Understanding Scientific Thinking: Principles & Peer Review

1. THE SCIENTIFIC CONTEXT Dr. Sam Miller Weather & Climate – MTDI 1200OL Plymouth State University 1

2. Scientific Thinking

3. What does it mean to think scientifically?

4. What does it mean to think scientifically? Scientific thinking is quantitative reasoning, which is a form of critical thinking.

5. What does it mean to think scientifically? Scientific thinking is quantitative reasoning, which is a form of critical thinking. Means: • How? • How much? • When? • Where? Does not mean: • Why?

6. What does it mean to think scientifically? Scientific thinking is quantitative reasoning, which is a form of critical thinking. Means: • Willing to be skeptical about claims • Demanding evidence • “Logical” is not the same thing as “true” Does not mean: • Cynical • Decision to stick to beliefs regardless of overwhelming evidence contradicting them

7. Sound science requires that scientists in a given field evaluate each other’s work. Peer review is a mechanism to wring out error and keep ourselves honest. We build on each other’s work and don’t want to start from mistaken information. We trust Newton’s F = ma and other theories because they have been so rigorously tested.

8. Sound science requires that scientists in a given field evaluate each other’s work. Peer review is a mechanism to wring out error and keep ourselves honest. We build on each other’s work and don’t want to start from mistaken information. We trust Newton’s F = ma and other theories because they have been so rigorously tested.

9. Sound science requires that scientists in a given field evaluate each other’s work. Peer review is a mechanism to wring out error and keep ourselves honest. We build on each other’s work and don’t want to start from mistaken information. We trust Newton’s F = ma and other theories because they have been so rigorously tested.

10. Sound science requires that scientists in a given field evaluate each other’s work. Peer review is a mechanism to wring out error and keep ourselves honest. We build on each other’s work and don’t want to start from mistaken information. We trust Newton’s F = ma and other theories because they have been so rigorously tested.

11. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis?

12. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis? Is it theoretically sound?

13. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis? • Is it theoretically sound? • Does it make any testable predictions?

14. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis? • Is it theoretically sound? • Does it make any testable predictions? • Reproducible measurements (no position of privilege)?

15. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis? • Is it theoretically sound? • Does it make any testable predictions? • Reproducible measurements (no position of privilege)? • Do the observations support the hypothesis?

16. How do you evaluate a scientific hypothesis? • Is it theoretically sound? • Does it make any testable predictions? • Reproducible measurements (no position of privilege)? • Do the observations support the hypothesis? • Does the resulting theory make correct predictions?

17. Examples of unscientific thinking:

18. Examples of unscientific thinking: “It is true because I believe it.”

19. Examples of unscientific thinking: “It is true because I believe it.” “It is true because we believe it.”

20. Examples of unscientific thinking: • “It is true because I believe it.” • “It is true because we believe it.” • “It is true because I want to believe it.”

21. Examples of unscientific thinking: • “It is true because I believe it.” • “It is true because we believe it.” • “It is true because I want to believe it.” • “It is true because I have always believed it.”

22. Examples of unscientific thinking: • “It is true because I believe it.” • “It is true because we believe it.” • “It is true because I want to believe it.” • “It is true because I have always believed it.” • “It is true because it is in my best interests to believe it.”

23. Examples of unscientific thinking: • “It is true because I believe it.” • “It is true because we believe it.” • “It is true because I want to believe it.” • “It is true because I have always believed it.” • “It is true because it is in my best interests to believe it.” • “It is true because someone in authority wants me to believe it.”

24. Managing Numbers

25. To manage scales that may range over many orders of magnitude, we use: Scientific Notation Exponentials Powers of Ten

30. 100 x Larger 100 x Smaller

31. 1000 x Larger 1000 x Smaller

32. 1,000,000 x Larger 1,000,000 x Smaller

33. Short Video Powers of Ten

34. Earth in Context

35. Solar System Objects SUN JUPITER EARTH DIAMETER ~ 800,000 MILES [ 100 Earth diameters ] ~ 80,000 [ 10 Earth diameters ] ~ 8,000

36. Solar System Objects SOLAR MASS 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Kg 2 x 1030 Kg [ ~ 330,000 Earth masses ] JOVIAN MASS 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Kg 2 x 1027 Kg [ ~ 330 Earth masses ] TERRESTRIAL MASS 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Kg 6 x 1024 Kg

37. Earth – Moon System EARTH MOON DISTANCE ~ 250,000 MILES [ About 30 Earth diameters ]

38. Earth – Moon System EARTH’S MOON Diameter: 2,200 Miles [ ~1/4 Earth diameter ] Mass: 7 x 1022 Kg [ ~ 1/100th Earth mass ] Composition: Earth continental rock EARTH MOON

39. Earth – Sun System (Disks and distances between them are not on the same scale) SUN EARTH DISTANCE ~ 95,000,000 MILES [ About 12,000 Earth diameters ]

40. Solar System (graphic: www.nineplanets.org)

41. Solar System INNER PLANETS

42. Solar System INNER PLANETS MERCURY VENUS MARS EARTH (graphic: www.nineplanets.org)

43. Solar System OUTER PLANETS

44. Solar System OUTER PLANETS JUPITER

45. Solar System OUTER PLANETS SATURN

46. Solar System OUTER PLANETS URANUS

47. Solar System OUTER PLANETS NEPTUNE

48. Solar System DIAMETER ~ 8,000,000,000 MILES [ About 1 million Earth diameters ]

49. Solar System Age of the Solar System: About 5 billion years

50. Short Video The Age of Earth (from The Creation of The Universe)