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Introduction. Wed, Aug 31, 2005. Introduction. Syllabus Lectures Assignments Page xi – Interactive Exercises Page xvi – Graphing Calculator. The Scientific Method. Formulate a theory. Collect some data. Summarize the results. Make a decision. The Scientific Method.
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Introduction Wed, Aug 31, 2005
Introduction • Syllabus • Lectures • Assignments • Page xi – Interactive Exercises • Page xvi – Graphing Calculator
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory. • Collect some data. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results. • Make a decision.
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision.
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14.
The Scientific Method • Formulate a theory – Chapter 1. • Collect some data – Chapters 2 – 3. • Summarize the results – Chapters 4 – 5. • Make a decision – Chapters 6 – 14. • Theoretical underpinnings – Chapters 6 – 8. • Making decisions in a variety of situations – Chapters 9 – 14.
Formulate a Theory • This example is taken from Chapter 14, p. 941. • Based on reports from patients, researchers formulate the theory that the following allergy-relief medications cause insomnia in some patients. • Claritin-D • Loratadine • Pseudoephedrine
Formulate a Theory • This theory will be tested by posing it as a question with two competing answers. • Question: Do these medications cause insomnia?
Formulate a Theory • The possible answers are stated more precisely as two competing hypotheses: • “Null:” There is no difference in the insomnia rates among users of these medications nor between them and non-users. • “Research:” There are differences in the insomnia rates.
Collect Some Data • 3036 subjects, some users and some non-users, were studied.
Summarize the Results • We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity: 2 = 154.22.
Summarize the Results • We use some fancy formulas, or use the TI-83, and compute a special quantity: 2 = 154.22. • (If there really is no difference in the insomnia rates, then we “expect” this calculation to yield the value 3, plus or minus a bit.)
Make a Decision • We compare this to a value that we look up in a table, or use the TI-83: Critical value = 7.815. • Since 2 is larger than the critical value, we conclude that the “research” hypothesis is correct: There is a difference in the insomnia rates.
Some Questions • Does this procedure prove that the medications caused the insomnia? • Does it show that the insomnia rates were higher for the groups that took the medications?