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MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues

MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues. DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop 25 July 2006. Plan for the workshop. Updates on MTEF projections, Joint Program doc, Paris survey Suggested issues for joint program Roundtable : DP presentations on projections

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MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues

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  1. MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop 25 July 2006

  2. Plan for the workshop • Updates on • MTEF projections, • Joint Program doc, • Paris survey • Suggested issues for joint program • Roundtable : DP presentations on projections • Outputs (to be discussed with GOT, CSO) • Next steps for MTEF projections (a) for joint programming (b) for 07/08 budget cycle • Agreed issues/approach for programming within joint doc

  3. MTEF DP projections so far……. • 14 agencies + collective UN projections received so far • Analysis below based on data received 5pm yesterday • Analysis focussed on aggregate projection issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments) • Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion

  4. DPs Support (2006/07=100)

  5. Budget Support (2006/07=100)

  6. DPs Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

  7. Budget Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

  8. Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)

  9. Budget Support (% of GDP)

  10. Total External Financing, actaul + projections

  11. Total External Financing, actual + projections

  12. Issues for the joint program document : criteria • Adding value to individual agency plans (clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments) • Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc • Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements

  13. Preliminary suggestions • Looking at key aggregates • Aid absorption/scaling up • Alignment with MKUKUTA • Alignment with JAS • Evolution of budget support

  14. Aggregate financing • Profile of key aggregates : budget support, sector financing, total public, non state • Reliability : inclusion of commitments and plans. can projections be recommended by agencies and DPG overall as sound base for GOT planning? • Can the aggregates be made more reliable than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls,

  15. Aid absorption/scaling up • At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down ! • Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level

  16. Alignment with MKUKUTA • Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?) • Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc

  17. Alignment with JAS • Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles • MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue • Few DPs have responded on specific indicators but should be fairly easy on basis of projections

  18. Budget support in the MTEF • Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing) • Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure

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