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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings. Performed by USCA Research Methods class Professor Bob Botsch , Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant. Gimme Shelter! I built that! Beech Island Community Center. Methodology. N = 753 Sample design:

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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

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  1. The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll:Overview of Key Findings Performed by USCA Research Methods class Professor Bob Botsch, Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant

  2. Gimme Shelter! I built that! Beech Island Community Center

  3. Methodology • N = 753 • Sample design: • 10 representative precincts • Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size • Systematic sampling • Two time clusters • Response rate: 70% • Sample error: +/- 4% • Successfully matched presidential vote • Romney: actual 63%; sample 60% • Obama: actual 36%; sample 37%

  4. 2012 Vote by Party: an exercise in party loyalty—GOP advantage: 51%/33%

  5. Distant Hints of Change: Groups of Voters Trending Toward Democrats

  6. How These Groups are Different

  7. Tea Party Suppt: Drop from 2010 (43% to 30%) & Generally to the Far Right

  8. Continued-1

  9. Continued-2

  10. Continued-3

  11. Continued-4

  12. Obama Independent Vote Depressed by White Independents—Ethnicity!

  13. “Makers and Takers” as Seen Through Partisan Lenses

  14. Seeing People as “Takers” Increases Romney Vote

  15. Ethnic Antipathy Score (Blacks too much power; Muslim; Conf Flag—4 pt scale) Predicts Vote Among Whites

  16. Dramatic Increase in White Voter Ethnic-Antipathy Scores since 2008

  17. The Gender/Marriage Gaps in Aiken County and the Nation

  18. Conclusions • County heavily GOP • Some warning signs for the future • Young/single/in-migrants less GOP • More socially moderate • Tea Party support decline from 2010 (-13 % points) • Tea Party Republicans quite different across range of issues/attitudes/identities • indepndts closer to Dem’s—should vote more Dem (?) • Obama hurt by white independent voters • Republicans more likely to see people as lazy and Democrats to see people as wanting to work • Ethnic antipathy a major factor—as important as party (and intertwined with party) • Increasing racial polarization—dramatic increases in ethnic antipathy since 2008 • Gender Gap small in Aiken Co, but Marriage Gap huge

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