Decisions, decisions….

1. Decisions, decisions….

2. Naturalistic Decision Making

3. How We Make Individual DecisionsWhy We Fail as Teams • How do individuals make decisions? • Do we look at possible alternatives, weigh cost:benefit of each, and then decide on a course of action? OR • Do we search our minds for a pattern that fits the situation, and apply the solution we remember?

4. It Depends….. • It is dictated by the situation and environment.

5. The Matrix

6. Who’s Cooking? Price Previous History Clean-up Taste Fast Attack Rescue Exposures Water supply Fire conditions What do we want to accomplish?

7. Engineer Consistent level of stress Comprehensive data set Computer modeling Static stressors Individual/ team focus Airline Pilot Hours of boredom, moments of sheer terror Limited data available Situational training Dynamic stressors Team/individual focus Which vocation is like Firefighting?

8. Top Gun

9. Fireground commanders render decisions in environments like airline pilots, ambulance paramedics, military commanders, critical care/ED nurses and physicians, nuclear power plant operators, and air traffic controllers. Environments in which the opportunities to evaluate alternatives is limited.

10. Conventional Deductive, logical thinking Analysis of probabilities Statistical methods In Natural Settings Intuition Mental simulation Metaphor Storytelling Sources of Power

11. Fireground commanders make decisions in natural settings And hence, employ naturalistic decision-making as their predominant, individual modus operandi

12. The Fireground Problem Environment • Unstructured, real-world problems • Complex-multiple signs and symptoms, often interacting without cause/effect relationships or interdependent (with cause/effect) • Dynamic • Almost always dangerous • Almost always distracting

13. The Naturalistic Decision Making Environment • Time pressure • High Stakes • Need for experienced decision-makers • Inadequate information • Ill-defined goals • Poorly defined procedures • Dynamic, contextual learning • Teamwork

14. Naturalistic Decision-Making • Recognition-primed (flour on the floor) • Singular, as opposed to comparative evaluation. Considering options and immediately selecting the first reasonable one, as opposed to seeking the best option. • Novices need to compare different options. Experienced personnel generate a single course of action

15. We are interested in: • Time pressure • High Stakes • Gaining experience as decision makers • Inadequate information • Unclear Goals • Poorly defined procedures • Cue Learning • Context • Dynamic conditions • Teamwork

16. Classical Decision Analysis Method • Identifies the set of options • Identifies the way of evaluating those options • Weights each evaluation dimension • Does the rating • Picks the option with the highest score

17. We don’t have to evaluate options... Let experience show you a model reaction to the situation. Even non-routine situations can be prototypes of past experiences that can be adapted quickly and successfully.

18. Hit the Brakes

19. ….but we do have to have a second means of egress! • Take in the whole picture, make your decision, act on it, then continually reevaluate the situation. • Develop a backup plan for use if the situation changes. • What can go wrong? The house is already on fire. • The next one can light off!!

20. CONSTRUCT PLAN B & C • When you feel like you have a handle on where you want it to go…remember, Murphy (not John) takes command of some fires and plans B & C are always necessary.

21. Making a decision error when the correct situation is comprehended vs. making a decision error when the situation is incorrectly comprehended SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

22. Intuition • Intuition depends on experience to recognize key patterns that indicate the dynamics of the situation. • You must also recognize missing key patterns that indicate a different situation. • ESP • Sixth Sense • (Basement fire/HMS Gloucester)

23. Mental Simulations • The ability to imagine people and objects consciously and to transform those people and objects through several transitions, finally picturing them in a different way than at the start.

24. Even though we don’t use the classical decision making model (comparing options against each other), we can quickly go through several options to find that option that is best suited to the situation. • Use mental simulations • (auto extrication)

25. Don’t let mental simulations skew the facts or ignore the situation. • Remember situational awareness

26. A Whale of a Problem

27. Mental Simulations: • Let us explain how events have moved from the past into the present • Let us project how the present will move into the future • Construct an action sequence in which one state of affairs is transformed into another • Because of memory limitations, people usually construct mental simulations using around three variables and six transitions

28. Mental Simulations: • It takes a fair amount of experience to construct a useful mental simulation • Can run into trouble when too complicated, or when time pressure, noise, etc. interfere • Can mislead when you argue away challenging evidence

