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ความรุนแรงที่ยืดเยื้อเรื้อรังในสถานการณ์การเมืองที่ไม่แน่นอนก่อนการเลือกตั้ง 2554. ศรีสมภพ จิตร์ภิรมย์ศรี Deep South Watch (DSW) Center for Conflict Studies and Cultural Diversity (CSCD) Prince of Songkla University, Pattani campus. สถานการณ์ปัจจุบัน. Source: Deep South Watch.
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ความรุนแรงที่ยืดเยื้อเรื้อรังในสถานการณ์การเมืองที่ไม่แน่นอนก่อนการเลือกตั้ง 2554 ศรีสมภพ จิตร์ภิรมย์ศรี Deep South Watch (DSW) Center for Conflict Studies and Cultural Diversity (CSCD) Prince of Songkla University, Pattani campus
Victims of Violence by Occupations from 2004 to 2010 bureaucrats working in local government teachers government employees youths village headmen Defence volunteers civilians policemen soldiers Source: Deep South Watch
2007—Mobilization of Forces De-escalatory Move by the Army Source: Deep South Watch
Protracted Conflicts Many complex and deep-rooted conflicts seem, empirically, to reach some “plateau” in their relationship, and become trapped in a repetitive pattern of interaction—usually involving the exchange of violent or coercive behaviors —that seems dynamic, yet stable Christopher R. Mitchell, Berghof Handbook Dialogue Series, 15
If the trend of violence still holds, it may imply that the conflict and violence have been perpetuated. • Conflict perpetuation
Many conflicts become less a matter of the original and underlying goal incompatibility, but more a matter of becoming trapped in an extended action-reaction sequence in which today’s conflict behavior by one side is a response to yesterday’s by the adversary. Dennis Sandole, 1999
How to find alternative approach? Pre-pre Negotiation Phrase! Negotiation Phrase Implementation Turning Point Pre-Negotiation Phrase Agreement New Conflict (Non-violence) ? Tract I Tract II Tract III Model Developed by Norbert Ropers
จุดเปลี่ยนเหตุการณ์ ขั้นก่อน-ก่อน การเจรจา ขั้นก่อน การเจรจา ขั้น การเจรจา การตกลงทางการเมือง ดำเนินการสันติภาพ ความขัดแย้งใหม่ที่ไม่ใช้ความรุนแรง How to find alternative approach? Pre-pre Negotiation Phrase! Negotiation Phrase Implementation Turning Point Pre-Negotiation Phrase Agreement New Conflict (Non-violence) ? Tract I Tract II Tract III Model Developed by Norbert Ropers
ตัวแบบการเปลี่ยนแปลงความขัดแย้งสามแนวทาง วิถีทางที่ 1 Track1 วิถีทางที่ 2 Track2 วิถีทางที่ 3 Track3 องค์กรประชาสังคม กลุ่มวิชาชีพ นักวิชาการ องค์กรพัฒนาเอกชน องค์กรประชาชนระดับ รากหญ้า รัฐบาล ทหาร กับผู้ก่อการ ขบวนการใต้ดิน ตัวแสดงบทบาทที่สำคัญ เน้นที่ผลการเจรจาต่อรองสันติภาพ การหาข้อมูลความเป็นตริง การบังคับให้เป็นไปตามข้อตกลง เน้นที่กระบวนการ การปรึกษาหารือ การประชุมเสวนาแลกเปลี่ยนความเห็น ข้อเสนอรูปแบบการปกครองโดยภาคประชาชน กลยุทธ์ที่สำคัญ เน้นที่กระบวนการ และโครงสร้าง การสร้างความเข้มแข็งขององค์กรระดับรากหญ้า การพัฒนาบุคลากร งานด้านความยุติธรรมและสิทธิมนุษยชน
Violence Factors Injustice and Poverty Structural Violence Physical Violence Identity Politics Symbolic Violence Overt Violence Latent Violence
Violence Factors & Peace building Peace-building processes to deal with these factors Structural Violence Actors &Agencies 1. Independence Movements 2. State Violent Actors Physical Violence Symbolic Violence
Peace Initiatives Mobilized Through Civil Society and Media Networks Peace building is considered as the discursive processes bringing about simultaneous and successive emergence of various discursive objects that are named, described, analyzed, appreciated or judged in the relation.
