The Process of EU Enlargement: Integration or Disintegration?

1. The Process of EU Enlargement: Integration or Disintegration? Dr Michael J. Geary Assistant Professor, Maastricht University, The Netherlands Global Fellow, The Wilson Center, Washington, DC The European Union Studies Center The Graduate Center The City University of New York 21 March 2014

2. Enlargement and the Process of EU Integration: Structure of the Workshop Origins of the application, motivations and expectations 2. A painful birth – the first enlargement (1961-73) 3. From Athens to Brussels – the second accession (1970s to 1981) 4. Club Med – Spain and Portugal and the third enlargement (1986) 5. Round Four: Austria, Sweden and Finland (1990s) 6. The Big Bang: 10+3 6. Conclusions Michael J. Geary

3. Origins of the application, motivations and expectations • Enlargement not easily explained • The Treaty of Rome – Art. 237 made provision for membership • Art. 238 provided for associate membership • Policy and Institutional Framework appealed to some • Leadership in Europe attracted others Michael J. Geary

4. A Painful Birth – The First Enlargement, 1961-73 • Free Trade Area, 1956-58 • European Free Trade Association, 1959 • 1960: Europe of 6s and 7s • A question of (bad) timing? Michael J. Geary

5. Britain and Tortuous Road to Europe ‘We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked, but not compromised. We are interested and associated, but not absorbed … we belong to no single Continent, but to all.’ Winston Churchill, House of Commons speech, 1930 ‘The wind of change is blowing through this continent, and whether we like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political fact. We must all accept it as a fact, and our national policies must take account of it.’, Harold Macmillan, 3 Feb. 1960 Harold Macmillan, British Prime Minister, 1957-63 Michael J. Geary

6. Britain and Tortuous Road to Europe From laggard to leader of an enlarged ‘core Europe’? – Wolfram Kaiser Letter of Application, August 1961 Enlargement negotiations open, Autumn, 1961 – January 1963 Negotiating an empire? De Gaulle’s idea of Europe ‘If England asks in turn to enter, but on her own conditions, this poses without doubt to each of the six States, and poses to England, problems of a very great dimension. England in effect is insular, she is maritime, she is linked through her exchanges, her markets, her supply lines to the most diverse and often the most distant countries; she pursues essentially industrial and commercial activities, and only slight agricultural ones. She has in all her doings very marked and very original habits and traditions.’ CDG, 14 January 1963 The will of the General but not the general will Michael J. Geary

7. Britain and Tortuous Road to Europe Second try – Harold Wilson and the Labour Govt. May 1967: application and veto in same week De Gaulle’s velvet veto, 16 May 1967 – British economy would destabilise the EEC Pound Sterling devalued Nov. 1967 De Gaulle – I told you so! Repeats veto 27 Nov. Apr. 1969 – De Gaulle’s resigns as President the French Fifth Republic Georges Pompidou succeeds More flexible on enlargement question Michael J. Geary

8. Britain and Tortuous Road to Europe • Summer 1970 – Enlargement negotiations open • New Conservative Govt. led by Edward Heath • Britain’s contribution to the Community budget Expectations, disappointments and structural ambivalence Post-accession: gap between expectations of benefits and the reality of the integration experience Pursued erratic European policies Marginalised Britain even more Heath signs the Treaty of Accession, 22 Jan. 1972 Michael J. Geary

9. Ireland – The Economics of Community Membership The decision to enter: The apron strings of Britain or the purse strings of Europe? Common Agricultural Fund Structural Policy Michael J. Geary

10. Ireland – The Economics of Community Membership • July 1961 - first application • No formal negotiations open • Questions over Irish suitability for membership – neutrality/NATO • De Gaulle’s veto also excludes Ireland • May 1967 – second application • The General’s second ‘non’ • Irish eyes not smiling • Summer 1970 – negotiations open • Challenging the Acquis: Common Fisheries Policy • Plenty of fish in the sea? We’re in! Signing the Treaty of Accession 22 Jan. 1972 Referendum on 10 May 1972 1.2 million voted, just over 1m said ‘Yes’ Michael J. Geary

11. Denmark – divided opinion • Member of the EFTA – Britain was Denmark’s main trading partner • Follows the same path to membership – the same setbacks • After 1955, Denmark opted for Nordic trade over ECSC – steel market was more important • Late 1950s, early 1960s – close relations with France and West Germany and Commission • Sitting on the fence: Split between EFTA and EEC • Follow the leader – Denmark applies for membership of EEC in Aug. 1961 • Despite veto – CDG wanted Denmark to join • 1970 -72 enlargement talks • Few problems – motivation was to gain access to new markets for swelling exports • Norwegian vote 25 Sept. 1972, 53% said ‘No’ • Referendum on 2 Oct. – 63.3% voted ‘Yes’ (turnout was 90.1%) Michael J. Geary

12. Round Two – Fast-Track Membership: Greece • The first enlargement: success or setback for integration process? • British renegotiation and referendum on membership, 1974-5 • Oil crises and economic stagnation of 1970s • Greece – the tenth member of the Community in 1981 • Economically classified in category of a poor, agrarian, raw-material-extracting, • trade-dependent, and externally indebted nation • In short: under-developed • History of modern Greece – continuous trends of foreign intervention & interference • by competing Great Powers • 1974 – application for membership, mainly for political reasons • Paramount for achieving political stability Michael J. Geary