29. Storytelling • Stories organize events into a meaningful framework • They serve as natural experiments, linking a network of causes to their effects • They are similar to mental simulations • Stories can be used to extract and communicate subtle aspects of expertise

30. Metaphors and Analogues • Different situations, but similar in some way that will help us place it perspective • Helps us see cause/effect relationships • Helps us see value of risk/benefit analysis

31. APOLLO 13 • A CASE STUDY IN PROBLEM SOLVING • There were about five instances of goal revision. The most dramatic was the shift in goals from trying to continue the mission while repairing the problem, to calling off the mission and concentrating on the astronauts safe return home. • Everyone must go home safely!!!

32. Naturalistic Decision Making The Bottom Line • People who repeatedly confront a particular task move in stages from the rank of novice, to that of expert. • Leaders who are rated as superior explain to subordinates in clear language what they see, and how they want to react to changing circumstances. • Subordinates’ input is then given due and STRONG consideration.

33. What are our assets? • Our minds and our memories • Our bodies • Limited diagnostic instrumentation • Limited time • Our collective minds

34. Use your team Learn to make decisions without technology

35. The Team (crew)A collective of Minds • A collection of minds is a limited resource • A collective of minds create increased problem-solving capability • How can we best manage our greatest resource….the crew?

36. The word “management” may not be the most appropriate, but the process of optimizing the collective of minds for the good of the order is called: CREW RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

37. THE BORG

38. How many times have you seen: • Competent, well-meaning officers • Knowledgeable and caring • Able to instantly trouble-shoot problems • FAIL during complex events??

39. It’s a Symphony • Many individuals play their instruments well • To play collectively, as a BAND, takes teamwork, coordination, communication, and leadership • Active listening by players and director to know when to play

40. Our Acceptance of Adverse Effects • % of Arlington Firefighters are injured every year. • 112 firefighters died last year across the nation • But… we’re good at funerals • If commercial air travel had even a 0.1% major accident rate, it would result in 2 airliner crashes every three days….

41. Everything is relative • A firefighter dies and the newspapers say it is tragic. • An airplane crashes and it is a disaster. • THEY ARE BOTH DISASTERS

42. Examples of Individual Success in the Fire Service • “Downstream” thinking: Commonly used by “experts” • Initial placement of truck companies, use of a RIC, aggressive exposure protection, plan B & C

43. Examples of Team Success • Multi-alarm fires • Mass-casualty Events • Hazardous Materials Incidents • Complex scene management • Natural Disasters • Man-made disasters

44. Crew Resource Management(CRM) • Development prompted by UAL DC-8 crash close to Portland in 1978 • 70% of airline accidents involve some degree of human error • Most human error is not isolated, but is a result of dysfunctional teamwork • CRM is grounded in social, cognitive, and organizational psychology

45. The most effective use of the collective of minds is grounded in Interpersonal Communication

46. The United Air Crash Lesson • Cockpit voice recorder excerpts…contributing factors: • Critical interruptions • Incomplete thoughts, not validated • Subtle intimidation (rank structure) • “Junior” crew member failure to verbalize concerns appropriately • Did not use the Team effectively

47. The Cast • FA (Flight Attendant) • McBroom- Pilot and One of United’s most senior, experienced captains • Frostie- (Mendenhall)Flight engineer • AC- Air traffic controller • Beebe-First Officer

48. 5:44 PM • FA- I’ll be honest with you, I’ve never had one of these before, my first you know… • McBroom- All right, what we’ll do is have Frostie, oh about a couple of minutes before touchdown signal for brace position… • Failure-didn’t acknowledge the attendant’s anxiety

49. 5:50 PM • McBroom-Give us a current card on the weight figure about another 15 minutes… • Mendenhall- Fifteen minutes? • McBroom-yeah, give us three or four hundred pounds on top of zero fuel weight • Mendenhall-Not enough…. • Beebe-Fifteen minutes is gonna really run us low on fuel here… • AC-United 173 heavy, left turn heading 0-5-0...

50. 5:50 PM • Beebe-OK, left zero-five-zero • AC- United 173 heavy, clear of first traffic, now there’s one at… • Failure #1 • Failure #2 • Failure #3