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Are SUVs “Supremely Unsafe Vehicles?” Analysis of Rollovers and Injuries

Rollover. Non-Rollover. Are SUVs “Supremely Unsafe Vehicles?” Analysis of Rollovers and Injuries Asad J. Khattak & Marta S. Rocha Carolina Transportation Program University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Carolina Transportation Program. Abstract

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Are SUVs “Supremely Unsafe Vehicles?” Analysis of Rollovers and Injuries

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  1. Rollover Non-Rollover Are SUVs “Supremely Unsafe Vehicles?” Analysis of Rollovers and Injuries Asad J. Khattak & Marta S. Rocha Carolina Transportation Program University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Carolina Transportation Program Abstract With increasing speed limits and more light trucks penetrating the market, concern over rollovers is growing. This paper presents a study of how vehicle platforms influence rollovers and injuries. Specifically, we explore: 1) the rollover intensity of vehicle platforms, given single-vehicle crashes and 2) the severity of the resulting driver injury. A federally maintained NASS-CDS (National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System) database was used for crash analysis. This is a detailed and relatively clean stratified sample of police-reported tow-away crashes nationwide. Rollover intensity, captured by the number of quarter-turns, was investigated using weighted negative binomial models; injury severity, measured on the abbreviated injury scale: maximum, critical, severe, serious, moderate, minor and none, was examined using weighted ordered logit models. As expected, SUVs were more likely to roll over and therefore injure drivers more severely. However, SUVs also protected their occupant drivers during collisions due to their greater crashworthiness. • Introduction • ~10,000 deaths and 27,000 serious injuries per year in rollovers; • Press versus Auto-Industry • SUV = “Supremely Unsafe Vehicles”? • SUV = “Safe Utility Vehicles”? Rollover by Platform Car (N = 2,868) SUV(N = 728) Van (N = 182) Pickup (N = 774)

  2. 02 03 06 07 08 12 11 13 14 01 Vehicle Factors (X1) Rollover Occurrence (Y1): Binary Probit Model 1=Rollover 0=No Rollover Crash Factors (X2) Roadway Factors (X3) Most Serious Injury (Y2): Ordered Probit Model AIS Scale: (0 –no injury to 7–max injury) Driver Factors (X4) Restrains (X5) • Key Results • SUVs 29% more likely to rollover compared with passenger cars; • Rollover increase injury severity by 13.8%; • But SUVs reduce injury by 24%; • Given a crash, the net SUV effect on injury is beneficial compared to car. • NASS-CDS Dataset 1997 to 1999 • General vehicle file — vehicles, roadway and environmental conditions and rollover crashes; • Occupant assessment file — data related to drivers and driver behavior such as seat belt use; • Single vehicle crashes in diagram below selected. direct effect = -23.9% 04 05 Injury 29.0% 13.8% Single Driver Rollover SUV 09 10 indirect effect = 4% 16 15 • The crashworthiness effect of SUVs is much greater than the indirect rollover effect on injury severity. Conceptually • Other Results • Driving-off-road and control/traction loss increase rollover intensity; • Posted speeds greater than 80 km/h increase both rollover propensity and intensity; • Tire blowout is associated with greater rollover propensity.

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