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Data Driven Policing: Homicide Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London

Data Driven Policing: Homicide Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London. Detective Superintendent Mark Jackson & Barak Ariel, PhD. All Homicide Offences (1st Apr 00 to 31st Mar 10). Research Questions?. Is Homicide a random event in time? Is Homicide a random event in space?

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Data Driven Policing: Homicide Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London

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  1. Data Driven Policing:Homicide Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London Detective Superintendent Mark Jackson & Barak Ariel, PhD

  2. All Homicide Offences (1st Apr 00 to 31st Mar 10)

  3. Research Questions? • Is Homicide a random event in time? • Is Homicide a random event in space? • What are the possible links between homicide locations, offenders, victims and other factors, at the micro-place level?

  4. Place-Based Criminology The stability of crime trends at places over time suggests a “strong coupling” of crime to place David Weisburd, Cody W. Telep, Anthony A. Braga (2010). The Importance of Place in Policing: Empirical Evidence and Policy Recommendations. Bra Publications

  5. (some of the) Research Evidence: • 74% of serious gun crime assault was committed in 5% of street and intersections (Braga et al 2010) • 5% of addresses/intersections produce 100% of the calls for predatory crimes, i.e. robbery (Sherman et al 1989) • 3.5% of addresses account for 50% of crime calls (Sherman et al 1987)

  6. London Metropolitan Police Data: • 10 year period from (1.4.2000 - 31.3.2010) within the Metropolitan Police area of London • Homicide Locations = 1,664 (98.2% geo-coded) • Victims Locations = 1,714 (87.3% geo-coded) • Offenders Location = 2,382 (84.3% geo-coded) • Socioeconomic Deprivation Measures for 4,760 LSOAs

  7. Temporal Patterns

  8. London Homicides (2000-2010) by Year (n=1,714)

  9. London Homicides (2000-2010) by Month (n=1,664)

  10. London Homicides (2000-2010) by Day of Week (n=1,664)

  11. London Homicides (2000-2010) by Hour of Day (n=1,664)

  12. Spatial Patterns

  13. Homicide Offence locations by Borough

  14. Homicide Offence locations by Ward

  15. Homicide Offence locations by LSOA

  16. Or put it another way

  17. Zero Homicides (1st Apr 00 to 31st Mar 10)

  18. Homicide Offence locations in Westminster Wards West End St James

  19. All Domestic Violence Homicides (1.4.00 to 31.3.10)

  20. All Gun-Related Homicides (1.4.2000 to 31.3.2010)

  21. All Knife-Related Homicides (1.4.2000 to 31.3.2010)

  22. Connecting Homicide Places to Peopleat LSOA level

  23. Homicide Offenders • 72% of London's LSOAs (n=3,414) did not have a resident accused of homicide Homicide Victims • 75.5% (n=3,597) of LSOAs did not have a resident victim of homicide

  24. Concentrations of Homicide • 6% of LSOAs contributed 42% of homicides over 10 year period

  25. Concentrations of Offenders • 9% of LSOAs contributed 53% of homicide offenders over 10 year period

  26. Concentrations of Victims • 5% of LSOAs contributed 35% of homicide victims over 10 year period

  27. Deprivation Levels at LSOA

  28. Summary 1 • There are predictable “hot times” of homicide • The stability of homicide trends at places over time suggests a “strong coupling” of: • Homicides to place (6%  42%) • Homicide offenders to place (9%  53%) • Homicide victims to place (5%  35%)

  29. Summary 2 • 2% of homicide offenders kill within their LSOA • 60% of victims are killed within their LSOA • Medium-size relationship between overall crime patterns & deprivation levels with: • Homicide LSOA (ES = 0.5) • Homicide victims LSOA (ES = 0.5) • Small but negative relationship between overall crime patterns & deprivation levels with: Homicide offenders (ES = -0.14)

  30. Data Driven Policing:Homicide Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London Detective Superintendent Mark Jackson & Barak Ariel, PhD

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