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BUFKIT for Balloonists: Weather Analysis and Forecasting Software

Learn how to install and use BUFKIT software to analyze winds aloft, temperatures, inversions, and fog/precipitation forecasting for balloon flights. Explore computer models like NAM, GFS3, and RUC to interpret the expected state of the atmosphere. Discover the BUFKIT visual display and the crossover temperature technique for fog forecasting.

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BUFKIT for Balloonists: Weather Analysis and Forecasting Software

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  1. BUFKIT for Balloonists Jay Trobec, Ph.D. KELOLAND TV Sioux Falls, SD jaytrobec.com

  2. Questions we will answer • How do I install the free software on my computer? • What is a computer model? • What does BUFKIT tell us about… • Winds aloft? • Temperatures? • Inversions? • Fog/Precipitation forecasting?

  3. How do I install it on my computer?

  4. Computer models • Give us an approximation of the expected state of the atmosphere • They do not “forecast” the weather – interpretation is required • Three models are beneficial to balloonists, and can be displayed with BUFKIT software • NAM (North American Mesoscale) • GFS3 (Global Forecast System) • RUC (Rapid Update Cycle)

  5. BUFKIT data

  6. BUFKIT visual display

  7. NAM (also called the WRF) Model • Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST) • 12 km resolution • 1 hr increments • 84 hrs

  8. GFS Model • Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST) • 0.5 deg lat/lon • 3 hr increments • 180 hrs

  9. RUC (also called RAP or HRRR) Model • Created every hour • 13 km resolution • 18 hrs

  10. BUFKIT Temperature/Wind Display

  11. BUFKIT Overview Wind Display

  12. Overview Clouds Display Sky Box Plotted Implied .00 - .09 none Clear .10 - .24 Single Cross Hatched Few .25 - .49 Double Cross Hatched Scattered .50 - .74 Gray Broken .75 - 1.00 White Overcast

  13. Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) • Decrease of temperature with altitude in a stationary atmosphere • 0.5°C/100 meters • 3.5°F /1000 feet 1500 ft: 54.8° 1000 ft: 56.5° 500 ft: 58.3° Ground: 60°

  14. Subsidence, sinking air under High pressure Warm Fronts or Cold Fronts Temperature Inversion • Thin layer in the atmosphere in which air temperature increases with height • Caused by:

  15. Subsidence Inversion

  16. Radiational Inversion

  17. Effects of Inversion • Speed of ascent slows when rising through subsidence layer

  18. Effects of Inversion • Speed of descent slows when descending through layer

  19. Effects of Inversion • Winds often have different directions/speeds above and below an inversion

  20. Inversion display on BUFKIT

  21. Fog forecasting • BUFKIT utilizes “crossover temperature” technique developed by UPS • Also assesses change in humidity with height, and atmospheric stability • Technique is designed for radiational fog, not advection or other types of fog

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