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Forecasting UK Ratings Numbers

This study proposes a novel forecasting model for UK Officer ratings, integrating entry, exit assumptions, and wastage rates. By analyzing departmental stock, demographics, and retirement ages, the model aims to improve projections accuracy. The assessment shows sensitivity to key assumptions and underscores the importance of precise data for effective implementation

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Forecasting UK Ratings Numbers

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  1. Forecasting UK Ratings Numbers Proposed Methodology D. Glen & J. Dowden

  2. Background • UK Officer data significantly improved • Ratings information still limited • New surveys will provide information on • stock of ratings by department, age, gender • data on ratings wastage rates

  3. The Proposed Model • Based on the one developed for UK Officer Projections • Essentially a stock model adjusted for entry and exit assumptions • S - stock of ratings, E = entry rate, w = % of ratings of age i who leave

  4. i + (1 - w ) 64 i S (E S = Fit) t+1 t + 1 i = 16 Formula

  5. Previous Performance

  6. Ratings Projections • Scenario 1 • Entry a fixed proportion of existing stock (4%) • Wastage also 4% • Implies decline in numbers because of Age Profile • Two retirement ages - 65 or 57

  7. Scenario 1

  8. Scenario 2 • Assume 100 new ratings per year aged 17-20 • Wastage rates • 20 < 40 - 6% per year • 40 + - 1% per year • Two retirement ages - 65 or 57

  9. Scenario 2 (Age 65)

  10. Scenario 2 (Age 57)

  11. Scenario Comparisons • Projections to 2010 sensitive to different assumptions about wastage/retirement • Age 65 • Scenario 1 - fall of 7.7% • Scenario 2 - rise of 1.1% • Age 57 • Scenario 1 - fall of 13.8% • Scenario 2 - rise of 1.4%

  12. Conclusions • Scenario simulation suggests forecasts are sensitive to key assumptions • Very important to obtain accurate wastage data if this model is to be employed • Future work will involve calibrating the model with empirical wastage data from future surveys

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