Poli 103A California Politics Race as a Political Issue: Demographics and Initiatives

1. Poli 103A California PoliticsRace as a Political Issue: Demographics and Initiatives

2. Race as a Political Issue • Wedge Issues • Definition • Examples of famous initiatives • Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Loss? • Effects of Prop. 187 on Latino participation • Effects of Prop. 187 on Republican Party fortunes

3. The End of the Rainbow: Wedge Issues and Their Backlash • A wedge issue is “used by candidates of one party to attract voters who usually support the other party – in effect, driving a wedge between the opposition and its normal supporters.” • A wedge can split the other party, a minority group, or a group coalition.

4. What Makes a Wedge Work? Successful Wedges Unsuccessful Wedges Voters might have opinions on the issue, but not a strong enough opinion to choose a candidate All candidates are on one side, effectively taking the wedge off the table • Present voters with a salient issue, big enough to motivate their candidate choice • Give voters a clear choice between candidates who take different sides on the wedge issue

5. The End of the Rainbow: Wedge Issues and Their Backlash • Passed by a 59-41% margin in 1994, Prop. 187 would have prevented state and local governments from providing social services, education, and non-emergency medical care to illegal immigrants. • It fueled Pete Wilson’s dramatic comeback, with 36% of Democrats supporting it and 19% of Dems supporting Wilson over Kathleen Brown. • Opposition to 187 was highest among Latinos (77%), Jews (55%), and blacks and Asians (53%).

6. The End of the Rainbow: Wedge Issues and Their Backlash • Passed by a 55%-45% margin in 1996, Prop. 209 ended gender and race preferences by state and local governments, in fields such as public universities, public employment, and government contracts. • Favored 51-36% by whites, opposed 57-27% by Latinos, opposed 66-18% by blacks, and opposed 53%-31% by Asians. • It failed to help Bob Dole as a wedge issue, because Democratic voters did not care about it enough to switch from Bill Clinton to Bob Dole.

7. The New Rainbow Politics: Gay Rights As A Wedge Issue • In November 2008, Proposition 8, “The California Marriage Protection Act,” placed a ban on same-sex marriage into the state constitution by a 52%-48% margin. A national exit poll reported: • 49% support by white voters • 70% support by African-American voters • 53% support by Latinos • 49% support by Asian-Americans

8. Political Geography of Prop. 8

9. The New Rainbow Politics: Gay Rights As A Wedge Issue • Partisan Wedge? Barack Obama straddled the issue, personally supporting only civil unions but opposing divisive campaigns to constitutionalize the debate • 36% of Democrats supported Prop. 8 • 82% of Republicans (and McCain) supported • Generational Split: • 36% of those aged 18-24 supported Prop. 8 • 61% of those aged 65 or over supported it

10. The End of the Rainbow: Wedge Issues and Their Backlash • Since the Prop. 187 campaign, Latino voters have been energized Democrats. • The number of new citizens in the state jumped from 178,000 in 1993-1994 to 515,000 in 1995-1996. • In 1996, 67% of newly registered Latinos voted, up from 43% in 1994. • Latinos voted 73-21% Democratic in 1996, after voting 52%-40% Dem in 1992.

11. Long-Term Impact of Prop. 187:From Purple to Blue? California Senators: 1944–1992 California Senators: 1992–2008 (16 years x 2 senators = 32 senator years) Republicans: 0 Democrats: 32 • (48 years x 2 senators = 96 senator years) • Republicans: 54 years • Democrats: 42 years

12. Fiorina and Abrams:“Latino Electoral Importance is Growing”

13. Fiorina and Abrams:“But Not As Much As Often Assumed”

14. Discussion Questions • Was Pete Wilson framed, as Fiorina and Abrams argue, or did Prop. 187 really doom future Republican prospects in the state? • Are generational demographics destiny for same-sex marriage issues, meaning that support will inevitably rise as your generation gets older, or not?