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Mike Coombes and Tony Champion mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uk tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk Acknowledgements:

BSPS Annual Conference, University of St Andrews, 11-13 September 2007 Poles apart? Assessing whether labour migration to England from the A8 countries has a distinctive geography. Mike Coombes and Tony Champion mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uk tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk Acknowledgements:

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Mike Coombes and Tony Champion mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uk tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk Acknowledgements:

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  1. BSPS Annual Conference, University of St Andrews, 11-13 September 2007Poles apart? Assessing whether labour migration to England from the A8 countries has a distinctive geography Mike Coombes and Tony Champion mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uktony.champion@ncl.ac.uk Acknowledgements: Simon Raybould for the maps

  2. Poles apart? Assessing whether labour migration to England from the A8 countries has a distinctive geography • Background to A8 migration • Data and approach • Comparison of A8 migration with earlier total international immigration • Comparison of A8 and other labour immigration using NINo data for 2005-06 • Analysis of the ‘drivers’ of A8 and other labour migration • Main findings and conclusions

  3. Background to A8 migration • EU enlargement in May 2004: 10 countries comprising Malta, Cyprus and 8 Accession (A8) countries from Central & Eastern Europe • UK, Ireland and Sweden opened borders fully from outset, but transitional arrangements made by the other 12 EU countries • Large numbers have registered for work in UK (>0.6 million under WRS alone), though length of stay not known (so no ‘stock’ counts) • Aim of study: to assess how far this work-related (and mainly short-term) migration has a geography different from other inflows

  4. Data and approach • Analyse data on A8 labour migrants using data from: - Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) set up in UK for employed A8 migrants (but not self-employed), covering first 12 months of work - National Insurance registrations (NINOs), covering both employed and self-employed • Focus on England - as principal destination of A8 migrants • Use TTWAs (170 best-fits from LA/UAs) - consistent with work-related emphasis - raises likelihood of residence and workplace being in same zone (for multivariate analyses)

  5. Comparison of A8 migration with earlier total international immigration Six migration inflows to be compared: • WRSp1: WRS registrations in the first 14 months (May 2004 to June 2005 inclusive) • WRSp2: WRS registrations over the next 18 months (July 2005 to Dec 2006 inclusive) • NI0506A8: NINo registrations by A8 nationals (year ending June 2006) • NI0506all: NINo registrations by all foreign nationals (year ending June 2006) • CensusEA: Census-based counts of economically active residents living outside the UK one year before • IPS0102: IPS-based estimates of immigration from outside the UK and Republic of Ireland for 2001-02

  6. Distribution of England’s immigrant flows between TTWA size groupsNB. Bold = overrepresentation cf 2001 pop (ie. LQ>1.0)

  7. Location Quotients, by TTWA size group, for NINO registrations 2005-06

  8. Location Quotients for 2005-06 NINOs: A8 compared with All foreign, 170 TTWAs All foreign A8

  9. Location Quotients for 2005-06 NINOs: top 10 TTWAs for All foreign, A8 & Other

  10. Location Quotients (logged) for 2005-06 NINOs: A8 compared with Non-A8 (O is crossover of LQ=1.0, unlogged) O

  11. A8/Poles apart? Correlation analysis • Just seen relationship between A8 and all non-A8, r=0.557 • How far does the A8’s LQ pattern across 170 TTWAs compare with that for country groups and individual countries? • Similarly, how does that for Polish nationals differ from that for the other A8 countries? • Correlation analysis, using the publicly available NINO dataset for 2005-06 (data rounded to 10s) • Log of recalculated LQs (nb. 10 added to all NINO raw counts (to remove zeros in the rounded raw data) • For country groups (all non-A8, EU14, rest) and selected countries with 7,000+ NINO registrations

  12. A8 apart? Correlations (r) of logged LQs with country groups, and selected countries (ranked)

  13. Poles apart? Correlations (r) with logged LQs of other A8 nationals (ranked)

  14. A8/Poles apart? Cluster analysis • Cluster analysis to identify communality of log-LQ pattern across the 170 TTWAs • All A8 countries with >7k NINO registering 2005-06, plus ten countries representing southern EU, New World, S Asia • K-mean cluster analysis, requesting 5 clusters, produces:

  15. A8/Poles apart? Explanatory analysis What features of the geographical context are correlated with the NINO-based patterns? Selection of ‘drivers’ to test the effect of: • local economic structure, e.g. % agric, manufacturing, construction/transport, retail/hospitality, other sectors • tightness of local labour market, e.g. employment rate (for all, those with degrees, those without quals) • population size (& log pop), urbanization index • population composition (% non-white, % unqualified) • previous migration (net internal migration rate, net international migration rate, % born in E Europe) • housing costs (unaffordable housing index) • regional location (South vs North)

  16. Simple correlation (r) with logged LQs of A8 and Non-A8: significant at 5% or better, ranked

  17. A8/Poles apart? Regression analysis • Regression analysis to identify the separate key ‘drivers’ and their relative importance for the selected migrant groups • Need to omit variables that are highly (r=>0.6) correlated with each other, with labour market emphasised in selection:

  18. Regression results for A8 versus NonA8 NB. Bold red = significant at 5% level, N = 170 TTWAs

  19. Regression results for A8 versus NonA8

  20. Regression results for Poles vs Other A8 NB. Bold red = significant at 5% level, N = 170 TTWAs

  21. Regression results for Poles vs Other A8

  22. Poles apart? Main findings and conclusions • A8 inflow is less focused on London than total immigration is, but still more than ‘expected’ • More A8s going to smaller TTWAs than for total inflow, but NINO-based share smaller than WRS-based • A8 patterning across 170 TTWAs is closer to EU14 than Rest of World, and most similar to Portugal • 5 of the 6 largest A8 national inflows cluster in one group by themselves – Hungary with just Portugal • Poles parallel Rest-A8 for pull of areas with % born in East Europe, % agric, net immig and retail/hospit’y, but differ on no-quals (-/+) and manufacturing (++/+) • A8 aggregate differs from non-A8 on % agric (+/-), manufacturing (+/-); also pulled more by retail/hospit’y, constr/transp & empl rate among no-quals. But similar response to EEurope-born, South & net immig. • Much ‘unexplained’; check for proxy variables.

  23. BSPS Annual Conference, University of St Andrews, 11-13 September 2007Poles apart? Assessing whether labour migration to England from the A8 countries has a distinctive geography Mike Coombes and Tony Champion mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uktony.champion@ncl.ac.uk Acknowledgements: Simon Raybould for the maps

  24. Annex 1: NINO 2005-06, descriptive stats for LQs of selected country groups and countries, 170 TTWAs

  25. Annex 2: List of independent variables

  26. Regression results for 5 largest A8 NINOs NB. Bold red = significant at 5% level, N = 170 TTWAs

  27. Regression results for 5 largest A8 NINOs

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