1 / 55

Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002

Comprehensive analysis of GDP growth, oil prices, exchange rates, consumer prices, unemployment, and more in various economies globally in 2002. Source: Multiple.

leolal
Download Presentation

Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Charts for Inflation Report 1/2002

  2. Chart 1.1 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter (annual rate) Source:EcoWin

  3. Chart 1.2 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US and prices for industrials (USD). Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100 Prices for industrials Long rates Wilshire 5000 Sources:Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist and Wilshire Associates

  4. Chart 1.3 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel Sources:International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank

  5. Chart 1.4 Effective NOK exchange rates. Import-weighted exchange rate and trade-weighted exchange rate Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100) Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100) Source:Norges Bank

  6. Chart 1.5 Traditional merchandise exports. Volume and price. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year Volume Price Source:Statistics Norway

  7. Chart 1.6 Consumer confidence indicator (level). Estimated trend. Combined confidence indicator Confidence in own financial situation Confidence in country's economy Sources:Norsk Gallup Institutt AS and Norges Bank

  8. Chart 1.7 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume 2001 2000 1999 Source:Statistics Norway

  9. Chart 1.8 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent C3 mainland Norway C2 Credit to households Source:Norges Bank

  10. Chart 1.9 Number unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons in labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted1) Registered unemployed and labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed 1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources:Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  11. Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons Whole country Western Norway Southern Norway Central and northern Norway Eastern Norway Source:Directorate of Labour

  12. Chart 1.11 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway 2) Norges Bank's estimates Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Chart 1.12 Consumer prices by delivery sector. 12-month rise. Per cent Transport services Services with wages as a dominant price factor House rent CPI Source:Statistics Norway

  14. Chart 1.13 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes. Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer goods. 12-month rise. Per cent Imported consumer goods Cars Clothing and footwear Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Chart 1.14 Consumer prices (CPI).Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent CPI CPI-AT1) CPI-ATE1) CPI-AT:CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE:CPI adj. for tax changes and ex energy products 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Chart 1.15 Consumer prices.Energy-related products1).12-month rise.Per cent Electricity Fuel and lubricants 1) Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI.Fuel and lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  17. Private consumption Net export Private investment Inventories Gov’t consumption and investment GDP Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised.Contribution to growth in volume.Seasonally adjusted. Per cent Sources:Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank

  18. Chart 2.2 Private saving and household net wealth in the US as a percentage of disposable income Net wealth (right-hand scale) Saving ratio (left-hand scale) Sources:Datastream, EcoWin, the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis

  19. Chart 2.3 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area US (left-hand scale) Euro area (right-hand scale) Sources:EcoWin, the European Commission and The Conference Board

  20. Chart 2.4 Business sentiment indicators in the US and the euro area Euro area (right-hand scale) US (left-hand scale) Sources:EcoWin, ISM and the European Commission

  21. Chart 2.5 Industrial output. Seasonally adjusted indices, January 1997=0 US Euro area Sweden Norway Sources:EcoWin and Statistics Norway

  22. Chart 2.6 Unfilled orders in the technology industry.Value indices, 1995=100 Mechanical Electronic and optical Metals Source:Statistics Norway

  23. Chart 2.7 Gross investment in petroleum activities. In billions of NOK. Constant 1997 prices Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  24. Chart 2.8 Structural non-oil budget balance1) 1) The budget balance is the change on the previous year, expressed as a percentage of trend mainland GDP. Sources:National Budget and Supplementary Proposition 2002, Ministry of Finance

  25. Chart 2.9 Household saving and net financial wealth. Percentage of disposable income Saving ratio (left-hand scale) Wealth ratio (right-hand scale) Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  26. Chart 2.10 Household loan debt as a percentage of disposable income and household interest expense after tax as a percentage of cash income Interest burden (right-hand scale) Loan debt (left-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank

  27. Chart 2.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 01.01.00-21.02.02. Indices, 3 January 2000 = 100 Financial Manufacturing IT All-share index Source:EcoWin

  28. Chart 2.12 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.In 1000s of people employed. Source:Statistics Norway

  29. Chart 2.13 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1990=100 Local currency Common currency Sources:Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

  30. Chart 2.14 Change in number employed from previous year (in thousands) and LFS unemployment rate Employed (right-hand scale) Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  31. Chart 2.15 Change in labour force from previous year, and labour force as a percentage of population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate) Labour force participation (per cent, left-hand scale) Change in LFS labour force (thousands, right-hand scale) Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  32. Chart 3.1 Rise in labour costs1) and unemployment rate. Per cent Registered unemployment and persons on labour market programmes Rise in labour costs 1) Hourly labour costs in mainland Norway including the costs of additional vacation days.For 2001 we have excluded extraordinary pension payments to KLP (the municipal sector pension fund) in local government Sources:Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  33. Chart 3.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage share1) and return on total assets2) Return on total assets (left-hand scale) Wage share (right-hand scale) 1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added 2) Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share of total assets.Excluding oil companies Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  34. Chart 3.3 Producer and consumer prices for Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent Producer prices Consumer prices Sources:EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank

  35. Chart 3.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE).Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  36. Chart 3.5 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent CPI CPI-ATE Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  37. Chart 3.6 Expectations concerning short-term money market rates1).Per cent Forward rates 21 February Forward rates 25 October 1) 3-month money market rates up to 21 February.Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 21 February. Source:Norges Bank

  38. Chart 3.7 Forward rate differential against Germany. Percentage points 21 February 25 October Source:Norges Bank

  39. Chart 3.8 Household saving as a percentage of disposable income and the current account balance1) as a percentage of GDP in the US Household saving ratio Current account 1) OECD estimates for 2001 Sources:OECD and Bureau of Economic Analysis

  40. Chart 3.9 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel IR 1/2002 Futures prices 20 February Sources:International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank

  41. 30% 50% 70% 90% Chart 3.10 Consumer price inflation1).Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent 2.5 2.5 1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation. Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  42. Chart 3.11 Evaluation of the risks to the inflation projection for the first quarter of 2004 2½ 50% 50% Probability density Source:Norges Bank

  43. To annex:

  44. Overnight rate Assumption Deposit rate 3-month money market rate Source:Norges Bank

  45. Trade-weighted exchange rate (1990=100) IR 1/02: 101.8 IR 1/02: 94.4 Import-weighted exchange rate (Week 1 1995=100) Source:Norges Bank

  46. The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3).12-month rise.Per cent C3 mainland Norway C2 Credit to households Source:Norges Bank

  47. Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE).12-month rise.Per cent CPI CPI-ATE Source:Norges Bank

  48. 3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan US Euro area Japan Sources:EcoWin and Norges Bank

  49. Box: Evaluation of Norges Bank's projections for 2000

  50. Projection for 2000 published in 1998 Projection for 2000 publ. in 1999 Actual figure 2000 Chart 1 Projections for some key variables for 2000 published at various times. Annual increase. Per cent Mainland demand MainlandGDP Unemploy-ment1) Wage growth2) Price inflation 1) Level 2) Including the costs of additional vacation days Sources:Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

More Related