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Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-Berlin May 2005

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-Berlin May 2005 Duncan Johnstone Clean Air & Transport Unit DG Environment. Important Caveats.

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Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-Berlin May 2005

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  1. Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-BerlinMay 2005 Duncan Johnstone Clean Air & Transport Unit DG Environment

  2. Important Caveats • The proposed content of the Thematic Strategy on air pollution is currently subject to the internal decision making procedures of the Commission. • There are no guarantees that: • There will be any strategy at all; • That the policy scenarios presented here will ultimately be the basis of the Thematic Strategy

  3. Acknowledgments • The analysis of benefits/costs has been performed by AEA Technology, EMRC & the Catholic University of Leuven (Paul Watkiss, Mike Holland, Denise Van Regermorter) • All reports of the CBA methodology, results and uncertainty analysis are/will be available on the CIRCA website • http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/reference_documents_1/analysis_methodology&vm=detailed&sb=Title • http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/reference_documents_1/cafe_baseline&vm=detailed&sb=Title

  4. Damage costs - baseline • CAFE Baseline report 2000-2020http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/reference_documents_1/cafe_baseline&vm=detailed&sb=Title • Human health impacts monetised • PM, O3 mortality and morbidity • Damage to crops and materials monetised • Ecosystem impacts quantified but not monetised

  5. Baseline Results

  6. BaselineResults(2) Values for use in CAFE CBA: Effects of chronic exposure on mortality. NexExt (2004): New Elements for the Assessment of External Costs from Energy Technologies Project Report for European Commission DG Research, Brussels, Belgium. Contract no.NNE5-2000-00045.

  7. BaselineResults(3)

  8. Baseline Results(4) Monetised Health Benefits NB. Monetised damages to crops and materials are € 3.9 and 2.2 billion in 2000 and 2020.

  9. Different approaches to target setting

  10. Costs/Benefits D23 Scenarios

  11. Benefits and Costs above the Baseline in Billion/year Net benefits increase from low - high different ambition levels – but declining BC: Ratio All scenarios (except baseline) include road transport measures, based on EMEP output with urban increment applied from IIASA Note excludes impacts on ecosystems

  12. Benefits and Costs above the previous step in Billion/year

  13. Benefits by MS (A – “Low”)

  14. Benefits by MS (B - “med”)

  15. Benefits by MS (C - “High”)

  16. Benefits (low) above the Baseline in Euro per person/year

  17. Benefits (low) above the Baseline in Euro per person/year

  18. Benefits (low) above the Baseline in Euro per person/year

  19. Useful Links • More information • http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/cafe_steering_groups/cafe_steering_2005/presentations

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