13. Round Two – Fast-Track Membership: Greece • The application should be interpreted primarily as a security policy decision • The negotiations – not a smooth process • Formal talks: 27 July 1976 – 23 May 1979 • Commission’s Avis (Opinion) on Greek membership – lukewarm statement • Prospect of accession met with considerable scepticism • Commission proposed a ‘pre-accession stage’ to precede any transitional period • The Community could become a party to the ‘Aegean Cold War’ • Economic considerations were subordinated to political ones • Economic implications of accession were never considered seriously • Globalisation of enlargement – Spain and Portugal Michael J. Geary

14. Club Med – The Third Enlargement Spain • Hans Dietrich Genscher, German Foreign Minister: ‘The democracies of Europe are expecting Spain as a partner … That is why the Federal Government is keen on paving the way for Spain to become a full member of Europe.’ (10 Jan. 1976) • End of dictatorship – General Francisco Franco dies 20 Nov. 1975 – restoration of • the monarchy (Juan Carlos I) • Transition process towards democracy launched – relations with EC restored • Spaniards determined to gain membership – July 1976, declaration of intent • Large scale support in Spain for accession • Constitution of 1978 – a ‘social and democratic state’ where the • rule of law was guaranteed • Britain (1977): Enlargement was an investment in Europe’s democratic future • July 1977 – formal application made for membership Michael J. Geary

15. Club Med – The Third Enlargement Spain • French scepticism • Spain – a shock for Europe: political & economic shock for the Common Market • PM Jacques Chirac, Spanish accession ‘unbearable’ for French agriculture • Exclude Spain from CAP and simply negotiate an association treaty with EC • By 1978, three applications on Community’s table – Southern enlargement • seemed irreversible • Positive assessment from the Commission (Nov. ’78) – exemplary political transition • Giscard D’Estaing raised serious objections (June ’80): conscious of agriculture vote • Member States had to solve internal issues before further enlargement took place • Common Agricultural Policy & Community budget had to be revised first • Shift in position – Spanish economic threat was taking shape between 1978-80 • François Mitterrand reiterated same objections – resolve old problems first • June 1982 – application came to a halt … kick-started again in 1983 Michael J. Geary

16. Club Med – The Third Enlargement Portugal – the end of empire and move to Europe • Dictatorship under Salazar and decolonisation • International acceptance after World War Two • Founding member of NATO, member of OEEC, European Payments Union & • recipient of Marshall aid • Pre-accession vision of Portugal: an Atlantic country, maritime power, • colonial empire in Africa. Not concerned with Continental European issues • Collapse of the dictatorship, military coup d'état 25 April 1974 • Independence of Guinea, Angola and Mozambique (1974, ‘75) • EC support – for pluralist democracy! • Portugal’s formal application for membership, March 1977 – 7 years to conclude Michael J. Geary

17. Round Four: Austria, Finland, and Sweden (1990s) • Austria • 1955 Constitutional Article: ‘Austria declares of her own free will her perpetual neutrality’ • And ‘in all future times Austria will not join any military alliances and will not permit the establishment of any foreign military bases on her territory’ • Non-Alignment and Russian influence • 1990s – geo-political climate changes • Finland– a fundamental turning point in its history • A cautious ‘wait and see’ approach during Cold War • One eye on the West, the other on the East • Swedish application 1991 – a shock to Finland • The imperative to join the EU was increased • Issue of neutrality, Maastricht and CFSP Michael J. Geary

18. Round Four: Austria, Finland, and Sweden (1990s) • Sweden • Traditional policy of non-alignment with ability to play international role • Founding member of OEEC & Council of Europe • Aversion to integration/supranational institutions but open to free trade • Yet, enlargements had increased importance of EC by mid-1980s • Renegotiate EFTA-EC agreements → collapse of the Soviet Union • Membership as an economic imperative by 1990 • 1 July 1991 – application for EC membership Michael J. Geary

19. The Big-Bang Enlargement (+3) • 1990s – a decade of transformation • Fall of the Berlin Wall and German Re-unification • Collapse of the Soviet Union • CEE Membership Requests • Treaty Reform • Enlargement and the Copenhagen Criteria (1993) Michael J. Geary

20. The Big-Bang Enlargement (+3) • Maastricht Treaty: 3 Pillars • The European Union is born • Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) • Amsterdam (1998) • Nice (2001) • Constitutional Treaty (2005) – R.I.P. • Lisbon (2009) Michael J. Geary

21. The Big-Bang Enlargement (+3) • Central and Eastern Europe, Cyprus and Malta (2004), Romania, Bulgaria (2007) and Croatia (2013) • Too many too soon? Free Movement Directive • In the Waiting Room: Turkey • Serbia, Kosovo, Scotland, Catalonia …. • Exits? Will Britain Leave? Michael J. Geary

22. Enlargement: Integration or Disintegration? Explaining Enlargement: Integration theory – one size does not fit all Complex set of explanations for each enlargement The ability to opt in/out – does it weaken the integration process? Once countries join, why are they treated differently? Enlargement and institutional change – increased role for the Commission? Michael J. Geary