How Can Policy Research Help the Department of Homeland Security?

1. How Can Policy Research Help the Department of Homeland Security? Jack Riley November 18, 2004

2. Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly The Potential Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the U.S. Agricultural and Food Industry A Component in the War on al Qaeda The Dynamic Terrorist Threat PETER CHALK Paul K. Davis Brian Michael Jenkins An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilitiesin a Changing World RAND National Defense Research Institute Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks A Quick Guide Lynn E. Davis, Tom LaTourrette, David E. Mosher, Lois M. Davis, David R. Howell Kim Cragin Sara A. Daly RAND Public Safety and Justice RANDProject AIR FORCE Homeland Security and CounteringTerrorism Are Key Topics for RAND Research

3. Confronting Terrorism Requires a Role for Strategic Policy Planning • Good analogy is the Cold War, where multiple different strategies (MAD, containment, etc) were tried • Governments are generally bad at such planning • Even the creation of DHS does not fully concentrate responsibility • Universities, think tanks and private sector were important to developing the Cold War strategy

4. Developing a Strategy Requires a Roadmap Political, Economic,Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities ThreatAnalysis Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis DirectAction HomelandSecurity Support Denial

5. Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Political, Economic,Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities ThreatAnalysis Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis DirectAction HomelandSecurity Support Denial

6. Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Political, Economic,Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis DirectAction HomelandSecurity Support Denial

7. Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Political, Economic,Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis How can we best allocate scare HS dollars? Does security deter? DirectAction Support Denial

8. Each Component of the Roadmap Requires Research Why do they hate us? What makes them hate us more? Political, Economic,Cultural Sources Strategy, Tactics,Capabilities Offensive/Foreign Military Strategy and Programs Intelligence Strategy and Programs Police and Justice International Development Political Actions Counter- and Non-Proliferation Defensive/Domestic Preventive Measures Response Measures Threat and Risk Analysis How can we best allocate scare HS dollars? Does security deter? DirectAction Support Denial How can we best reduce the supply of terrorists?

9. Is This Kind of Strategic Planning Occurring? • The initial focus was on plugging the security gaps • Appears to be increasing focus on strategic planning issues • The DHS Centers are an excellent start • The Centers do not completely address the issue of “high level policy architecture” • DHS and others should seek long-term, strategic partnerships with multiple organizations