WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002

1. WDTB Winter Wx WorkshopOct. 8-11, 2002 Summary

2. Why Train on Winter Wx? • Significant hazard to life and property • 70-80 deaths / year • $ 1 to 2 Billion / year • Very difficult to forecast mesoscale events, pinpoint locations/timing/precip type of many large scale events due to complex nature of phenomena

3. Performance Measures • 15 hr Lead Time on Warnings • 90% POD • 27% FAR • Focus on science and societal impacts to improve services

4. New Policy DirectivesNWSI 10-513 • Outlooks • >30 % chance of event in next 3-5 days • Watches • >50 % chance of event in next 12-48 hrs • Warnings • 80% chance of event exceeding local criteria in next 36 hrs • Mention specific amounts

5. New Directives • Get out of comfort zone • Learn from failure • Develop local criteria that meets user needs • Determine optimal lead times for decision makers

6. Winter Weather Forecast Process • PDS Competency Units based on Specific Job Duties in the Winter Weather Warning Process The PDS includes training on the tools, methodologies, time lines, and strategies used in preparing winter weather watches, advisories, and warnings

7. User Needs(PCU1) Assess customer requirements and societal impacts related to our winter weather products and services Optimize lead times to help decision makers IC 1 Eastern Region Best Practices Report See handout and user needs presentation

8. Climatology(PCU 2) • Rarity of storms (use Grumm’s web site) • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/sigwxau02-new.ppt • Recognize Arctic Outbreak Patterns • See Brad Bramer’s presentation

9. Conceptual Models (PCU 3 – 4) • Important to give physical basis for forecast adjustments • Subjective and Objective forecaster techniques Synoptic NWP Mesoscale Adjustments IFPS grids

10. NWP (PCU 2-4) • Continues to improve with better resolution pcpn schemes • Know changes to GFS, Eta, NMM, RUC-20, SREF output • METED web site • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/WHATSNEW.PPT

11. HPC Guidance (PCU 2 to 4 ) • Use it • Know terms • Coordinate with HPC • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/winterwx2.shw

12. Ensembles (PCU 2-3) • Use them in objective forecast process to recognize consistencies or uncertainties in model output • Not always right! • http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

13. Synoptic Assessment(PCU 3) • QG forcing and Fn • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT • Ingredients method (4-panel method of diagnosis) • http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.html

14. Precipitation Type Forecasting(PCU 3-4) • Microphysics (top down approach) • Know strengths and limitations of various precipitation type techniques / algorithms (eg, Ramer, Bourgouin, Baldwin, etc) • Use BUFKIT (dendritic growth zone, pcpn type) • http://wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/index.html • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shw • Complete exercise form using BUFKIT

15. Precip Type Fcstg Methodologybeyond 72 hours (PCU 3) • Use pattern recognition and assess thickness values

16. Precip Type Fcstg Methodology24 to 72 hours (PCU 3) • Use most consistent model to target potential • Top down approach • Ice… –12C • Identify range of possibilities

17. Precip Type Fcstg Methodologywithin 24 hours of expected event(PCU 4) • Still use top down approach with higher resolution models but begin to incorporate more remotely sensed data to modify model output

18. Mesoscale Analysis /Real-time(PCU 4 – 5) • Banding potential (location of Fn) • SPC meso guidance • Use satellite trends for timing of features, forcing mechanisms, tstms can warm sfc T • Radar orientations/ echo circles/bright band • Use Spotters • http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/frontogenesis_talk_020809.ppt

19. Topo forcing (PCU 4) • Know basics of mountain flow • COMET web site • http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/flowtopo/index.htm • Improved grid spacing can help

20. Use of Mesoscale Models(PCU 4) • Goal is to improve knowledge of the forecast process and use of mesoscale models • Big Bang for Buck • Can help forecasters determine local responses to various weather regimes • If you capture the forcing, you can capture the response • See Bob Roz.’s LAM considerations (domain size, time, resolution, phenom of interest)

21. Forecasting Blizzards/High winds(PCU 5) • Recognize factors for development • Brad Bramer’s talk • Review representative case study (Sept. 11, 2001)

22. Effective Communication(PCU 6) • Timing is everything • Make sure our products tell the whole story • Snow accum not enough • societal impacts should be coordinated prior to the season

23. IFPS Smart Tools • Precipitation type algorithm

24. ScenarioLessons Learned • Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped in the decision-making process • SREF ensembles helped in the forecast process • 4-panels of “ingredients”, 2-D Fn helpful, model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p-type forecasting (Weta) • satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and amounts

25. Where do you go from here? • All presentations will be on WDTB winter weather web site (wdtb.noaa.gov ) • Make training stick by being an example • Use the PDS on winter weather • You’ll be hearing from us after this winter to see how techniques & training were applied

26. Making Training Stick Like Glue • Plan • Research • Inform and communicate expectations • Objectively Observe • Role Model • Inspire, instill, internalize • Test techniques • Yes attitude

27. Summary