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Climate index calculation

Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate in d e x calculation Lakatos , M., Szentimey T. Bihari , Z., Szalai , S. Climate index calculation.

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Climate index calculation

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  1. Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate index calculationLakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z.,Szalai, S. Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  2. Climate index calculation 1998 CCL (Comission for Climatology of WMO) / CLIVAR (Research programme on CLImate VARiability and predictability) ECA&D (European Climate Assessment and Dataset) NKFP-3A/082/2004 „Regional Climate Modeling” 2005 – 2007(National Office for Research and Technology) CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assesment) WP4: extreme index calculation on homogenized, gridded observations and on RCM’s data Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  3. Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  4. What we have done? • Original, complemented, quality controlled and homogenized • temperature indices series and theirs trends for 15 stations • and • precipitation indices series for 58 stations • 1901-2007, annual and seasonal scale • and • for ~10 km gridded data Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  5. MASH Climate indices calculations require at least daily resolution of homogeneous time series. Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization; Szentimrey Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  6. The new version MASHv3.02 (extended also for daily precipitation data) • The algorithm for daily data homogenization is as follows: • Monthly values from daily data. • MASH homogenization procedure for monthly series, estimation of monthly inhomogeneities. • On the basis of estimated monthly inhomogeneities, continuous (smooth) estimation for daily inhomogeneities. • Homogenization of daily data. • Quality control for homogenized daily data. • Missing daily data complementing. • Monthly values from homogenized, controlled and complemented daily data. • Test of homogeneity for the new monthly series by MASH homogenization procedure. Repeating steps if it is necessary. Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  7. Verification of homogenization VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (MINIMUM) TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH) Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73 Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 5 2024.83 12 1232.54 13 843.11 10 735.77 3 644.61 15 631.40 6 617.90 1 579.59 2 496.33 7 438.06 8 390.13 11 384.80 4 317.23 14 309.52 9 99.56 AVERAGE:649.69 Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 14 36.56 2 35.15 13 31.27 4 30.55 1 30.02 8 29.43 9 28.10 5 27.74 3 24.01 6 23.30 7 22.87 10 22.37 12 22.09 15 21.68 11 17.68 AVERAGE: 26.85 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  8. Verification of homogenization VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (MAXIMUM) TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH) Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73 Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 12 1106.40 6 1031.97 5 488.03 8 360.65 13 314.53 7 311.95 11 284.94 10 206.09 1 158.15 14 145.63 4 135.56 2 133.73 15 130.89 9 79.72 3 46.26 AVERAGE:328.97 Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 1 60.91 7 49.90 5 44.96 2 44.82 14 34.28 8 32.99 6 31.73 9 28.31 11 25.28 10 22.59 3 21.89 13 21.44 15 21.21 4 20.36 12 19.39 AVERAGE: 32.00 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  9. Verification of homogenization VERIFICATION OF HOMOGENIZATION (PRECIPITATION) TEST STATISTICS for ANNUAL SERIES (OUTPUT of MASH) Critical value (significance level 0.05): 21.73 Test Statistics Before Homogenization(TSB) Station TSB Station TSB Station TSB 13 175.11 10 170.34 27 137.97 17 110.87 3 81.79 20 80.32 4 76.88 18 60.28 1 59.43 ……………… 56 17.15 36 15.07 24 11.06 AVERAGE: 43.10 Test Statistics After Homogenization(TSA) Station TSA Station TSA Station TSA 2 66.34 18 59.33 37 54.23 58 51.60 20 51.54 51 48.02 1 44.91 44 43.98 52 43.85 ………………… 8 15.27 56 14.62 36 12.82 AVERAGE: 29.13 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  10. Quality control Minimum temperature (1901-2007) Result of automatic Quality Control by MASH Total number of errors: 2058 Maximal positive error: 14.03 Minimal negative error: -10.55 Example: Túrkeve(55706), 18-19 February 1907 48101 47100 46401 58104 55706 64704 44121 1907 217 -9.0 -13.0 -16.4 -10.8 -15.0 -17.9 -10.50 1907 218 -6.0 -5.1 -10.0 -3.9 5.0 -7.2 -5.50 1907 219 -1.5 -2.5 -6.4 -4.6 10.6 -13.2 -0.60 1907 220 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -0.40 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  11. Quality control Maximum temperature (1901-2007) Result of automatic Quality Control By MASH Total number of errors: 3319 Maximal positive error: 12.35 Minimal negative error: -20.91 Example: Kecskemét(46401), 26-31 May 1941 48101 47100 46401 58104 55706 64704 44121 1941 525 22.4 24.6 26.0 24.6 24.8 24.2 25.3 1941 526 23.9 23.8 2.4 24.0 24.0 23.8 25.6 1941 527 24.2 24.2 2.4 25.6 23.3 23.8 22.8 1941 528 26.9 26.6 2.7 28.2 26.7 25.4 27.8 1941 529 25.8 24.0 2.4 27.0 26.5 24.6 24.2 1941 530 24.7 24.6 2.5 25.5 24.0 22.4 23.8 1941 531 25.0 25.2 2.7 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.9 1941 6 1 22.1 21.5 21.0 19.7 17.6 18.8 22.8 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  12. Quality control Precipitation(1901-2007) Result of automatic Quality Control by MASH Total number of errors: 854 Maximal positive error: 84.0 Minimal negative error: -33.4 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  13. Base period: 1961-1990 Base period: 1961-1990 original homogenized TN10p original homogenized TN90p Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  14. The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series TN10p TN10p TN10p TN90p TN90p TN90p Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  15. no sign. Extreme climate index calculations on gridded (interpolated) daily data TN10p, 1961-2007 Gridding of homogenized daily data series was carried out by method MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey T., Bihari Z.) Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  16. original homogenized TX10p original homogenized TX90p Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  17. The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series TX10p TX10p TX10p TX90p TX90p TX90p Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  18. Trends on gridded data Tx10p, 1961-2007 Tx90p, 1961-2007 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  19. HWDI original homogenized 1961-2007 Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  20. R95pTOT Precipitation Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  21. R95pTOT 1961-2007 Meteorológiai szélsőségek és várható alakulásuk a Kárpát-medencében, 2008. május 20.

  22. p=0.9 significancelevel 1961-2007 Meteorológiai szélsőségek és várható alakulásuk a Kárpát-medencében, 2008. május 20.

  23. p=0.8 significancelevel R95pTOT, 1961-2007 Meteorológiai szélsőségek és várható alakulásuk a Kárpát-medencében, 2008. május 20. 23

  24. The fitted linear trends to original and homogenized series Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  25. Conclusion Extreme climate indices calculations for detection of climate change require good quality, homogeneous time series In many cases the characteristics of the estimated linear trends are unambiguously unlike on the original and homogenized time series Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME) and 6th Seminar for Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases, 26-30 May 2008

  26. Thank you for your attention!

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