of USMMA Graduates

  17. Placement of USMMA Graduates

  18. Impediments to Mariner Supply Maritime Education & Training: Lack of appeal Inadequate math and science skills Sub-standard educators Insufficient training billets Inadequate/improper facilities Commercial exploitation Privatization abuses Super-specialization costs Added costs of new regulations

  19. Impediments: Maritime Criminalization Innocent until proven guilty? Prestige, Hebei Spirit, Stolt Valor, Ocean Centurion Being the Master of a ship is an important determinant of the probability of facing criminal charges, and of being convicted (Source: SRI Criminal Survey, 2013) Among those who faced criminal charges, 90% did not have legal representation 91% were not provided interpretation services 89% did not have their legal rights explained to them Four out of every five mariners who had faced criminal charges and answered the question, felt they were intimidated or threatened (Source: SRI Criminal Survey, 2013)

  20. Impediments: Tarnished Ethos Quality of life issues Commercial pressures Fleeting allegiances Bureaucracy Insufficient rest periods Project Horizon, A Wake-Up Call Shore leave restrictions Irrational visa requirements Liners vs. tramp ships Bullying on board ships Nautilus Survey Bring in the digital era Provide free access to internet communications Faststream survey of deck officers One in every two would seek a different career!

  21. Outlook/Summary Long-term strategic recruitment plan at the industry-level Public-Private Partnerships Transparent data availability Retaining trained mariners is equally important for sustainable mariner supply MLC on steroids The mariner element is unavoidable in any maritime transportation system Globally accepted policy framework that provides for fair treatment of merchant mariners, ashore and afloat

  22. I must down to the seas again,To the lonely sea and sky,And all I ask is a tall shipAnd a star to steer her by….. -John Masefield (Sea Fever) • Thank you • ShashiKumar, Ph.D., Master MarinerFulbright Senior Specialist Fellow • Emeritus Professor of IBL

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