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CrimeRisk™ Mapping for Safer Communities

Explore how CrimeRisk™ scores are formulated using demographic clusters, FBI crime data, and national averages. Learn how the model predicts crime likelihood in specific areas across the US.

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CrimeRisk™ Mapping for Safer Communities

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  1. CDS Business Mapping Mapping for the Next Millennium How CrimeRisk™ scores are formed

  2. Basic Premise of Crime Scores • Criminological and Policy Theory dictates that for a particular area, there is a correlation between predicted crime levels and the amount of social disorganization and decline • Crime Score data is modeled by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS) using techniques much like those used to predict economic trends and weather

  3. CrimeRisk Scores • Demonstrate the likelihood of crimes occurring in specific areas across the US • Scores range from 1-2000 • Score of 100 is equal to the national average Examples: • Score of 200 is 2x the national average • Score of 5 is extremely low

  4. How the Model Is Built: • Demographic Clusters are related to crime scores • According to geodemographic segmentation, people tend to gravitate towards communities of similar backgrounds, interests, and means • Demographic Clusters break people down into 65 groups based on characteristics such as: • Age • Income • Education Level • Rural vs. Urban • Family Status • Employment • Housing Characteristics * race and ethnicity are NOT factors in building these scores

  5. Crime Statistics: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, Local Police Data, National Crime Surveys • The FBI collects data from about 16,000 law enforcement jurisdictions at city, county, and state levels • The FBI then compiles the data into its annual Uniform Crime Report (UCR) • Virtually all law enforcement agencies participate

  6. Correlating the Statistics • Crime data is correlated for each cluster • An average score is determined for each cluster • The scores are calculated for each Census Block Group by looking at the demographic make-up (% of each cluster) in each block

  7. Indexes Produced • Aggregate Crime Index • Crimes Against Persons (Combines the 4 below) • Murder • Rape • Robbery • Assault • Crimes Against Property (Combines the 3 below) • Burglary • Larceny • Motor Vehicle Theft

  8. National Averages • 2001: latest fully published report per 100,000 • Murder  5.6 • Rape 31.8 • Robbery 148.5 • Assault 318.5 • Burglary 740.8 • Theft 2484.6 • Motor Vehicle Theft 430.6

  9. RiskMeter Sample Report

  10. Questions? For Further Information, Contact CDS Business Mapping 67 Broad St - 6th Floor Boston, MA 02109 617-737-4444 www.cdsys.com www.riskmeter.com

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