We emphasize on the interplay between the formation of object of discourse (s) to transform the conflicts through ideas and thought. • The interplay means the fields to play • The common ground • Building peace objects of discourse needs broader network of civil society organizations and communication networks.
Discursive Formation Model for Conflict Transformation Common Ground Academic knowledge/ Researches Self-Governance Peace Talks/Dialogues Local-National Media and communications Justice Civil Society Movements
The Discursive Processes • identity, culture, and religion As for the progress Movements produce objects of discourse and the other way round.
From brainstorming among civil society and media networks, it was found that there were 3 strategies or 3 main issues : • Re-structuring the political and administrative power structure. The 23 members of the Deep South Civil Society Networks, the "People's Network for Greater Involvement in Governance of the Deep South Provinces," are currently mobilizing for a "Special Autonomous Region" under the framework of the constitution.
The Networks have accumulated its knowledge and culminated in the (Draft) Report on the Study of Special Local Governance in the Deep South under the Thai Constitution". The attempt to find a way to co-existence based on local demands is currently being modified through in-depth opinion sueveys and developed into a draft Act. In the near future, the network will use existing channels to propose laws as designated by the constitution.
The processes would also attempt to building justice, the human rights in determining people's own life and expression of identity, culture, and religion. • The injustice issue has been cronic problem on the grounds
What is the major cause of insurgency in Southern region? ความไม่เป็นธรรมต่างๆ injustice insurgency poverty lack of education Justice problems are major concerns crimes Population problems Self-Governance resources problem Public opinions survey of local people in 2010
Network activities would become a common, neutral space, ....... • ..... engaging all parties into inclusive peace dialogue, not leaving the matter as a conflict between the state and the separatists.
In the process, peace discourses would be central issue in political space, reproducing through public opinions and media. • Once the media space could bring about the political space on peace discourses, the discursive formation is successfully defined.
It would set in motion changing behavior and attitudes of violent actors. Social Structure/Social Values Galtung’s basic structure of conflict Situation Behavior Attitudes Source: Christopher R. Mitchell, Berghof Handbook Dialogue Series, 19
The Operation of Process Model Patani Metropolitan academic forums
Online broadcasting on the academic forum of Pattani metropolitan initiative 学会のオンライン生中継「タイ憲法下のパッタニー国：夢物語か現実か？」 生中継!!! 学会｢タイ憲法下のパッタニー国：夢物語か現実か｣ 仏歴2552[西暦2009]年12月10日 8:30～17:00 [更新された関連ブログへのリンク。訳は省略] [関連記事へのリンク。タイトルと記事の書き出しが引用されているが、タイトルのみ訳] ｢自治の可能性と我々の将来｣ ｢前進するタイミング…市民セクターが憲法下の｢特別区｣を後押し｣ ｢特別統治区と新たな同一国家のありかたを理解する：欧州の経験からの報告｣
Raising the Southern issues and peace agenda to the political parties during the campaigns for upcoming general election …………………..
The Resolutionary Changes • The the peace discourse formation and discursive processes will be a constitutive drive for setting the stage for changes – in leaders, in minds, in behaviors and in environments of conflicts on the deep South.
Change Agents? • Intermediaries who are “insider-partials” ….. • Intermediaries who are “outsider-neutrals” • The former have a number of advantages over the latter that can enable them to operate more effectively in cultures that value third parties, understanding the interests of both adversaries, as well as an existing relationship to both.
Prospect for the Future • Civil society, media networks, academics and intra-national human rights organizations are supposed to work to produce ideas about alternative futures and strategies or to build bridges between local adversaries or hold informal dialogues exploring issues of readiness for talks or underlying interests.
Who are the change agents ? • How do we proceed to the condition for the pre-negotiation stage? • Can we transform the conflict structure?
Roles and Challenges to International Support to the Peace Process
Key Issues • Because of the long-term severity of violence, Patani conflict has become one of the hot spots in the world’s mapping of conflict regions. • Increasing international concerns about the peace-building and conflict resolution in Patani region.
Central to the Patani issue is the identity politics and its consequences. • The major actors and agencies are the Thai authorities, the independence movements, and different group of people in the Patani region.
