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Additional Enrollment Information by Region

Additional Enrollment Information by Region. SBCTC Mission Study Task Force July 16, 2009. Overview. Enrollment policy: Maintain current level of service while bringing up level of service for underserved populations Population driven enrollments (maintaining current level)

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Additional Enrollment Information by Region

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  1. Additional Enrollment Information by Region SBCTC Mission Study Task Force July 16, 2009

  2. Overview • Enrollment policy: Maintain current level of service while bringing up level of service for underserved populations • Population driven enrollments (maintaining current level) • OFM population growth forecast varies by region • Apply current participation rates to OFM population forecast = enrollments level that maintains current level of service • Bringing up service to underserved populations • Underserved regions • Race/ethnic • ABE/GED rates lag “college-level” rates • Also need to increase students achievement to meet employer and transfer demand

  3. Population Growth Will Be Modest Compared to the Past – Between 0.4% to 1.2% a Year Based on OFM 2008 Forecast

  4. Population Growth Analysis Based on Six Sub-Populations Each sub-population has a unique population as a divisor to establish the Participation Rate & Service Levels (see slide 14 for details). For example ABE/GED students by age group are compared to adults by age group with less than HS education (American Community Survey (ACS), 2007). The American Community Survey is a new Census Bureau survey providing Census like data for regions within the state.

  5. Results by Region for Maintaining Current Level of Service: All Regions Grow More Than 5,000 Students

  6. Underserved Populations • SW & Central/East regions for “college-level” • Pierce, Spokane, Central/East for ESL • ABE/GED rates lag “college-level” rates • Hispanics lag other groups in all regions • Native Americans lag other groups in 6 regions • African Americans lag other groups in King County

  7. At the “college-level” Several Regions Have Lower Participation Rates • Rates are significantly lower in SW and Central/East regions • State average – 11.2%

  8. In ESL Several Regions Have Lower Participation Rates • Rates are significantly lower in Pierce, Spokane and Central/East regions • State average – 13.4%

  9. In Most Regions ABE/GED Participation Rates Lag “college-level” Rates

  10. Hispanics Participate at Lower Rates Across the State, Native American & African American Rates are Low in Some Regions

  11. Implications of Maintaining Level of Service & Bringing Up Underserved • Maintain service levels as population grows • 53,400 more students by 2030 - more than 5,000 in each region (includes Running Start) • 2,800 additional students per year • 1,100 additional FTES per year • Raising participation in SW & Central/East regions • 10,900 more students by 2030, including 4,000 more Hispanic students • 500 more students a year, 300 FTES more per year • Basic Skills - 8,100 more students by 2030 • Raise ABE/GED rate across the state • Bring up regions with lower ESL rates to average level • 8,100 more students by 2030 • 500 more students a year, 200 more FTE per year • Level of service to Hispanics would improve, but still be lower than average

  12. More Output Needed to Meet Workforce and Transfer Demand • Achieve with same students, but more success for students – Student Achievement Initiative • More reaching the tipping point and beyond – could produce 4,000 more transfers and prepared for work • Basic Skills transitions – 7,000 more students making a transition, mostly Hispanic • Increase transition rate to 25% • Hispanic participation rate would approach average • More applied baccalaureate options

  13. Possible Policy Choices Increase Enrollments in All Regions

  14. Technical Information on Participation Rates & Forecast by Sub-Populations Participation Rate & Service Levels based on … WR: Students/employed workers (OFM forecast) ABE/GED: Students by age group/adults by age group with less than HS education (American Community Survey (ACS), 2007) Associate +: Students by age group/adults by age group with an associate degree or bachelor’s degree (ACS, 2007) RS: Students/JR and SR in public high schools (Caseload forecast) ESL: Students by age group/adults by age group who speak a language other than English at home and speak English less than well – adults with less than an associate degree (ACS, 2007) “college-level”: Students with less than associate and not in ABE/ESL or WR by age group/adults with less than associate degree (ACS,2007)

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