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July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using Computers New Personal Computer Uses. July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation.

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July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

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  1. Six Future Challenges:50 years afterThe Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using ComputersNew Personal Computer Uses July 16, 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation

  2. From Questionable...Great Research & Book Reports to Poor...Profitable Product:“and then a miracle happens” For New Uses of PCs Conference…also New Paradigms for Using Computers July 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. Bay Area Research Center

  3. Research to Product Models • The Classical, Feed-Forward Process • Gov’t Model I. Fund product development & then buy the products • Gov’t Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product. • “We invented it, now productize it, stupid” PARC I • “We invented something, let’s at least try to get our money back.” PARC II • Fund a company for research & development • Research as a recruiting tool • Hire good people, encourage interaction • Hire good people, large projects, do startups • Do it in/with product development • Fund university research and pray…

  4. Heuristics for Government Funding • Fund University Research • Issue “buy” challenges to foster competition

  5. The two great inventions • The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans • Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them • Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion • The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). • Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels • A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies

  6. 1GB 128MB 1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB) 8MB 1MB 128KB 8KB 1980 1990 2000 1970 256M bits: 1K 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M Moore’s First Law • Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year • Chip density • Microprocessor speed • Exponential growth: • The past does not matter • 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change • PC costs decline faster than any other platform • Volume and learning curves • PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

  7. Platform evolution: How do they all connect?

  8. Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1 Storage Backbone Processing Memory ?? Telephone Service17% / year 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

  9. Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 60%= Exaops 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 40%= Petaops 20%= Teraops 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

  10. Alternative Computing Futures • Metropolis (1926) • Forbidden Planet (1956) • 2001 (1968) Photos courtesy of Microsoft Cinemania

  11. Going forward… SIX challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

  12. Turing test: you can’t tell who’s on the other end when communicating with a machine using • Text • Voice • Visual image and voice

  13. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

  14. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Body Continent Car Region/ Intranet Home Campus, including SANs World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

  15. “Everything will be in Cyberspace” • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them • Infrastructure supports the content • Three evolutionary dimensions

  16. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock • State of: places, things, and people • State of: physical networks

  17. Atoms vs Electrons for bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) people know computers know bricks & mortar anywhere (personnel/clients) office hours anytime database & reports web access for review and transactions letter & fax email & web access phone email, voice & video mail personal visits videophone / videomail signature authenticated images envelopes digital envelopes / store

  18. By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

  19. Why this is the keystone bet! • It determines the market • for networks • for access devices… especially PCs • It says something about the utility • commerce • communication • entertainment • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables • phones • videophones • television • serendipity

  20. Internetters growth 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

  21. Internetters growth World Population 10000 1000 100 10 TVs & Phones “1 Gp by 2000”Negroponte PCs Internetters ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

  22. WWW books, newspapers Infoway regulation Infoway promise: “how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.) Infoway addiction conferences lawsuits Growth in hype Data from Gordon’s WAG

  23. Programs, Content & messages Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Cyberization Communication

  24. Data Telephony Television Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

  25. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

  26. Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

  27. New or old money… it’s just bits Credit ATM / Prepaid Check Cash Prepaid

  28. Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

  29. Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.

  30. Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

  31. Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) money database, smart card, credit card, debit card statements web access bills / checks bill present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock database, web statements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placements web access, email trade confirmation direct trades mail voting on line voting

  32. Going forward… challenges Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation Everything will be in Cyberspace Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk” Telepresence The Guardian Angel for health The Cyber Admin for personal use

  33. Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling • Telepresentations • Telemeetings • The “work”

  34. Motivation:Telepresentations • Presenter and/or audience telepresent • NOT: meeting or collaboration settings • Forget the nasty social issues! Mostly one-way

  35. TelepresentationElements • Slides • Audio • Video • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

  36. Telepresentations:The Essentials • Slide and audio a must • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good • Storage and transmission costs low

  37. Telepresentations:The Killer App • Increased attendance & lower travel costs • Practical and low-cost NOW • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

  38. Today’sExperiment • Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? • Do you wish you could have seen this • At home? • At another time? • How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?

  39. Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

  40. Telepresence hold a meeting of type, m university or technical course interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”, with p, distributed persons with as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresent meetings are provably more productive meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

  41. Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

  42. Mobile videophone

  43. Honda Robot

  44. People surrogates

  45. Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

  46. By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. “ Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed) ”

  47. Living in Cyberspace

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