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IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham

IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham. TAMING THE NET. Famous Last Words. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.". "640K ought to be enough for anybody.". -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. -- Bill Gates, 1981. Famous Last Words.

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IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham

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  1. IPv6WTC 2000May 10th, Birmingham

  2. TAMING THE NET

  3. Famous Last Words • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." • "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. -- Bill Gates, 1981

  4. Famous Last Words • “32 bits should be enough address space for Internet” -- Vint Cerf, 1977

  5. IP on Everything v6

  6. Television(1926) Electricity(1873) Microwave(1953) Radio(1905) Telephone(1876) VCR(1952) Automobile(1886) PC(1975) Internet(1975) Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity 100 80 60 Percentage of Ownership 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Years Since Introduction

  7. Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000How Many behind Firewalls and NATs? • CAN/US - 125 • Europe - 48 • Asia/Pac - 46 • Latin Am - 10 • Africa - 3 ----------------------------------- • Total - 232 Mio Users

  8. Will IP Scale and remain Robust ? • 75% of traffic on Internet is WWW • 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) • 700 Million web pages (and dark info) • Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) • 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) • Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported • 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002

  9. Can the Internet runQuality & Security in one go? • Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” • Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV • Real-time quality of service support, VoIP • Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)

  10. Internet-enabled DevicesIn need of IP Addresses, at least! • Information appliances • 1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC) • WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games • Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

  11. Non-Traditional Applications Source: Metricom Inc., 1997

  12. InfoCom Application Areas Appliance Person Growing Emerging Notifications ITS Appliance Alarm Telemetry Fax Computer TeIephony Integration Home Banking Email Person Voice Voice Control VoiceMail Maturing Growing

  13. Source: Cadence, 1998

  14. Source: Cadence, 1998

  15. Any Time, Any Where

  16. Wireless Internet • e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras • “always on” networking • increasing demand for IP address space • “Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite • 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

  17. Cerf’s Inversion Today:you go through a circuit switchto get to apacket switch. Tomorrow:you’ll go through a packet switchto get to a circuit switch.

  18. NASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint CerfSpace: the final frontier Our 25 year mission: to go where no network has gone before!

  19. End-to-end information flow across the solar system • Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability • IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times • Integrated communications and navigation services

  20. The Interconnected World

  21. “The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”

  22. Telecom Datacom Mobility 2G Internet The strategic direction Wirelinetelephony Voice over IP GSM 3G (UMTS) 3G Internet WAN/LANdata 1G Internet Mobiledata 1G mobile Internet

  23. Mobile Internet The Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’ 1 B 1,000 Fixed 800 600 Mobile (Millions) Internet 400 200 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

  24. Global IP Mobility Seamless services Mobile Information Society Wireless, secure, high speed access Mobile multimedia Fast Internet & Intranet Messaging internet always on Shared databases & applications Mobile telephony IP Wide AreaCoverage Local AreaCoverage

  25. Cerf’s Prediction • By 2010, 100% of all traffic will be packetized!.

  26. Internet Scaling challenges Great IP Address Crunch QoS Accurate system information Security Authentication and usage tracking Maintain IS technical advantage

  27. Have-Nots IP Address Haves &

  28. Have-Nots IP Address Haves &

  29. IP Robustness & Scalability IPv4 IPv6 Y N N? Y • Address Space Shortage • Security • Cost of System Management • Lack of Capability needed for Next Generation Applications N Y? IPv4 ((NAT))IPv6 1970 1980 1990 2000 IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!

  30. The routing problem is getting out of controlled, despite CIDR!

  31. Early conclusion Internet Growth The Coming Tidal Wave + Wireless Growth + Always-On + Info Soft Appliances  Internet 2000 is a baby! 100 IP Adds/person!

  32. Yv4 Finally The Other Tidal Wave The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complicated the transition will be ! (compare to Y2K!)

  33. IPv6 FORUM Vint CERF Honorary Chairman Outernet: InterPlaNet!

  34. www.ipv6forum.com Join the Future, Now! THANK YOU

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